The cellphone paradox - where are all the accidents?

This is perhaps the sixth possible answer to the enigma.

If I understand your argument, it's that the laws on cellphone use while driving have been 100% effective in preventing cellphone use while driving, and that these laws are so effective as to cancel out totally the skyrocketing accident rates predicted by the studies.

Reply to
ceg
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Why would they? With automatic braking, lane detection, backup cameras and the like other rates may be going down. You have to look at all the numbers. Don't forget MADD too.

Reply to
Ed Pawlowski

Do you have *better* data than what I provided in the OP?

I've been asking for better accident rate data since this thread started.

I'm not afraid of better data (you may be, but I am not).

You are missing a screw if you think that a second-order issue such as injuries and fatalities will be simpler than a first-order issue such as accidents (which are the cause of those injuries and fatalities).

Are you seriously arguing that the injuries and fatalities would have happened *without* the accident happening first?

The fact you used "lying" instead of "laying" tells me you are intelligent; so I find it hard to believe you actually believe that a second-order issue such as injuries and fatalities can possibly provide the answer to the conundrum when the first order issue itself doesn't provide that answer.

The paradox is so clear that the only ones 'clouded' by it are those with an agenda that isn't supported by the data.

It's very clear:

  1. Most of us (me included) believe that the skyrocketing ownership of cellphones in the USA must mean a concomitant skyrocketing *use* of those cellphones while driving; which itself, should indicate a concomitant increase of driving-while-distracted cases.
  2. Most of us (me included) have seen the scary studies which show that the use of a cellphone while driving is distracting, and, most of us (me included) conclude that driving while distracted should be increasing the accident rate in the USA.
  3. Yet, the best data shown here indicates that the accident rate in the USA is not going up (in fact, it's going down).

Most of us would say that this is a paradox. So far, six answers have been provided to satisfy that paradox.

You can't be serious if you want to use fatalities and injuries as your justification while wholly ignoring the accidents that

*caused* those fatalities and injuries.

Fatalities and injuries have ten times the factors that the accidents have - so - if accidents are too complex for you to handle details about to support your arguments - there is no way fatalities and injuries will support your argument.

The only person who would leap over accident rates to go to fatalities and injuries, is a person who has cherry picked some data which isn't supported by the accident rate, and wants to stick with that cherry-picked data come hell or high water, to support a bogus argument.

As I said many times, anyone with reliable accident rate data is welcome to post it - as this thread is about accident rates, pure and simple.

Reply to
ceg

If a skyrocketing number of cellphone owners were to lay their phones on the highway, as you did, would you expect the number of crushed cellphones lying on the roadway to suddenly skyrocket accordingly, concomitant with the huge numbers of cellphones now lying on the roadway?

Wouldn't the timing and number of the cellphone crush rate correspond to the number of cellphones laid onto the highway?

If they don't - that would be a paradox to be resolved as this one is.

Reply to
ceg

You may be right. It's entirely possible that the texting idiots with a coffee in the other hand merely scare the crap out of us cyclists and don't actually connect all that often, despite some spectacular lane drift episodes.

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Andrew Muzi 
   
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Reply to
AMuzi

Perhaps some of this information might be helpful.

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Reply to
SeaNymph

Per Don Y:

I ride a *lot* - but would never, ever recommend it to anybody else.

The core of my being able to feel reasonably not-in-danger is avoiding proximity with motor vehicles. But that leads one into behavior that is largely illegal, probably does not scale, and depends on an continuous series of decisions.

Yes but that may be the lesser of two evils:

--
Pete Cresswell
Reply to
(PeteCresswell)

I agree with pretty much all you wrote just before this. We simply don't have the data to sort out the truth. And as a result we have the paradox. It seems to me too things are true but this is just my opinion...

1) Cell phone use can be distracting and distractions can cause accidents. 2) The hysteria of cell phone use is unwarranted. Whatever level of distraction and accidents result is very little different, in the totality of actual distractions for all causes, then things were before cell phones. So more or less, for every cell phone caused accident there is on less CD changing caused accident. I'm sure it's not really a 1:1 ratio but it's close enough that the hysteria is unwarranted.

Beyond that though I think there is a real difference between "using a cell phone" as in placing or receiving a call and talking AND texting. Texting simply takes too much mental processing for too long a time to be safe. And I think some studies point to that difference. I used to inspect roads and trying to write down on paper, which was similar to texting, the info I was gathering as I drove down the road was just way too distracting to be safe. But dictating it into a small micro-recorder worked just fine and I could keep my eyes on the road and immediately react if anything popped up. I'd play it back at the office and make the notes.

Reply to
Ashton Crusher

The other issue is that for every alleged accident caused by someone "using a cell phone" there may have been 20 million similar "hazardous events that could have caused an accident" where the driver was using a cell phone and DIDN'T have an accident.

Reply to
Ashton Crusher

No doubt it is when you are new to the job. Then you learn how to do it safely, or at least as safe as it can be done. I posted at length about this somewhere in this thread.

Reply to
Ashton Crusher

Drunk driving did not go down at a rate of 50% per year at the same time that Cell phone use was going up for 50% a year.

Reply to
Ashton Crusher

The problem I see is that the conclusion is absurd. The CLAIM that the accidents were caused by the cell phones is mostly likely just happenstance. A cell phone was in use THEREFORE the cell phone MUST have caused the accident. Well, the brakes were in use too, should we say the brakes caused the accident? Ditto for the headlights for nighttime accidents. You know every cop is itching to check the box or write the comment that "cell phone contributed" because cell phones are today's demon. It's like how when someone has a single car accident and they can't come up with a reason they check the box for "speed related" because... Hey, he must have been going to fast! He had an accident!!.

Reply to
Ashton Crusher

What would I use it for? I rately want to talk to people on the phone, I'd much rather send email -- which I do from my computer because typing on a real keyboard is just SOOOO much easier than bumbling along on the phone's 'keyboard'. There's a cd player in the car, on which I listen to the radio or audiobooks on trips of half an hour or more -- I've been working on a Tom Clancy for a couple of years now; you don't have to remember the plot, you can just pick it up whenever it's handy :-) It's easier to use the Garmin GPS, especially since reading small print is a real bitch and I mostly know where I want to go anyway.

So what DO you use yours for? Do you have that many people you want to talk to? Scary...

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Cheers, Bev 
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Reply to
The Real Bev

Lots of good reading there, so thanks for the links. It will take me a while to go through it, but for others, here's the list of "stuff" that is on that page.

I'm first going to look for effects on "accident rates" in the USA, which is the key focus of this thread.

  1. Meta-Analyses & Literature Reviews These papers compile the findings of many studies, which is convenient to get an overview of the issue:

Is a hands-free phone safer than a handheld phone? Ishigami & Klein. (2009). Journal of Safety Research. 40; 157?164.

Analysis of the Literature: The Use of Mobile Phones While Driving Brace, Young & Regan. (2007). Monash University Research Centre.

Cell phones and driving: review of research McCartt, Hellinga, Braitman. (2006). Traffic Injury Prevention. 7; 89-106.

A meta-analysis of driving performance and crash risk associated with the use of cellular telephones while driving Caird, et al. (2005). Department of Psychology University of Calgary, Honeywell, Human Factors North. PROCEEDINGS of the Third International Driving Symposium on Human Factors in Driver Assessment, Training and Vehicle Design. 478-485.

The Impact of Cell Phone Conversations on Driving, A Meta-Analytic Approach Horrey & Wickens. (2004). Technical Report. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Effects of Cellular Telephones on Driving Behaviour and Crash Risk: Results of Meta Analysis Caird, et al. (2004). CAA Foundation for Traffic Safety.

  1. Crash Risk & Crash Data Young Drivers Report the Highest Level of Phone Involvement in Crash or Near-Crash Incidences National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2012). Traffic Safety Facts Research Note.
2010 Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2011). Traffic Safety Facts Research Note. NOTE: Beginning with 2010 data, NHTSA is using a new measure of distracted driving crashes. The new definiti?on is more narrow, intended to focus on distractions most likely to affect crash involvement. Thus 2010 distraction numbers cannot be compared to previous years.

Distracted Driving 2009 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2010). Traffic Safety Facts Research Note.

Trends in Fatalities From Distracted Driving in the United States, 1999 to 2008 Wilson. (2010). American Journal of Public Health. 100(11):2213-2219.

Role of mobile phones in motor vehicle crashes resulting in hospital attendance: a case-crossover study McEvoy, et al. (2005). BMJ. 331(7514):428

The role of driver distraction in traffic crashes Stutts, et al. (2001). AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety

Cellular Phone Use While Driving: Risks and Benefits Lissy, et al. (2000). Harvard Center for Risk Analysis. Phase 1 Report.

Crashes Induced by Driver Information Systems and What Can Be Done to Reduce Them Green. (2000). University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute.

Association between cellular telephone calls and motor vehicle collisions Redelmeier & Tibshirani. (1997). New England Journal of Medicine, 336; 453-458. ?

  1. Hands-Free Devices This NSC white paper includes an extensive bibliography of research studies about cognitive distraction and hands-free phone conversation while driving:

?Understanding the distracted brain: Why driving while using hands-free phones is risky behavior White paper. (2010). National Safety Council.

  1. Cognitive Distraction Research This NSC white paper includes an extensive bibliography of research studies about cognitive distraction and phone conversation while driving:

Understanding the distracted brain: Why driving while using hands-free phones is risky behavior White paper. (2010). National Safety Council.

Measuring Cognitive Distraction in the Automobile. AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety. June 2013.

  1. Text Messaging and Voice-Activated Texting Research listed here about manual texting and speech-to-text systems:

?New research reveals that voice-activated in-car technologies dangerously undermine driver attention. AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety. 2013.

Voice-to-Text Driver Distraction Study. New research findings suggest that voice-to-text applications offer no real safety advantage over manual texting. Texas A&M Transportation Institute. 2013.

The Effect of Text Messaging on Driver Behavior: A Simulator Study Reed & Robbins. (2008). Published Project Report PPR 367. Transport Research Laboratory.

The effects of text messaging on young novice driver performance Hosking, Young & Regan. (2006). Report No. 246. Monash University Accident Research Centre.

  1. Cell Phones Compared to Alcohol Impaired Driving This study examined cell phone use while driving as well as alcohol-impaired driving:

?Fatal Distraction? A Comparison of the Cell Phone Driver and the Drunk Driver Strayer, Drews, Crouch. (2006). Human Factors. 48(2);381-391.

  1. Driver Cell Phone Use Rates These studies estimate how many drivers are using cell phones, through direct observation of drivers in traffic, self-report surveys or other methods:

?Driver Electronic Device Use in 2012 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2014). Traffic Safety Facts Research Note.

Driver Electronic Device Use in 2011 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2013). Traffic Safety Facts Research Note.

Driver Electronic Device Use in 2010 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2011). Traffic Safety Facts Research Note.

  1. Evaluations of Laws & Enforcement These studies examine the effectiveness of laws and enforcement:

High-Visibility Enforcement Demonstration Programs in Connecticut and New York Reduce Hand-Held Phone Use National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2010). Traffic Safety Facts Research Note.

Phoning While Driving Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. (2010). Status Report.

Longer-term effects of Washington, DC, law on drivers hand-held cell phone use McCartt & Hellinga. (2007). Traffic Injury Prevention. 8(2):199-204.

Effects of Washington, D.C. law on drivers hand-held cell phone use McCartt, Hellinga, Geary. (2006). Traffic Injury Prevention. 7(1):1-5.

Longer term effects of New York State's law on drivers handheld cell phone use McCartt & Geary. (2004). Injury Prevention. 10(1):11-5.

Drivers use of handheld cell phones before and after New York State's cell phone law McCartt, Braver, Geary. (2003). Prevention Medicine. 36(5):629-35. ?

  1. Teens & Young Drivers Studies that focused on teens, novice drivers and young adults:

Young Drivers Report the Highest Level of Phone Involvement in Crash or Near-Crash Incidences National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2012). Traffic Safety Facts Research Note.

Distracted Driving Among Newly Licensed Teen Drivers AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety. (2012).

Teens and Distracted Driving: Texting, talking and other uses of the cell phone behind the wheel Madden & Lenhart. (2009). Pew Internet & American Life Project.

  1. Public Opinion Surveys ?Surveys have measured public support for hands-free, handheld and texting bans. Surveys also offer insight into driver attitudes, beliefs and behaviors:
2013 Traffic Safety Culture Index AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, 2013.

National Distracted Driving Telephone Survey Finds Most Drivers Answer the Call, Hold the Phone, and Continue to Drive National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2011). Traffic Tech.

National Phone Survey on Distracted Driving Attitudes and Behaviors Tison, Chaudhary & Cosgrove. (2011). National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. More research reports and analysis on distracted driving, cell phones & car crashes:

National Phone Survey on Distracted Driving Attitudes and Behaviors Tison, Chaudhary & ; Cosgrove. (2011). National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

National Distracted Driving Telephone Survey Finds Most Drivers Answer the Call, Hold the Phone, and Continue to Drive National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2011). Traffic Tech.

Distracted Driving and Driver, Roadway and Environmental Factors Singh. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2010). Technical Report. DOT HS 811 380.

Cell Phones and Driving: Research Update AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety. (2008).

The Impact of Driver Inattention on Near-Crash/Crash Risk: An Analysis Using the 100-Car Naturalistic Driving Study Data Klauer, et al. (2006). National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Technical Report. DOT HS 810 594.

Effects of Simulator Practice and Real-World Experience on Cell-Phone?Related Driver Distraction Cooper & Strayer. (2008). Human Factors. 50(6): 893?902.

Mobile telephone simulator study Kircher, et al. (2004). Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute.

NHTSA Status Summary: Using Wireless Communication Devices While Driving National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2003). Obtained via Freedom of Information Act and published by the New York Times.

Distractions in Everyday Driving Stutts, et al. (2003). University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Highway Safety Research Center, AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety.

The Use of Mobile Phones in Road Traffic, SNRA inquiry into the use of mobile phones and other IT systems while driving Patten, et al. (2003). Swedish National Road Administration.

Predicting the effects of in-car interface use on driver performance: an integrated model approach Salvucci. (2001). International Journal of Human-Computer Studies. 55, 85:107.

Cell Phone Use Monteressi. ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences Inc.

Reply to
ceg

In keeping with Occam's Razer (otherwise known as KISS); this is the simplest of the six solutions proposed to date that satisfy the solution to the paradox.

That simples solution to the paradox is simply that the accident rate is wholly unaffected by cellphone usage.

But everyone wants a more complicated solution, such as the whacko who proposes (seriously, I think) that the minor errors in the accident statistics exactly cancel out the stupifyingly huge cellphone ownership numbers, or the proponents who seriously suggested that drunk driving enforcement exactly cancelled out the same, for the exact same result.

These solutions, while possible, are so highly improbably compared to the Occam's Razer solution, that four or five of the six solutions proposed can pretty much be considered frivolous right off the bat.

Reply to
ceg

Where I go hiking, I almost never run into people, period.

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But, as Jeff knows, I live in the Santa Cruz mountains, where there are plenty of off trail ways to get around, since the loggers bulldozed trails all over the hills a hundred years ago (which I specialize in following).

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Most of these logging roads washed out in the ravines about fifty years ago, and the cliff hangers all fell into the valleys - but they're still navigable on foot.

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So, a lot has to do with *where* you're hiking, since I think I never once ran into anyone on the trail, in the past five years of weekly hikes in the hills (we use rope to get across the ravines, so these aren't hikes for little old ladies).

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Here are some pictures of an easy cross just last week for example.

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PS: The black splotches on the gloves and clothes is poison oak, which is called "urushiol", which basically means black lacquer in Japanese origins. If you don't have black splotches all over your clothes, then you haven't been in poison oak or ivy.

Reply to
ceg

And did you note that they did NOT talk about rates. The amount of miles people drive varies from year to year. It's very likely that the miles driven went up because

1) employment and the economy improved slightly 2) the price of gas dropped quite a bit.

As a result of miles driven going up, and all other things remaining the same such as how safely people drive, the NUMBER of accidents WILL go up, even thought in actuality, nothing has changed in the safety sphere.

I've see that same ploy by the safety Nazi's time after time. Whenever they need a headline they discover that the total number of accidents/fatalities/spilled hot coffee has increased while completely ignoring the actual RATEs, which are the ONLY way to even begin to make meaningful comparisons on these questions.

Whatever will get them the headlines is what the put in their press release whether it's meaningful or not.

Reply to
Ashton Crusher

The drive to work is dead time. There's nothing *else* you can do. You can't read the paper, for instance. And catching up on the news only takes a few minutes of talk radio. The traffic is better on the cellphone anyway, than from the radio. And, your navigation needs aren't all that great on a commute.

So, what you do is "conduct business".

Many people conduct business on the phone. So, that's what "I" do.

I almost never use the phone's keyboard to type anything, since Android has a decent speech-to-text translator. I wish I could get Android to

*default* to speech-to-text, because I find that I have to hit a tiny microphone at the bottom of the keyboard in order to put it into speech-to-text mode.

I don't like audio books, but I can see that it's useful for whiling away the time while commuting.

I use the phone for business use. There are LOTS of people I need to talk to because I am a program manager. I don't actually do anything; the people I talk to do all the work. I just nag them to death on the phone. :)

Reply to
ceg

:)

Reply to
ceg

I agree that the accident RATE is what's important. Not number of accidents, nor injuries or fatalities.

The first order problem is simply the accident rate. Any good data that focuses objectively on the accident RATE is good data.

Reply to
ceg

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