I knew a guy who worked for the Pritzger family. He was one of three people on their private residence IT staff.
When the kids took a picture, a staff member was assigned to unload the phone or camera and organize all the pics for them.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
It was you who wrote in your previous post "Face masks don't stop virus particles." I was just pointing out that was not correct.
It is most certainly not irrelevant. The mucus droplets will evaporate and eventually dry virus particles will be released.Being small, they will remain in the air rather than settle quickly. More info at and at where Fig C2 shows how quickly small droplets evaporate.
What they are designed for and what they will block in practice are not the same thing. In any case, filters can, somewhat counter-intuitively, take out particles much less than designed for. See "Classic collection efficiency curve" figure about halfway down the page at
See the ref stated above Some bacteria form spores, but they are a whole lot more complicated than viruses.
What has that got to do with viruses?
-- Jeff
ote:
of mucus that include virus particles, this is all entirely irrelevant.
What I actually wrote was "Face masks don't stop virus particles. They capt ure water droplets. Infected people exhale water droplets that do carry vir us particles, and can infect other people who happen to inhale them. "
There seems to have a been a little text-chopping - or at least carelesss t r****ng - since then.
It could be argued that what I should have written was " Face masks aren't designed to stop virus particles. They are designed to capture water drople ts. Infected people exhale water droplets that do carry virus particles, an d can infect other people who happen to inhale them." Since I get jeered at for being pedantic whenever I get that careful, I didn't.
The water might evaporate - or most of it - but the heavier molecules that distinguish mucus from pure water don't, and they lower the vapour pressure of the water remaining in droplet, so the last of it evaporates very slowl y - if at all. What you end up with is a somewhat dehydrated snot particle with a virus or two in it. Still relatively easy for a mask to capture.
They may remain in the air somewhere, but air circulates and the droplets ( and any hypothetical particles) get widely dispersed
It mentions " the solute effect (Raoult?s effect) due to the prese nce of salt/electrolytes in saliva." but seems to ignore it when doing the modelling.
actually it is more of a discussion of how quickly they might evaporate, fr om the point of view that any droplet is dangerous.
lot bigger that virus particles being carried by droplets.
Which mentions that the test particles being collected are "sodium chloride particles" and dioctyl phthalate (DOP) oil particles.
Not relevant to collecting droplets of mucus, which are rather stickier.
un getting them out of the aqueous environment they are used to.
an viruses.
Nothing. Which was the point. It's not easy to get single virus particles, and you might have been thinking of anthrax spores, which have been known to be circulated by post in regular envelopes by malicious people.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
ote:
n interesting little paper
t showing symptoms of Covid-19 are responsible for most of the spread of th e disease, and emphasises the well-known fact that rapid contact tracing an d isolation of the potentially infected are crucial to preventing epidemic spread.
ary interest is in getting everybody back to work seem reluctant to take it on board.
te about
but
ence draws a conclusion which is the exact opposite of what the bogus artic le claims it says.
the expected protection level against small virions. Some surgical masks ma y let a significant fraction of airborne viruses penetrate through their fi lters, providing very low protection against aerosolized infectious agents in the size range of 10 to 80 nm. It should be noted that the surgical mask s are primarily designed to protect the environment from the wearer, wherea s the respirators are supposed to protect the wearer from the environment.
n
f
o
n
mucus that include virus particles, this is all entirely irrelevant.
t bigger that virus particles being carried by droplets.
getting them out of the aqueous environment they are used to.
viruses.
Not only do masks effectively stop the droplets containing the virus, the s maller particles of virus below around 50 nm are not likely to be viable vi ruses, but rather particles which may result in a immune response of some t ype, but can not cause an infection. An infection is not at all likely to result from viral "particles" as opposed to intact viruses.
Even if intact viruses are somehow separated from the surrounding water dro plet, they will quickly degrade. Like many substances in an aqueous enviro nment, viruses interact with the water and are more likely to degrade witho ut it. Larkin continues to hypothesize that viruses diminish in moist envi rons, but I'm willing to bet it is the opposite and they are benefited by h igh humidity and suffer from low humidities.
This virus can be disassembled by hydrogen bonding to surfaces. But when i n a water droplet it is surrounded by benign water molecules that actually help to hold the virus together. Evaporate the water and surfaces can atta ch to molecules in the viral coat resulting in it being pulled apart.
Masks are a significant help by stopping the vast majority of viruses from being breathed or exhaled. Combine that will distance, reduced numbers and hand washing and we can actually get rid of this virus. Do these measures half way and the infection rate increases.
It's that simple, many states in the US are providing a very accurate demon stration of this presently.
Thank you DeSantis for the microbiology lesson.
-- Rick C. + Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging + Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
It is true about our immune system in general. If it were not the case we would be forever succumbing to some random environmental pathogen in the same way that Aids victims used to before there was a treatment to prevent the immune system from being rendered inactive.
The R number 3-5 is a pretty good indicator of infectivity of the virus and so by implication the viral load that it takes to get infected.
It wouldn't be ethical to do the sort of challenge test needed to establish infectiousness more accurately for Covid. But it is in the range 3-5 or about a factor of 5 lower than measles and a factor of 2 more than ebola. Indeed one of the world's top experts in ebola virus (and other nasty viral diseases) has caught Covid-19.
One thing that is noticeable from the latest data is that the increased handwashing and sanitising has almost wiped out influenza deaths this year as a beneficial side effect. UK death rates are now *below* the long term seasonal average for the time of year which you can interpret at least two ways and both may contain an element of truth:
Covid-19 has mostly killed people who were going to die soon anyway. Lockdown and hygiene measures have prevented other means of death (this includes a marked decrease in young male drivers in car crashes)
More than enough young lives saved on the roads to make up for the very few Covid deaths in healthy young people caused by the virus.
One problem for the authorities in Europe is that the younger generation are beginning to realise that they are not at a significant risk and are breaking social distancing on the beaches. Infection rates are rising quite quickly but so far hospital admissions and deaths remain stuck at a baseline level of a couple of 2ppm that just won't go away.
Governments mostly consist of unfit overweight elderly men so you can see that they have a vested interest in this game that does not necessarily align with the rest of the population. Particularly the young whose future careers have been blighted by the economic crash.
-- Regards, Martin Brown
Got any numbers to back up that cloth muzzles have any value compared to proper masks for the job? I'm sure you've seen the photo of a man doing some sort of arc welding with pieces of newspaper over his face as a mask. Sure, it probably stops some UV and splatter.
The lies and lack of corrections sounds like the government. John Larkin seems like he's not wrong about stuff over half the time.
We have a few things going on here. Infinite clean drinking water if you're near Chicago. No raging fires or droughts, and no earthquakes. We have technology, manufacturing, finance and superb agriculture. It's a well rounded sort of place in areas the government hasn't yet broken.
om
Nothing handy. But since you breath through them, they are going to trap so me of the virus loaded dropelts floating around.
.What's that got to do with anything? Arc weldnig produces toxic fume, not v irus-loaded drplets of saliva.
Droplets of saliva carrying occasional Covid-19 virons hasn't got much in c ommon with UV photons, ozone, oxides of nitrogen and condensed metal vapour .
You seem to work on the principle that anything that goes between your face and something dangerous is doing the same job.
t
The US government isn't doing well, but if you ignore Donald Trump most of what they do say is more or less correct.
He's more reliable on electronics than on practically anything else. Trusti ng when he's wrong even half the time is exactly wise.
Sure. My father's employers licensed the Zimmerman process - used in Chicag o to oxidises human waste water and carbon doxide - to oxidise the "black liquor" from caustic soda cooking of wood chips into paper pulp. If you rec ycle your drinking water repeatedly, you do have infinite supplies of it.
You haven't had any droughts recently. Climate change can deliver that. The same climate change can make you much more vulnerable to forest fires. Aus tralia is a largely earthquake free area. We sit on a nice old continental plate, which may be drifting north at 7 cm per year, but seems to be shif ting in one piece. You need to sit close to a subduction zone - like all th e countries around the Pacific ring of fire
to see more action.
aDream on.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
A doctor or nurse can be a disease vector 1000x as much as you. They are in close contact with infected people, and with patients who are especially likely to ge killed by this virus. You aren't.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
Only a mentally defective would believe such total horse manure. Only a so ciopath would spread the idea. My 94 year old friend is not going to die a nytime soon. Although the statistical life expectancy for someone his age is only another three years. However, that is a statistical matter average d over a large population and does not take into account that he is strong and healthy with no medical issues other than his blindness. So the realit y is he is actually likely to make it another six years if he avoids this p lague.
But then a sociopath would not consider another six years of someone else's life to be important.
Yes, the economic "crash" that could have been avoided by addressing this d eadly pandemic as if it were a deadly pandemic. Or we can focus on everyth ing other than dealing with the disease and the US becoming the world's par iah.
That's the ironic part of all this. People who think we need to sequester "the vulnerable" and let the disease rage, ignore the fact that this is pot entially the worst possible method of dealing with the disease causing lots of deaths as well as economic damage. We have no reason to believe we wil l develop lasting immunity from being infected, so the disease would rage a s long as we fail to deal with it.
-- Rick C. -- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging -- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Specifically, the disease kills maybe 20 per thousand who get it; one year's mortality for a human (lifespan circa 72 years) is less than that, so the disease must be killing substantial numbers of folk who weren't going to die this year.
IMO, focusing on deaths is the wrong way to go.
Instead, you have to look at the cost -- to families, livelihoods -- of an illness which did NOT claim a life (as there appear to be far more examples of this than deaths).
I know of three folks still recovering from Covid19. In addition to their hospitalizations, they've also had to endure lengthy physical rehab programs to regain even basic functions. Even if the financial cost (to them) was negligible (isn't the government covering all or some of this?), they will individually bear the long-term consequences of their illness. How likely are their employers to keep their jobs waiting for them 2 or more months later? What psychological consequences will they bear over the balance of their lives?
How big a hit to the economy (if you value the economy over life) will this be as folks start avoiding "outings" (shopping, vacations, travel, etc.) to avoid even a RECOVERABLE illness?
Folks are tired of the "sacrifices" (ha!) they've had to make. Politicians are tiring of the costs. How much support will folks who get ill NEXT year find -- for their wages, eviction protection, job security, etc. -- when everyone has come to accept this as The New Norm?
My colleagues and I are seeing increasing calls for our services from clients. And, at the same time, distressing calls from the employees AT those client shops who are now suddenly unemployed. Folks who now have pretty bleak job prospects -- who will undoubtedly limit their purchases (propagating the problem to still others).
It's tough talking to a guy who lost his job while you may have benefited from the situation (and, may even be PERFORMING his job in this New Normal).
ho
As a comparison, instead of 1,000 people a day dying in the US from this di sease, what if it were one airliner crash every day? Would people stop fly ing for a couple of months and then start up again only to find the acciden ts quickly resurge to killing 300 people a day, but say this is how it must be because we can't continue to not fly? Besides, those people all knew t he risks and might well have died in car crashes which everyone knows are m ore dangerous than planes.
This country seems to have lost the ability to think. There is a lot of "c ommon sense" running around, but without the knowledge of how diseases spre ad and the opinion that this is no worse than the flu, "common sense" lead s us to totally wrong conclusions.
I guess we should try reporting the deaths and hospitalizations in the news . Maybe then people will learn about the disease and start behaving like i t is dangerous.
20% of the world's COVID-19 deaths and 25% of the infections, right here in River City!-- Rick C. -+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging -+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
People can avoid flying -- how often are YOU in an airport?
People hear that driving is dangerous/lethal -- yet know that they are on the roads every day and "still living".
I.e., these behaviors don't manifest the actual risk in terms to which folks can relate.
[A neighbor was cognizant of the risks of diabetes and his likelihood of developing it. But, "it won't apply to me" -- until it did. He similarly was aware of the heart-attack risk assigned to his obesity and lack of exercise. But, again, "it won't apply to me"... until it did. Repeat for his stroke risk and cancer risk. How many times do you have to be proven wrong before you start taking the (medical) science seriously??]I don't know anyone in my neighborhood who is sick from this. So, none of my neighbors see it as particularly threatening (as evidenced by the proximity with which they interact, the "guests" they entertain at/in their homes, etc.).
[Though a neighbor just died of a sudden/massive stroke -- but, no word as to whether it was covid-precipitated as he was asymptomatic, otherwise]OTOH, I know several people (NOT in the neighborhood) fighting infections so the intellectual concept of "pandemic" has a direct tie-in to my
*emotional* relationship to the issue. Maybe more people need to be sick so folks hear REAL experiences (instead of those that the media opt to portray).We're expecting ~7K deaths this year from Covid19 -- in a state of ~7M. That's higher than the CFR for influenza. So, higher than the IFR for the flu. And, even higher still when you consider it applies to the population as a whole -- even folks known NOT to be infected (and, thus, not representable in an IFR estimate)
I suspect that starts to bring the experience a lot closer to people as they -- or someone that they know -- can comment about knowing of a Covid-related death.
I recall the campaign to reduce teen smoking when I was a kid. All the speeches, demos in school ("this is a REAL healthy lung. this is the lung of a smoker..."). Do I know anyone who changed their behavior wrt smoking as a result of this?
"It won't (can't?) happen to me."
Teenage pregnancy?
AIDS?
Gonna be a lot of Darwin Award contenders, this year!
It is backed up by the *FACTS*. Taking a single sentence completely out of context to try and make me look bad is the act of a scoundrel.
Here is the evidence from UK ONS. 91% of those that died had serious underlying health conditions before they succumbed to Covid-19.
That is an even higher proportion than I had remembered.
It has also emerged recently that in the UK having tested positive for Covid at some stage and fully recovered means that they still count as a Covid related death if they are run over by a bus several months later.
The odd individual might well be fit and healthy but the overall picture is that age and fitness is very strongly correlated with outcome.
They might well survive then if they are as fit as you seem to think. An
80+ year old relative of someone in the village has had it and recovered OK despite not really being expected to do so.You keep on shouting "STOP THE WORLD I WANT TO GET OFF". We are stuck with this thing now. Pandora's box was opened and the disease is in wide circulation globally. We can only really hope to manage the transmission rate now and wait for an effective vaccine. Even Australia where for a moment they looked like they had it under control has lost it again.
Trump's hopeless mismanagement of the pandemic it will ultimately only kill at most about 1% of the US population worst case. It may well maim another 2% or so with permanent disabilities which is very unfortunate. I hope we do get an effective vaccine by early 2021.
If you elect a dodgy game show host for President what do you expect?
The statistics say that it will cause fewer additional deaths than have already occurred in the UK. Leaks over the weekend that have been denied by the government suggest that they are belatedly listening to the scientists and considering a lockdown for the over 50's as a way of reopening schools. It is that or shut down pubs and restaurants again.
The top scientists have already stated that we are close to the limit for additional freedoms that can be allowed without risking a big spike in infections. Increasingly it looks like the young are no longer going to do what their elders tell them so we will have to live with it.
-- Regards, Martin Brown
Which says NOTHING about when they are going to die.
Irrelevant.
Which is totally different from what you said previously.
Anecdotal and I didn't make any claims about anyone's fitness other than a friend of mine.
No one is shouting anything other than you. You want to project your irrat ionality onto others.
These are not facts in evidence. A number of countries have brought the pa ndemic under control and any country willing to do what it takes can do lik ewise.
The disease is out of control only because the people are out of control. When countries have their citizen's trust and think first of their well bei ng they can have the full cooperation of the populace and control this dise ase just like any other.
Again, those are your opinions and not fact. That may be likely and many m ay agree with you, but they aren't facts and you provide no support for the m.
"it" being what exactly? Are you trying to say the UK has already had more than half the deaths that will ultimately result? You and no one else has any reason to believe that unless you have a crystal ball. As we have see n in many countries the disease can flare up if the guard is dropped. The UK is not immune to this effect.
wave-13071328/
"Again"??? Why aren't they *still* shut down? UK infection rates are lowe r than previously, but pubs are a great breeding ground for this disease an d as long as they are open the infections will not continue dropping. I se e the infection rates are indeed rising in the UK now, from about 550 weekl y average early in July to 750 now. Reverse progress is not the way to slo w the disease and prevent deaths.
The idea of allowing the disease to run rampant in children and *try* to pr otect the older populations is absurd. There is no reason to think that wi ll work other than to harm both groups.
Ah, I see. Rather than eliminating the disease, the UK is trying to preven t a big spike by allowing small spikes. Great thinking!
If the matter weren't so grave I would laugh about the UK thinking and your post. Elders indeed!
-- Rick C. +- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging +- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Ok, since you don't know this, a proper welding mask is to protect your eyes from radiation from the electrical arc. A sheet of old newspaper is not proper protection. I'll believe some homemade rag muzzle is proper protection from viruses when folks at a hospital want to trade their medically rated masks with a cloth rag.
How do you measure the "wellness" of a government?
He seems like a seasoned engineer type. I don't plan to take any medical advice from him, but I'd trust him to think out a problem better than government folks on TV.
Not interested in such action. I'll just worry about the record amounts of fresh water we have and how it makes the bike and running path a little wet.
A quick check shows the GDP of the state of Illiois is nearly that of the entire country of Australia.
You'll be eating ashes as your deserts grow while we enjoy bountiful harvests. We have some of the finest and most productive farmland in the US, and even the world.
Let's work backwards here to reduce risk in a calculated way.
How do I 100% catch covids?
From that point how do I reduce the risk? Staying 6 feet and wearing underwear on your face is just 100% made up on a whim nonsense. The value of that, if any is completely unknown.
Where do you think I thought the UV photons were coming from? The problem here isn't my ignorance, but yours.
It's not as good as hospital mask, but a lot better than nothing.
By the wellness of the people whose heath they ought to be protecting? Any government that has more than 100pm deaths from Covid-19 so far isn't doing well.
He seems to be good at playing the role.
Not a good choice. He's really averse to thinking about problems, particiarly when it comes to realising that his first thoughts were wrong.
Illinois has a population of 12.67 million, Australia has a population of 25 million. If we sequestered out the more heavily industrialised bits of Australia we could probably claim something equally impressive, and equally pointless.
At the moment. So do we, if you concentrate on the productive bits. Australia's population density is about 4 people per km^2. The US averages out at 40 people per km^2. Neither of us have that many people living in the less productive bits.
When climate change makes a mess of the currently productive bits, we'll move to the bits of our continent that it has improved. Illinois isn't that extensive.
Australian wine-growers are currently buying up large tracts in Tasmania with this in mind.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
sting little paper
g symptoms of Covid-19 are responsible for most of the spread of the diseas e, and emphasises the well-known fact that rapid contact tracing and isola tion of the potentially infected are crucial to preventing epidemic spread.
erest is in getting everybody back to work seem reluctant to take it on boa rd.
That's not what the sycophants said. Dunno what kind of imbecile bounces fr om one article to another with such a consistent level of ignorance and lac k of understanding.
resting little paper
ing symptoms of Covid-19 are responsible for most of the spread of the dise ase, and emphasises the well-known fact that rapid contact tracing and isol ation of the potentially infected are crucial to preventing epidemic spread .
terest is in getting everybody back to work seem reluctant to take it on bo ard.
from one article to another with such a consistent level of ignorance and l ack of understanding.
Fred has any number of silly idea. The US National Academy of Sciences are n't sycophants - Fred may be thinking of the top of tier of the Trump admi nistration, where a facility with flattery is necessary to stop Trump from firing you.
And he seems to think that he can understand peer-reviewed scientific paper s. Whenever he tries to spell out what he thinks is wrong with them, he dem onstrates that he can't, so he has learned to settle for content-free blust er.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
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