OT: Excess deaths stats - sanity check

I'm only concerned here about the relationship between the numbers, which I cannot make any sense of.

Sylvia.

Age specific rates, 2023, 2022, Baseline

I read all rates higher than baseline except in 85+. . . . . including all-age.

Monthly rates also higher all months but one.

RL

I see what you mean. It doesn't seem to make any sense.

All the numbers for Jan-Sept 2023 are below long term average (because a proportion of those who would naturally have died in 2023 were killed permaturely by Covid). The column total is above the long term average.

You are right - this data makes no sense at all.

It can't even with really weird population ratings.

I'll hazard a guess that some of the numbers presented there are summed over a different period so that the larger numbers are not correct.

Spreadsheets allow people to make very creative mistakes!

Thanks.

There's a update due in a couple of weeks. I'll wait to see whether that suffers the same issue, and contact them if so. Otherwise I'll just assume it was a one-off error.

Sylvia.

Worried about the Covid jabs you had then, Sylvia?

Sorry - was reading 'all deaths' chart, not age grouped table.

It looks like the anomaly in the report is resticted to 'persons' and 'males'. It is not repeated in 'female' figures.

Neither parts of the table reflect trends in the charts.

RL

My sole interest in this thread relates to having the correct data to allow conclusions to be drawn. The data in question seem to be internally inconsistent, which is to say, cannot be correct regardless of the underlying facts.

Sylvia.

I should just add that I thought I'd try to prove this impossible using algebra, and failed totally.

So then I used Excel, and was able to construct a counter example. So my intuition about this was wrong. Of particular significance appears to be that the population numbers for the base line age groups will not generally be the same as the population numbers for the current data age groups.

Oh well. Thanks to those who looked at this.

Sylvia.

It should be possible to get the numbers that went into this report under "freedom of information".

Perhaps. But Australian civil servants can be remarkably obstructive. They don't like informed criticism, and work hard to frustrate it.