What happens if the economy opens up and the death toll does not spike? (2023 Update)

On Wednesday, May 20, 2020 at 3:05:19 AM UTC+10, snipped-for-privacy@columbus.rr.com wro te:

ause of this virus.

It told you that you might if you didn't do something sensible to slow down the spread of the infection. US deaths are now at 93,533, after 0.5% of th e population has been infected. If the other 99.5% of the population eventu ally gets infected it would presumably kill another 1.78 million US citizen s.

The US did slow down the epidemic so that the number infected is going up a t a steady, more or less constant rate but it is possible that it will keep on doing that until there's vaccine that stops people getting infected or an antiviral that stop the virus from reproducing in human cells.

ate in a lab.

What science actually said was that there wasn't any evidence that it had, which isn't quite the same thing. There is a a whole lot more virus spread out in lots of different wild animals than there is in the tiny population s being studied in labs, so the crucial mutations that let Covid-19 infect humans are more likely to have evolved in the wild.

Clinical trials suggest that it doesn't do much - not enough to justify ris king the side-effects.

ssary.

Nobody has said that they aren't helpful. When there weren't enough to go a round it made sense to save them for use in the places where they did the m ost good - where there were a lot of virus particles around for them to blo ck.

It did happen in a few places, for a while.

ty down until there is a vaccine.

What science actually says is that vigorous contact tracing can slow down t he infection rate enough that the epidemic actually go away. Lock down make s contact tracing easier, and makes it more likely that the potentially inf ected people who are told to self-isolate for 14 days from the potenially i nfections contact will actually do it.

Lock down - on its own - is just a dramatic political gesture that lets the politicians look as if they are doing something about the epidemic. South Korea never bothered. Trump doesn't seem to have bothered even trying to do anything that might have been effective enough to work.

are really really hoping that the death rate spikes up very quickly to make sure that all us idiots keep listening to science.

Nobody on the let is all that confident that idiots like you will ever list en hard enough to understand what science is actually saying, as opposed to what you like to think that it is saying.

Covid-19 isn't all that selective about the people it kills so it doesn't s electively kill off the ignorant idiots - more their elderly neighbours.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman
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Actually they did - in China - after they finally recognised what they were dealing with. By that time a lot of foreign visistors to Wuhan had got infected and flown home

Not - as far as we can see - deliberately.

There's very little of it around in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia and a bunch of other places who got the message about lock down and contact tracing.

You don't lock down the entire world. You lock down the chunks you can isolate.

If you do it right, you can effectively kill the epidemic with in that area in six weeks. The US, the UK and Sweden have chosen not to do it right - more out of ignorance and incompetence than anything else.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

t

Cursitor Doom doesn't seem to know that China can barely feed it's own popu lation, and depends on imports for a lot of it's food and other vital raw m aterials. Australia ships it lot of iron ore.

Total economic collapse in the rest of the world wouldn't leave China in gr eat shape either. And the version of Communism practiced in China is quite a lot different from the central control of the economy practiced the USSR which worked badly enough that the population eventually lost patience with the Party.

They may have enough sense to work out that real democratic socialism may w ork better, and let the voters chose between different communist party fact ions with different ideas about the way the country might be run.

ver 100 million people in the 20th century alone.

Cursitor Doom forgets that even the Communist Party recognises that those p articular doctrines didn't have the desired effect, and are dedicated to no t making the same mistakes again.

This doesn't mean that they are susceptible to making different kinds of mi stakes. Trump in the US has made the mistake of ignoring the Covid-19 epide mic - or at least not taking it seriously enough to get the new case per da y numbers to start decreasing by a significant amount every day so that the y can get close to zero within six weeks, which is possible.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

No, questions are specifications for construction of answers. You've never accepted any answers to a large category of such questions, which leads to my question: why do you make lame excuses for disbelief? I've answered it: to protect a pet theory.

Nonsense. The 'it' was loose on the world while they detected, characterized, and eventually recognized it as a new disease.

This seems to be the Trump blame-China theory, which might explain why you've mischaracterized the timing of events in the emergent months of COVID-19.

What's the sigificance of "N incubation periods"? Do you need to produce N clutches of chicks from a single brood hen?

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whit3rd

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