A 'Record-Breaking and Dangerous' Heat Wave Is About to Hit the West Coast
Jun 24, 2021 Last reply: 5 years ago 14 Replies
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Fred Bloggs
The record-obliterating heat wave will hit California, Oregon, and Washington amid a megadrought.
"The National Weather Service is warning of a “Record-Breaking and Dangerous Heatwave” hitting this weekend and early next week. Weather models are also coalescing around blistering heat. If the forecasts come to fruition, we’re not just talking about a few daily records falling here and there. We’re talking about a heat wave for the ages that could absolutely destroy all-time records from Washington to California as well as parts of Canada."
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jlarkin
Thanks for the Daily Doom Digest. I was getting entirely too perky lately.
The upside is that maybe I can walk to work without a sweater and a hat one day soon. It's 57F here now.
Gotta go, time for my long hot shower.
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Fred Bloggs
Newsom Misled the Public About Wildfire Prevention Efforts Ahead of Worst Fire Season on Record
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Their so-called treatment is a fire management practice, not a botanical cure. A lot California forest is regrowth from extensive clear cutting and old forest fires, a lot of this goes back 70 years or more. Contrary to popular belief, the forest doesn't just regrow, it goes through a series of what are called successions. Forest management just makes matters worse when they plant seedlings at high density. From what I've seen of the oak forest regrowth in northern Ca, the density of trees is way too high. It looks to be at least 200 trees/acre, when naturally occurring old growth oak *may* grow at a density of 50 trees/acre, ideally 30 trees/acre. These scrubby high density thicket forests they have now create too much competition for water and soil nutrients , making the trees weak and sick. And this why you have all these diseases killing the trees and creating all this tinder. There's nothing new about these diseases, they were always there, always in the environment. What's changed is the forest's resistance to them, sickly weak trees aren't resistant to anything. Forest management in California will soon become oxymoronic as every bit of it will burn or die quite soon.
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John Larkin
What's
No. There is an equilibrium point, which is where we were before a bunch of european types showed up with machines and put out fires.
We'll creep back to another equilibrium. "Every bit of it will burn or die quite soon" makes no sense at all. Good thing to be depressed to imagine, if that's what you need.
Catastrophe extrapolation is popular but makes no sense. Like The Population Bomb stupidity.
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Jeff Liebermann
Chicken Little perhaps?
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Perhaps you should inform the NWS/NOAA that their 7 day forecast is horribly wrong:
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Accuweather's long term forecast also fails to predict any broken record temperatures:
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Laterly, it's been cold enough in Santa Cruz county CA that I've been burning a little firewood at night.
If you want a reasonable weather guess, I suggest Pivotal Weather:
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Pick your favorite computah model:
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Looks like high 80's F on the left coast for the next 7 days.
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Fred Bloggs
NWS warning is based on convergence of European and GFS weather models, which are NEVER wrong this close to the event.
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whit3rd
Silly denialist: the equilibrium of long ago is for an entirely different temperature of the planet, and it's NOT long enough for trees and shrubs to have mutated to adapt. Heck, human practices haven't mutated enough in the last few decades, when we KNEW the warmup was coming.
Forests of old might never be able to return, and entirely new ecologies will come into existence; let's hope they're better than the Sahara that overtook parts of Africa due to human activity. Or, lets PLAN AND IMPLEMENT something better.
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Fred Bloggs
Problem is they replant the damaged areas with the wrong trees at too high density. They need to thin the existing forest, cutting down every 4 of 5 trees. Main problem there is the terrain. There exists some pretty humongous grinder technology they can put on a tracked vehicle, probably requiring 100HP per ton weight footprint, and that will be a lot of tons, grind the largest tree like it's a twig, and then use a massive blower to blow the debris and dust through tubes up to a mile to the collection point on the nearest road to truck that stuff somewhere away from the forest. The whole US will get free mulch for a year.
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Rick C
Perhaps you need to learn how to read English. "additional record breaking hot weather is forecast over the Pacific Northwest into the Sacramento Valley beginning this weekend". Is it common for Sacramento to have 103/104 degree heat?
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Why do people only look around the immediate area when there is talk about extreme conditions? Your back yard is not the world. I suppose you'd do the same check of your back yard if you lived in Alaska?
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Jeff Liebermann
Two wrongs make a right? I'll buy that if they tend to predict diametrically opposing predictions and where reality is somewhere in between. You're usually correct about improved accuracy closer to the predicted day. However, NWS failed badly last Thurs (June 17) when it predictive over 100F temperatures, and nothing happeneed.
Maybe a comparison of computah weather models would be useful:
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That's where I live, but you probably would prefer your own area. Click "Compare" at the bottom center of the page. That should produce a series of horizontal "ribbons" with 5 day predictions of wind, rain, and temperature for GFS, ECMWF, ICON, METOBLUE, and NAM models. None of them predict temperatures over about 85F for the weekend in the San Lorenzo Valley area. However, the predicted temperatures will probably be higher for inland locations. Note the comments on the right for the various models, where it mentions that since GFS is free, a majority of weather applications use it.
This GFS model is nice because you can go backwards 3 days:
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Looks like the YouTube influencers also predict very hot weather, but more to the north this time: "Record Breaking Heat Wave Forecast to Bring Triple Digit Temps to Washington, Oregon, and California"
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So, maybe you're right this time, and all you need is a little target practice. The West Coast is a big place.
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John Larkin
If we were dead as many times as we have been predicted to be dead, we'd all be dead.
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jlarkin
Why buy all that expensive machinery? Just let it burn.
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Bill Sloman
Forest fires tend to burn people's homes, and people. They aren't much fun, and the consequences are pretty nasty too.
City dwellers tend to be relaxed about this, until the outer suburbs star burning, and the inner city hospitals start filling up with people who react badly to inhaling wood smoke.
I didn't much like having my view over Sydney Harbour obscured by wood smoke. Happily it didn't re-activate my childhood asthma. Others weren't so lucky.
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whit3rd
Our planet supports seven or so billion opinions; why do you tally up all the fantasies of doom? Predictions of death prove right for us all, in time.
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Rick C
Now that the forecasts are proving true people don't have so much to say. This really is an extreme weather event.
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