OT H1N1 hmm!

I saw this live yesterday...

...Jim Thompson

--
|  James E.Thompson, P.E.                           |    mens     |
|  Analog Innovations, Inc.                         |     et      |
|  Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC\'s and Discrete Systems  |    manus    |
|  Phoenix, Arizona            Voice:(480)460-2350  |             |
|  E-mail Address at Website     Fax:(480)460-2142  |  Brass Rat  |
|       http://www.analog-innovations.com           |    1962     |
             
I love to cook with wine.      Sometimes I even put it in the food.

Yes, better than the vaccine. Vaccines have their own risks. And since their rushing the vaccine, I'd be a little concerned.

Cheers

I think Dr. Rosenfeld misquoted the deaths from flu in the US, he said

3000 deaths. I see 30,000 to 40,000 deaths as an average for the 1990s. And only about 500 for the H1N1 virus. Yes, he made my point, at this time it is not a very serious flu, but sure is creating a lot of hysteria. At one time 10,000 tweets per hour. Mike

With my luck, if I took the vaccine, I'd get the flu :-(

...Jim Thompson

--
|  James E.Thompson, P.E.                           |    mens     |
|  Analog Innovations, Inc.                         |     et      |
|  Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC\'s and Discrete Systems  |    manus    |
|  Phoenix, Arizona            Voice:(480)460-2350  |             |
|  E-mail Address at Website     Fax:(480)460-2142  |  Brass Rat  |
|       http://www.analog-innovations.com           |    1962     |
             
I love to cook with wine.      Sometimes I even put it in the food.

I don't think there's any way to be certain about that, one way or the other.

Whether this "worked" or not would depend very much on the sort of genetic drift/mutation, or inter-strain genetic crossing which were to occur... and I think that's unpredictable.

In principle, the current H1N1 strain could "jump" enough to have either or both of two effects: it could become more lethal to humans, and/or it could be antigenically different enough that acquired immunity to the current strain might not longer be effective.

The worst case would be if both were to happen at once in the same sub-strain (or if it were to happen in each way in a different sub-strain, and then someone were by chance to become infected by both and a new novel strain were created by a genetic crossing).

Influenza is one of the diseases in which prior exposure to a strain generally gives some beneficial protection against other, closely- related strains. There are other diseases (e.g. dengue fever) in which the reverse is true... in the case of dengue, recovering from one strain not only doesn't give you immunity against the other major strains, but can leave you at much greater risk of life-threatening complications due to an immune-system over-reaction (dengue hemmorhagic fever) if you're subsequently infected by a different strain.

Investigation of the unusual pattern of deaths in previous H1N1 influenza epidemics (e.g. high death rates among previously healthy adults in the the "Spanish Flu" pandemic in 1918) suggests that this sort of immune-system overreaction was involved (a "cytokine storm").

Whether this would mean that someone who has recovered from the current H1N1 strain, might be at even higher risk if a further-mutated H1N1 were to go around, is anyone's guess.

Although the current H1N1 doesn't seem to have a higher mortality/morbidity rate than typical seasonal flus (in most population groups, at least) it's nothing to scoff at. I lost an associate to it recently... a young guy, who had asthma but was otherwise in good general health. Even if H1N1 becomes no more deadly (knock on wood!) the fact that most of us have little or no established immunity to it could mean that there will be many infections, a lot of hospitalizations, and quite a few deaths.

[obDisclaimer - I'm not a doctor, just a guy on his company's ERT who reads a lot about the issue.]

--
Dave Platt                                    AE6EO
Friends of Jade Warrior home page:  http://www.radagast.org/jade-warrior
  I do _not_ wish to receive unsolicited commercial email, and I will
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Isn't that the whole idea?

If you look back at previous pandemic flu episodes, there's a disturbing pattern. The first 'wave' of a novel pandemic flu is often relatively mild... but a second 'wave' (and sometimes a third) some months later is more severe and results in a higher death rate.

That's the big concern with the current H1N1 - that this pattern of multiple 'waves' may recur. I think everybody is relieved that the first wave hasn't proven to be highly lethal. The biggest concern is that it if it behaves like previous novel pandemic flus, it may become quite a bit worse in the months to come. The hope is that an effective vaccine can be distributed before that happens.

--
Dave Platt                                    AE6EO
Friends of Jade Warrior home page:  http://www.radagast.org/jade-warrior
  I do _not_ wish to receive unsolicited commercial email, and I will
     boycott any company which has the gall to send me such ads!

Nah. Just keep your immune system healthy, and eat real food. The only time in my life I've ever got the flu is after I've had to take a flu shot. In the USAF, they ordered us to take the shots, and I got sick after each one. Haven't had a flu shot since then (or before, for that matter), and still haven't had the flu.

I get the occasional "cold", with the sniffles and scratchy throat, but it usually doesn't last more than a day or so.

Vitamin pills, AFAIK, generally do no harm. :-)

Then again, given the amount of alcohol I drink, maybe my bloodstream is a natural antiseptic! ;-}

Cheers! Rich

Nah, it's to inure people to the "You Must Submit For Your Own Good" mentality.

Cheers! Rich

Ah, but alcohol is only an antibiotic!

Actually, how resistant to alcohol are most viruses, anyway? Seems to me they'd generally be pretty robust.

Tim

--
Deep Friar: a very philosophical monk.
Website: http://webpages.charter.net/dawill/tmoranwms

Don't forget your first line of defense, the natural bacteria that live in symbiosis with you on your skin. Your sweat and dead skin feed them, and in return they guard you (and themselves) against nasty bacteria and probably carry their own immunity to viruses - I saw a thing on edjamacaishunnal teevee recently that said that bacteria need something like antibodies because they get attacked by viruses just like everybody else - so, not having an immune system, they've evolved some enzyme that cuts up viral DNA/RNA. I think it has something to do with "plasmids."

So, taking too many showers could be hazardous to your health. ;-)

Cheers! Rich

y) and

...

=A0 =A0 =A0...Jim Thompson

aid

H1N1

ut

=A0 =A0 ...Jim Thompson

and for some strange reason when the gorvenment here made a contract for buying tamiflu part of it was that the manufacturer of the vaccine cannot be held responsible for any side effects

-Lasse

and

That's somewhat like asking: Would we be better off getting Microsoft Vista now before it mutates into Windows 7?

ut

I think the "Spanish" flu was the only one that showed this pattern. The Wikipedia article

suggests that this was due to the way that the military handled flu cases during the first wave, leaving the mild cases isolated in the trenches, but shipping the severe cases back to base hospitals, allowing them to spread the more virulent variants of the virus to many more contacts.

Under normal conditions, people who are infected with less virulent variants get about more while they are infectious, and the virus population - as a whole - evolves to favour the less virulent and thus more infectious strain.

a single

This seems to be unlikely. Journalists love to scare their audience when they see the chance, but there's not a lot of evidence behind this particular scare story.

Since the virus isn't likely to become more virulent, the hope seems to be well-founded.

-- Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

Do not worry; massive use of antibiotics will *guarantee* mutation!

??? I get a blank screen...

You probably have it partially or fully blocked. If you're using Firefox, Options at bottom right, check temporarily allow...

...Jim Thompson

--
|  James E.Thompson, P.E.                           |    mens     |
|  Analog Innovations, Inc.                         |     et      |
|  Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC\'s and Discrete Systems  |    manus    |
|  Phoenix, Arizona            Voice:(480)460-2350  |             |
|  E-mail Address at Website     Fax:(480)460-2142  |  Brass Rat  |
|       http://www.analog-innovations.com           |    1962     |
             
I love to cook with wine.      Sometimes I even put it in the food.

Sorry, antibiotics have no effect whatever on viruses.

Just keep your immune system healthy - it's not that difficult. Eat right, get enough exercise and enough sleep, and remember that vitamin pills generally do no harm.

I've had measles, "German" measles, chicken-pox, and various sniffles and sore throats - as I look back, the sore throat was always a good excuse to play hooky from school. I figured out that when Mom's out of the room, I could rub the thermometer against the sheets to make it look like I had a fever. >:->

But I've never had the flu, except in the military, where they forced us, effectively at gunpoint, to take the shots.

Cheers! Rich

Figured out that would not help... ..it is a damn video (and i am on dial-up).