The world is nowhere near the end of the pandemic, says famed epidemiologist Larry Brilliant (2023 Update)

This is nonsense. The vaccines in use in the USA use the highly conserved Covid-19 spike protein as the antigen to provoke the immune system. A real infection offers a wider range of possible antigens, and - as Martin Brown has pointed out - the antibodies produced in reaction to a real infection tend to target bigger chunks of the viral casing (which are going to change more from strain to strain).

The delta strain seems to have originated in India, where very few people have been vaccinated (and even fewer when it first appeared).

John Larkin posts a lot of nonsense, but this is even more nonsensical than usual.

That is similar to the sort of poor Delta numbers now seen in Israel also uniquely Pfizer vaccinated in the entire population. Conjecture is that the vaccine efficacy there is waning in those vaccinated early on.

Hence the campaign for an Autumnal booster for those most vulnerable.

This article discusses some of the empirical evidence in the UK as to just how easily vaccine breakthrough is occurring with Delta.

No. Random errors created Delta in an area of India teeming with people who got infected in an explosive exponential wave. Then selected for the ones that could infect the handful of rich individuals over there who have been vaccinated. Almost the perfect way to generate escape strains.

Couple that with international travel to and from the UK which spread it to us because The Boris wanted his photo op jolly to Delhi and you have a recipe for disaster. UK might just have got away with it now due to a combination of summer weather, 90% first jab and 76% second jab (and a mixture of AZ, Pfizer and Moderna deployed) across the population.

The virus is global. Just because it flourished in India doesn't mean it originated there.

Vaccinating a population against virus A means that A dies out but mutation A' is differentially selected. A vaccine that focuses on a single viral feature is certainly easier for a mutation to evade, compared to a broader vaccine or a real infection.

A mutation anywhere in the world will soon spread. It will explode when it reaches a high-density, unvaccinated population like India. Even a 42% effective vaccine is better than none.

The doubling rate of delta is crazy, a few days. One seed will sweep a country fast. And, apparently, burn out fast. India daily cases are now below 10% of their May 8 peak. So are daily deaths.

The delta variant "was first detected in India in late 2020". If you think it might have orginated anywhere else you are welcome to tell us why you think that.

Unless that feature is highly conserved, and the Covid-19 spike protein is.

If the country is silly enough to let it. In Australia the delta outbreak in NSW is still growing - the 7 day moving average is at 327 new cases today, up from 163 cases on the 27th July - a doubling time of a fortnight. Other states have outbreaks, but they aren't as big and do seem to be coming under control.

Nothing to do with the virus, and everything to do with enough people getting sick and dying to frighten the rest into locking down hard.

The problem in NSW is that the delta virus is infectious enough that a few irresponsible idiots can infect a lot of people before they get sick enough for anybody to notice, and the anxiety level isn't yet high enough to frighten enough of the irresponsible idiots.

If you tell us what exactly is delta, then we can tell you where it was originated. D614G was discovered in June 2020, 4 to 6 months before delta in India. E484Q became significant two months ago, and D614G + E484Q are in 56% of our cases in USA. So, we ain't got no delta. USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O

2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0% 2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0% 2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0% 2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0% 2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0% 2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0% 2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0% 2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0% 2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0% 2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0% 2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0% 2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0% 2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0% 2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5% 2021/08__(10715)_|__16%__20%__16%__59%__17%___2%__76%__16%_|__0%__3%_15%_56%_15%__2%__8% _________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other

Your dataset doesn't (apparently) allow for uniquely identifying particular named variants as it appears to only enumerate specific mutations.

Delta (B.1.617.2) has several mutations, including D614G, T478K, L452R and P681R.

Why don't you play with your data until you get results that agree with the data published by the CDC. Otherwise, it's just poorly formatted text with little/no real pertinent information content.

which is exactly 0%.

if only i can figure out how they come up with their number.

The sequence substitutions designated Delta aka B.1.617.2

Lists the swaps and lineages for Delta as

Defining SNPs S:T19R S:L452R S:T478K S:P681R S:D950N ORF3a:S26L M:I82T ORF7a:V82A ORF7a:T120I N:D63G N:R203M N:D377Y

Arose in India and then radiated from there. USA got some cases detected quite early on if their data are to be believed.

Looks to me from the above table like your local Delta has _417N & _484Q in addition and it really took off from the start of this year.

Our delta is 417N + 452R + 478K + 614T + 681R, without 484Q. 614T (not sure what the real letter should be) is also different from the WuHan virus and the D614G in early strain of 2020. Delta was as high as 66% in May, but dropping off since then.

Probably. We should have left well enough alone and let the virus rage. Then we would have seen no mutations at all. Delta would have never existed and I would never have had to read such an idiotic post.

I literally have no idea how anyone can have respect for someone who posts such idiotic drivel.

On Thursday, August 12, 2021 at 10:51:45 AM UTC-4, snipped-for-privacy@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote: Nothing of consequence.

I had a realization while reading through these posts. In various conversations over the years with people who believe God created man they often argue against evolution using the watch analogy. It is very unlikely indeed to improve the functionality of a watch by poking at it with a screwdriver.

However, the human body is not a precision watch with every part doing a specific job in an optimum fashion. The human body is more like a machine created by a bunch of workers who know nothing about mechanics, only able to turn a screw and tighten a bolt. They pick parts from a random assortment of cogs, levers, pulleys and fasteners trying to build the same machine they built previously. They sometimes make mistakes and the best units are sent back to have copies made. In that case there is much room for improvement even in the best working units produced. So random changes by an idiot can indeed improve the species. Look at the proof, even Larkin has produced viable children.