OT: James Arthur, the perfect market and the perfect op amp

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Okay, low-end printers and low-end computers.

You don't seem to have noticed that the comapny split in 1999, and the bit that we all had fair\th in ended up as Agilent Technologies.

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And Agilent may well still do.

I've always wondered why the low-end products got the famous name - presumably they figured that the people who buy low end computers know enough to recognise the Hewlett-Packard name, without recognising that Hewlett and Packard didn't get famous as box-shifters, while the people who buy the high-tech Agilent products will know enough to know where Agilent came from.

Do you own any Agilent shares?

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman
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That's problem with the boil-the-ink to make the jet ink-jet technology. The print heads wear out fast, and the the penny's worth of ink comes with a complete new print head.

Because you confuse what HP is now with what HP used to be before the high-tech bits we all trusted got spun off as Agilent.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman

And your evidence for this claim is?

"Might be in danger" is rather unspecific. Calling it an "absolute" lie is a longer stretch than the "might be in danger" particularly when the Tea Party idiots were one of the items that might have endangered the social security system - you seem to think that it ought be shut down, and some of the Tea Party Republican seem to be even more rabid than you are.

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Found any weapons of mass destruction in Irak yet?

No doubt Ken Starr has been approached for another stint as a special prosecutor.

Much the same. After all, it is mostly companies that bribe them.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman

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Actually, you don't. The anti-Obamacare propaganda machine found a few bogus statistics that made it look that way, but the French and the Germans get health care that is just as good as that offered to insured Americans, and their public health statistics are better because their systems are universal.

Waht you pay extra for is extravagantly expensive administration, and

- to a lesser extent - extravagantly defensive medicine that immunised doctors against malpractice suits.

That's not what the studies I seen say. Most of the money was wasted in the medical insurance industry, paying for extravagantly numerous administrative staff.

The coal industry does extract the fossil carbon that is burnt in America's generating stations, which vent lots of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. America is reponsible for about 18% of the extra CO2 fed into the atmosphere every year, and it might be a good idea if it reduced it's emissions.

You could still burn coal, capture the CO2 generated and sequester it, but that roughly doubles the cost of generating electric power by burning coal, and thermal solar power would actually be cheaper.

The long term prospects for coal mining are consequently bleak.

You don't believe in anthropogenic global warming, any more than you believe in Keynesian economics, so you regard Obama's - rather better- informed - observations as some kind of anti-capitalist assault on the coal industry.

This is merely fatuous ignorance on your part. Go away and learn some physics.

It's a small step in the right direction. "Merchants of Doubt" spelled out why this kind of move doesn't find favour with right-wing nitwits. It's not a book you'd enjoy.

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Really. It was a very popular delusion, shared by all the newspapers that I read. Technically speaking, the car companies weren't actually bankrupted before they were rescued, but this was entirely for the convneience of their rescuers, who didn't want to have to pay reeivers to administer what was left of the companies.

Not so much misinformed, as not susceptible to your favoured brand of political propaganda

Of a company that was - for all practical purposes - bankrupt.

Not a case I've ever heard of. Do tell us more. Your bizarre mispereceptions are often screamingly funny.

What was this? A chlorine-generating plant or a Bhopal-style isocynate plant in downtown New York?

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These sorts of pesky regulations are an anathema to your kind of right- wing nitwit, but dangerous industries make nerve-wracking neighbours.

Oh, I don't know. He might have read some of your comments about social security, and could have figured that there was a risk that the Tea Party republicans in congress were equally rabid. It's rather difficult to guarantee that something couldn't possibly happen, especially when you've got a bunch of right-wing nitwits involved in the process.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman

A small lesson in ethics for you Mr. Bill: if you know something is impossible, telling people it /is/ possible just to scare them for your personal gain is a lie.

It's particularly despicable--and poisonous to open, honest public debate--when coming from a President with respect to a critically important public issue that honest people are trying to agree on and solve.

That's stupid. If it weren't for the Tea Party, the USA would be rated 'BBB' right now.

Barack Obama and Paul Krugman spent us into a hole, not the Tea Party. The downgrade is theirs.

I just heard Krugman talking. He actually said that paying large masses of people to dig, then fill holes is stimulative, that it would pull us up out of recession. He sounded like an airheaded blond. It's official--he's clueless.

Nope, you made that up. That's why people don't bother responding to you. The Democrats can't resist cannibalizing SS, gobbling up legs and feet and arms in a gory feast. Their deficit spending is the threat to SS' existence.

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Exactly. What would send any CEO to jail, in public view, and that's your response. QED.

James Arthur

Reply to
dagmargoodboat

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I read "The HP Way". Beautiful.

I'm not sure I could read anything Carly wrote without a barf bag--she always struck me as a clueless new-age light weight, and her public performances only reinforced that.

But I'm getting ahead of myself and possibly being unfair--one should never judge a book by covertly spying on competing board members. (Oh dear, did I write that out loud?)

Was it a good book?

-- Cheers, James Arthur

Reply to
dagmargoodboat

Cool. Burn the entire country down. Rebuilding will create lots of jobs.

How about production of actual stuff? You can't eat or drive legal services or brokerage fees or union pension expenses.

Excuse me for mentioning "production". Nothing personal.

The multiplier effect is silly. It says that we can prosper if only we will spend all of our income, which precludes savings and investment.

Keynes was silly, but he especially didn't expect that we'd be buying most of our consumables from Japan and China and OPEC.

John

Reply to
John Larkin

Most of the sales people that call on us are helpful and honest, like the folks from Arrow and Avnet and the semi companies. They give us eval boards, access to tech support, good pricing, and will take back anything that's defective.

I had a problem with a Maxim part, called a sales guy, and he sampled me 3500 replacements. No PO, no hassle.

Even the people I meet in shoe stores are helpful. There are some bad sales people, but a little thought and caution spots them easily.

John

Reply to
John Larkin

Very good point.

tm

Reply to
tm

The multiplier stops at the seashore. Idiots like Obama praise "innovation" as the way to revive the economy, but all those iPads are made in China.

John

Reply to
John Larkin

One of her first acts at HP was to downsize the cubes.

The Way Forward was distributed to HP employees, so may not be available. An HP droid read about half (which takes, maybe, 5 minutes) and then gave it to me. It's a small book, essentially colorful PowerPoint motivational blather. The contrast to The HP Way is stunning.

John

Reply to
John Larkin

Except that's not true. They do *NOT* plane 1/4" off every side to make a dimensional 2x4 (1-1/2x3-1/2), or 3/8" off the top and bottom and 1/4" off the sides (why would lumber >2x6 be different than

Reply to
krw

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I understand the difference of course. It's just that once upon a time you didn't have to worry--if it said "HP" you knew it was excellent.

I've got a couple of their calculators from long ago. Magnificent.

Nowadays some of their stuff looks really questionable, and I question the ethics. That is, I somehow don't trust someone who's gaming their ink cartridges to prevent me from refilling them.

Why? Because that person's spending too much time plotting against my best interest. That attitude's not what I want in a supplier.

And yes Bill, I fully understand the mechanics, the economics, and the business model. I just don't respect it.

I want and give preference to a supplier that is trying to make something truly excellent, something that lasts forever, and which best serves my needs in every way. IOW, someone who's interested in my needs, trying to earn my loyalty, not trap or trick me.

I'll probably buy something HP eventually, I'm just not that motivated, excited, or interested in re-qualifying an outfit that still doesn't seem to have my best interest at heart. I buy and spec Agilent parts all the time, that's no problem.

-- Cheers, James Arthur

Reply to
dagmargoodboat

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That's truly cynical. Even if maximal for certain individuals, that is not a maximal strategy for a company. Companies have reputations, and it's in their long-term interest to protect them.

If they let in a bad batch of executives, the company suffers.

That strategy doesn't last long. If you have a group of looters who cash out the company's good name, the company quickly falls. (Assuming Obama doesn't bail them out.)

Goodwill is valuable, a long time in coming, and quickly lost.

-- Cheers, James Arthur

Reply to
dagmargoodboat

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Destruction does create extra economic activity in restoring the damage. Even somebody as silly as James Arthur ought to be able to realise that building new infra-structure - as practiced in Roosevelt's New Deal - is a more profitable way of generating the necessary extra economic activity.

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So find an economist who has worked out how to construct such a metric from accessible information

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The multiplier effect is relevant only in terms of generating extra economic activity in a recession, when the economy is running below capacity. Once the economy is running at capacity you really don't want to try to generate extra economic activity - all such attempts only create inflation.

James Arthur doesn't understand the idea of generating extra economic activity in an economy in recession, which is why he thinks it legitimate to extrapolate the idea as a way of making an economy running at capacity more productive, which even you ought to have enough sense to recognise as nonsense.

OPEC sells you unrefined oil, which is refined in US-owned refineries and sold in US owned gas station. Both the refineries and the gas stations collect a proportion of the price paid at the pump. The consumables that are made in Japan and China are sold to US distributors who in turn sell them the on to retailers. Between them they collect a substantial proportion of the price finally paid by the consumer - typically more than half.

The fact that you fail to realise this is silly. Keynes was a little better informed than you seem to be, and he was writing before OPEC and before the US had dismantled large chunks of its manufacturing industry in the name of free trade.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman

But isn't that what happened in 2003 when the housing bubble began? The rates went so low that everybody went shopping for a house. The sellers realized cheap money equated to higher prices, so they just jacked up the price of the house and the game began. Even the traders made out buying REITs and cashing in without even looking at a house. So, it seems the Fed screwed up taking rates too low for too long.

-Bill

Reply to
Bill Bowden

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Yeah, I got that vibe. It's a shame she ran for office rather than someone else.

-- Cheers, James Arthur

Reply to
dagmargoodboat

Keynseyan philosophy has been distorted by the political class to justify excess spending in good times and in bad. Short-term, you can always borrow and spend and feel better off. Short-term, you can also squirt heroin into your arm and feel good.

The economic problems of the US and Europe are systematic and long-term. Keynesian stimulus is, long-term, part of the problem.

You don't seem to appreciate the difference between "economic activity" and actual productivity. The UK has been enjoying a lot of "economic activity" lately.

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John

Reply to
John Larkin

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James Arthur lecturing on the ethics of presenting beliefs that aren't universally shared has a fairly high ironic content.

James Arthur doesn't believe that SS checks might have been in danger. Barack Obama said - and presumably believed - that they were.

James Arthur thinks that this is unethical.

James Arthur thinks that Keynesian pump-priming doesn't work, and that we should not do anything to slow down anthropogenic global warming. The fact that these beliefs aren't universally shared presumably makes this behaviour on his part equally unethical.

This begs any number of questions. What it comes down to is that James Arthur thinks that it is despicable that anybody should air an opinion that James Arthur doesn't happen to agree with. My - equally humble - opinion is that anybody who agrees with James Arthur is displaying a despicable willingness to put political prejudice ahead of scientifically established real world facts.

In your "expert" but remarkably idiosyncratic opinion.

Actually, your beloved bankers ninja-loaned you into the hole, and Barack Obama and Paul Krugman prevented the disaster from being anything like as severe as the consequences of the 1929 crash, but your political blinkers make it impossible for you to see that.

He ceratinly doesn't seem to be paying attention to the clues that determine your opinions. I - for one - am very glad of this.

You'd be one of the people who don't respond to me ...

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You'd like to think that it would send any CEO to jail. In practice, what is being complained about is that CBO costing was rushed and over- simplified, and that the higher echelons of the service could have been more diligent in resisting the pressure to get results fast.

Dubbya's reliance on out-of-date intelligence reports to claim that there was a risk the Saddam Hussein could develop weapons of mass destruction sincerely upset the US intelligence community, and he wasn't prosecuted. The problem with the CBO estimates has taken a lot longer to surface, and hasn't been accompanied by stories of sincerely upset people claiming that their advice was disregarded.

If you were less inclined to see Democrats as purely evil and Republicans as uniformly virtuous, you might have been able to detect up what I was implying.QED.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman

The Bush tax cuts also fed into the economy at that point. Reduce everybody's taxes and they have more money to spend, and one of the ways to spend it is on a better house. Bush's claimed motive for the tax cuts was to stimulate the economy.

And the problem with the US housing bubble was that it burst, with the people who'd got ninja loans walking away from the property that they had bought, flooding the housing market with houses that had to be sold. In Australia house prices are too high at the moment, in the sense that the average first time buyer can't borrow enough money to buy a house, but the prices aren't collapsing - they aren't rising and in some areas they are actually falling, but not by much - so the "bubble" here can't be said to have burst.

This moves the responsibility away from the bankers who made ninja loans to people who couldn't possibly pay them off. In countries where the banking system behaved more responsibly, the house price bubble didn't burst - house prices just stagnated. They are going to stay stagnant for quite a while now, until the world economy gets back on track. It was the ninja loans - packaged up as securitised mortgages - that created the GFC, not some miscalculation by the Fed back in 2003.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Reply to
Bill Sloman

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