OT: Climate Change, Isaac Asimov and the 1975 TV Guide

simov for the February 22, 1975 issue of the TV Guide and called "The Weath er Machine". It was reprinted as "The Big Weather Change" in "The Beginning and the End" a collection of Isaac Asimov essays.

book. You can get the book here.

ns of warm and cold. Sometimes the Arctic Ocean is open water and then it s upplies water vapor which falls on the surrounding land areas as snow. If t here is then a small drop in general temperature for a prolonged stretch of time not all the snow that falls each winter will melt each summer.

r its own weight to form glaciers. The glacier ice reflects Sunlight more e fficiently than bare ground does and cools the Earth further, so that still less of the snow that falls in the winter is melted, and the glaciers adva nce southward.

ean freezes over and the supply of water vapor is cut off. Less snow falls, so that the summer melting becomes more effective and the glaciers begin t o retreat. The retreat reduces the ice cover, allows the Earth to warm, and accelerates the retreat further. When it grows warm enough for the ice on Arctic Ocean to melt, it starts all over."

cycle without the human effect.

tarting around 450 thousand years ago. The present day is right at the poin t where the North Pole melts and turns on the Arctic Ocean's snow making ma chine.

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lt and the Arctic Ocean's snow making machine is still going to turn on. I think it would just change the period of the triangle wave. Instead of the Arctic Ice Cap returning in 100,000 years, it might return in a million yea rs or it might never return. We end up with stable halo of ice around the N orth Pole.

! Science! Science! Scary! Scary! Gives us $100 billion/year and we'll save you!" I think it's bullshit. You're not going to stop the North Pole from melting and the North Pole melting doesn't prove anything. That's just part of the natural cycle that's been going on for half a million years. I also think the bozos yelling, "It's colder and snowing more this winter! We've have nothing to worry about!" No, that's what happens when the North Pole m elts and it is going to get worse. What makes all this nonsense worse is th at we new about it 40 years ago.

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Pretty much everything. The thermal equivalent of a ground might be the bac k-ground microwave radiation - anything that's radiating into a empty sky e quilibrates with that (as well as everything else in sight).

Anything you actually work with has a thermal capacity and a thermal resist ance back to local ambient. Heat pipes offer fairly low thermal resistance paths back to ambient, usually via a decent-sized heat-sink.

If you had an object immersed in a bath of a pure fluid heated to it's loca l boiling point the local ambient temperature would be pretty well defined, but there would still be a thermal resistance from the centre of the objec t to that local ambient.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman
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[...]

I think you misunderstood Jasen's point. Do we have a device that gets hotter at the hot side when we heat the cool side? (Without a reversal of the gradient across the device, that is.)

It's certainly possible with active devices, heat pumps or some such, but that would be cheating.

Jeroen Belleman

Reply to
Jeroen Belleman

There is none. There is no thermal equivalent of a Farady shield.

But one chunk metal can be placed on or inside another, to approximate some simple circuits. Achieving a step overshoot, like an RC can do, may be impossible.

Without adding motion, there is no thermal transmission line, except the dreadful RCRC type. Thermal systems are dull.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics
Reply to
John Larkin

The local "experts" (journalists and politicians) tend to blame the big fires, and the droughts, on CO2 AGW.

The rainfall/snowpack pattern hasn't changed since good records were collected in the mid 1800's.

Before westerners showed up, about 10% of the land area of California burned every year, and it wasn't a bug deal. The brush burned and the mature trees survived. That was before fire departments and aerial tankers and flame retardents and megabuck houses built in the forests. Big fuel loads make big fires, and they burn everything.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics
Reply to
John Larkin

There are vast regions of non-experimental "science" where the overwhelming concensus is usually wrong. It changes semi-periodically, roughly once per generation, so it might occasionally be right, by accident.

Asimov's predictions were dire and wrong. Nothing new there.

I pretty much despair of recent EE grads designing anything sensible. I've interviewed too many young EEs who can't figure out a simple voltage divider, much less a transistor or an opamp. Most skipped the field theory and control theory and s+s courses because they are hard, and are electives now. I must have interviewed 50 of them, and found one (a young woman who graduated from a college in Mexico) who actually understands electricity; I hired her.

That's a separate rant.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics
Reply to
John Larkin

Den mandag den 9. januar 2017 kl. 17.39.04 UTC+1 skrev John Larkin:

afaiu they have started letting small controlled fires burn, because some species of trees turned out to be dependent on the fires and were going extinct

and small controlled fires are less dangerous that letting all the dead trees etc. accumulate and make a fire that much bigger and unstoppable

Reply to
Lasse Langwadt Christensen

Oh my..

*** thread shift .. but it relates to food and that is always permissible (according to my copy of the SED bylaws.) *** I was reading this article about the evils of sugar, and how (they) think that nutritionalist's got the obesity question wrong. It's not about energy inbalance, but a hormonal response to carbs. (I can't recall where I read it.)

George H.

Reply to
George Herold

Some decades carbs are good, and some decades they are poison. Ditto fats, dairy, meat, salt, whatever.

Some "sciences", where there is no danger of being embarassed by experiment, are necessarily fad-driven. You need to keep coming up with new stuff if you want to publish.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
picosecond timing   precision measurement  

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com 
http://www.highlandtechnology.com
Reply to
John Larkin

I guess I have a basic "faith" that science will eventually get it right.. or at least righter. But I can understand your mistrust.

The article talked about how there was a paradigm shift in the 40's when the center of science left Germany and came here. The energy balance argument makes sense.. energy in - out = stored. But we've known for a while that carbs cause a hormonal response too... more insulin, which leads to fat storage.

I see fads in all the sciences. (well I pay the most attention to solid state physics.) Topological insulators was last decades fad, I don't know what it is now. (I haven't been to a conference in a while.)

George H.

Reply to
George Herold

You can't make heat flow spontaneously from cold to hot, but in almost any situation involving steady-state heat flow, warming up the cold side does cause the hot side to warm too. (Heat sinks and transistor junctions come to mind.)

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

Reply to
pcdhobbs

OK Now I'm interpreting someone's interpretation.. bad... but I thought Jason meant a "thermal" capacitance not connected to any heat bath. So no thermal connections (through a thermal resistance) to "zero" temperature. A hunk of something floating in a heat capacity chamber is the as close as I can come. (By a heat capacity chamber I mean a vacuum space use to measure heat capacity.)

George H.

Reply to
George Herold

of a

Name one.

In 1975 there wasn't a lot of systematised observation on which to base pre dictions. Computers were still fairly big - the 4004 had just hos the marke t - and there weren't all that many around. Asimov didn't get the details r ight, but the dire part would have been spot-on.

John Larkin doesn't know much about design, so this must be taken with a gr ain of salt.

Quite a few people would feel they were being patronised if asked such simp le-minded questions, and might give answers that might test the comprehensi on of the interviewer - and John Larkin's comprehension leaves him happy re ading denialist propaganda in the Murdoch press.

they > are hard, and are electives now.

Seems odd.

She probably understood how to respond when being interviewed by an egomani ac with delusions of competence. The Mexican social structure throw up even more of that sort of clown than the US.

And just as irrational as the usual ones.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

un of a noted

ny.

k

Health advice isn't a science, but an industry.

"Health science" is an invention of the health advice industry. They take a dvantage of anything that real scientists come up with that they can turn i nto propaganda, but the propaganda isn't published in peer-reviewed journal s but rather in popular glossy magazines fine-tuned to suck in the maximum number of unsophisticated readers.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

n of a

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redictions. Computers were still fairly big - the 4004 had just hos the mar ket - and there weren't all that many around. Asimov didn't get the details right, but the dire part would have been spot-on.

grain of salt.

mple-minded questions, and might give answers that might test the comprehen sion of the interviewer - and John Larkin's comprehension leaves him happy reading denialist propaganda in the Murdoch press.

e they > are hard, and are electives now.

niac with delusions of competence. The Mexican social structure throw up ev en more of that sort of clown than the US.

Once again Slowman's determined to not understand something quite simple, a nd very common in EE.

NT

Reply to
tabbypurr

We are lucky in electronics, to have cheap parts that are linear, integrating, and differentiating. And over an astounding range of time constants, picoseconds to megaseconds.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics
Reply to
John Larkin

Physics is the best of the sciences. Nonsense doesn't last long, and its authors get scourged hard.

Electronic design isn't a science, but it gets experimentally tested pretty well too.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics
Reply to
John Larkin

s fun of a noted

irony.

ly,

hink

..

ce

String theory has yet to be scourged out of existence

John Larkin doesn't know much about science, and thinks that physics is the only experimental science. Biology and chemistry do just as well.

Astronomy and geology are largely observational, and while geology took a w hile to accept continental drift, the fact that we can now measure it in re al time means that it is now well accepted.

Like every other form of performance art. Of course John Larkin can't tell the difference between electronic design and tinkering, but a lot of artist s can't document the creative process beyond exhibiting - or in John's case - selling examples of the work in progress.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

fun of a

out

,

predictions. Computers were still fairly big - the 4004 had just hos the m arket - and there weren't all that many around. Asimov didn't get the detai ls right, but the dire part would have been spot-on.

a grain of salt.

simple-minded questions, and might give answers that might test the compreh ension of the interviewer - and John Larkin's comprehension leaves him happ y reading denialist propaganda in the Murdoch press.

use they > are hard, and are electives now.

maniac with delusions of competence. The Mexican social structure throw up even more of that sort of clown than the US.

and very common in EE.

On the contrary, egomaniacs with delusions of competence are all too common in electronic engineering - NT does seem to be prime example - and I've wo rked with enough of them to have an adequate working understand of how to c ope with them. Sending them up can be a useful tool.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

, and very common in EE.

on in electronic engineering - NT does seem to be prime example - and I've worked with enough of them to have an adequate working understand of how to cope with them. Sending them up can be a useful tool.

how ironic. And time wasting.

Reply to
tabbypurr

Funny you say that. I can work all week to lose weight but if I have one sugary thing on one day it pretty much wipes out my gain for the week out of all proportion to the caloric content. If I want to lose weight I just plain have to give up sweets... or exercise to the point I can't not lose weight. One particular summer I was kayaking some 30-50 miles a week and would return home to dinner and still being hungry would polish off better part of a carton of ice cream. The only reason I didn't lose weight was because of the muscle gain. But not many people have time to spend 3-4 hours a day exercising, not to mention the inclination.

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Rick C
Reply to
rickman

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