One wonderful thing about strongly chaotic systems is that you can blame everything on everything else.
I have personally changed the course of history; so have you.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc lunatic fringe electronics
e (6.7) on Hokkaido. The island's Tomari nuclear power plant is using emerg ency generators but no irregularities have been reported. And that's always a risky proposition. Geological instability is a predicted consequence of abrupt warming.
ere earthquakes before and there will continue to be earthquakes. There is no evidence this has anything to do with global warming. Or do you have o ther information to support that idea?
oesn't have to be massive in order to trigger seismic events. http://www.wo rldwatch.org/node/4388
take more sea level rise than is likely.
ocean they will deliver some 10 metres of sea level rise, which would be q uote enough to submerge an appreciable proportion of Manhattan.
nges that would trigger the slide are buried under a couple of miles of ice , but it will happen quite fast when it does happen (based on the sea level s rises that happened at the end of the last ice age).
t the world is as rigidly fixed as his ideas about it.
ng.
e obviously overlooking the possibility of data fluctuation so that a most recent 7-day total does not apply all 7-day intervals over a larger time in terval, etc.
I didn't apply the 7 day interval to all intervals. I compared each interv al to the next larger one. I think that constitutes a downward trend.
Hey, it's YOUR data.
Rick C.
Earthquakes are caused by stored energy (strain or gravity) and are broadly predictable on that basis. Exact timing, no; size and frequency, yes.
'strongly chaotic systems' is a buzzphrase that allows you to dismiss any and all knowledge, but there's not enough stored energy in the hot air of that expression to move the ground.
7) on Hokkaido. The island's Tomari nuclear power plant is using emergency generators but no irregularities have been reported. And that's always a ri sky proposition. Geological instability is a predicted consequence of abrup t warming.
arthquakes before and there will continue to be earthquakes. There is no e vidence this has anything to do with global warming. Or do you have other information to support that idea?
t have to be massive in order to trigger seismic events. http://www.worldwa tch.org/node/4388
as caused by GW, A or otherwise.
lobal warming.
Are you suggesting that a few more inches of sea water are causing the earth quakes? That seems pretty far fetched. As you know, Japan is on the 'ring of fire' that surrounds the pacific, earth quakes and volcanoes are expected.
George H.
ake (6.7) on Hokkaido. The island's Tomari nuclear power plant is using eme rgency generators but no irregularities have been reported. And that's alwa ys a risky proposition. Geological instability is a predicted consequence o f abrupt warming.
were earthquakes before and there will continue to be earthquakes. There is no evidence this has anything to do with global warming. Or do you have other information to support that idea?
doesn't have to be massive in order to trigger seismic events. http://www. worldwatch.org/node/4388
d take more sea level rise than is likely.
he ocean they will deliver some 10 metres of sea level rise, which would be quote enough to submerge an appreciable proportion of Manhattan.
hanges that would trigger the slide are buried under a couple of miles of i ce, but it will happen quite fast when it does happen (based on the sea lev els rises that happened at the end of the last ice age).
hat the world is as rigidly fixed as his ideas about it.
sing.
're obviously overlooking the possibility of data fluctuation so that a mos t recent 7-day total does not apply all 7-day intervals over a larger time interval, etc.
rval to the next larger one. I think that constitutes a downward trend.
It's unfiltered incident date, it does not represent the statistics of inci dence, therefore you cannot just scale it from one time interval to the nex t and expect it to be consistent.
rote:
(6.7) on Hokkaido. The island's Tomari nuclear power plant is using emergen cy generators but no irregularities have been reported. And that's always a risky proposition. Geological instability is a predicted consequence of ab rupt warming.
e earthquakes before and there will continue to be earthquakes. There is n o evidence this has anything to do with global warming. Or do you have oth er information to support that idea?
sn't have to be massive in order to trigger seismic events. http://www.worl dwatch.org/node/4388
ke more sea level rise than is likely.
cean they will deliver some 10 metres of sea level rise, which would be quo te enough to submerge an appreciable proportion of Manhattan.
es that would trigger the slide are buried under a couple of miles of ice, but it will happen quite fast when it does happen (based on the sea levels rises that happened at the end of the last ice age).
the world is as rigidly fixed as his ideas about it.
.That's what happens after a large earthquake - smaller faults adjust to lin e up with the earth movement that was the larger quake.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
If you can't predict the timing of earthquakes, predicting the size, or the frequency, is meaningless.
I design circuits that work to parts per million of expectations, because they are not fundamentally chaotic. Designing such circuits certainly takes knowledge.
And it's certainly impossible to predict the future states of chaotic systems. Or their long-term causalities. Which is why you can legitimately blame everything on anything.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc lunatic fringe electronics
Predicting the size is useful. Building codes are written around maximum displacements.
Which doesn't involve reference to the mathematics of chaotic systems, which John Larkin clearly doesn't understand.
The solar system is chaotic, over time scales of millions of years.
Weather is equally chaotic, over time scales longer than about ten days, but you can still predict seasonal changes.
Only if you are as pig-ignorant as John Larkin.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Never any metastability in a flip/flop? Or, just never thought that it was 'fundamental' chaos?
No, crystallization in metals is chaotic, but is routinely manipulated to get the appropriate grain size for mechanical properties... it isn't about the individual microcrystal orientations, but about the statistics of the ensemble. Yes, predictable. Yes, chaotic.
Same thing in electronics, you can make a crystal clock that starts from noise, but you can never predict its phase after power cycle. Yet, the phase is an unimportant item, as long as it oscillates. It has both chaotic behavior and predictability.
The buzzphrase is getting between you and reality.
John Larkin is gullible. He runs into reality from time to time, but interprets it in terms of whatever is fashionable at the time.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
You take 1% components and get ppm performance? That's impossible.
You have no way to make that measurement. The only things that come close are frequency (period) and DC voltage (i.e. HP 3456 and HP 3458).
In both cases, you have to trim the circuit to meet requirements. There is no such thing as plugging it in and reaching ppm of the expected value.
You are a master at marketing. Clearly, your customers will have no idea what you are talking about, and will love you for saying such things. But you are transitioning from reality into the mystical worlds.
Beware. They can be in your favor at the start, then turn on you. You are in danger.
6.7) on Hokkaido. The island's Tomari nuclear power plant is using emergenc y generators but no irregularities have been reported. And that's always a risky proposition. Geological instability is a predicted consequence of abr upt warming.
earthquakes before and there will continue to be earthquakes. There is no evidence this has anything to do with global warming. Or do you have othe r information to support that idea?
n't have to be massive in order to trigger seismic events. http://www.world watch.org/node/4388
was caused by GW, A or otherwise.
global warming.
I'm not sure why you call it "far fetched". Yes, it is not proven, but it seems very plausible to me. If you consider that the earthquakes are the r esult of built-up stress from movement of the tectonic plates it seems very plausible that a very minor change in pressure could cause any given earth quake, not unlike the small movement of the trigger of a gun.
Since it is very hard to show cause an effect in a case like this, the only way to show a connection is to collect enough data to show correlation whi ch we all know can not prove definitively what is cause and what is effect. So by the time we know for sure that AGW causes something it is too late to do anything about it.
One thing in favor of the denialists is that AGW will be slow enough that n one of the significant impacts are likely to occur during our lifetimes. I t will be our children who find out for sure who is right.
Rick C.
quake (6.7) on Hokkaido. The island's Tomari nuclear power plant is using e mergency generators but no irregularities have been reported. And that's al ways a risky proposition. Geological instability is a predicted consequence of abrupt warming.
re were earthquakes before and there will continue to be earthquakes. Ther e is no evidence this has anything to do with global warming. Or do you ha ve other information to support that idea?
ch doesn't have to be massive in order to trigger seismic events.
uld take more sea level rise than is likely.
the ocean they will deliver some 10 metres of sea level rise, which would be quote enough to submerge an appreciable proportion of Manhattan.
changes that would trigger the slide are buried under a couple of miles of ice, but it will happen quite fast when it does happen (based on the sea l evels rises that happened at the end of the last ice age).
that the world is as rigidly fixed as his ideas about it.
rising.
ou're obviously overlooking the possibility of data fluctuation so that a m ost recent 7-day total does not apply all 7-day intervals over a larger tim e interval, etc.
terval to the next larger one. I think that constitutes a downward trend.
cidence, therefore you cannot just scale it from one time interval to the n ext and expect it to be consistent.
"Unfiltered"??? What filtering would you apply?
I think the fact that the data is relatively consistent across all time sca les speaks volumes.
Rick C.
Really? So San Francisco has the same building standards regarding earthqu akes as every other place in the US??? I'm pretty sure we don't build to t he same standards here because the *predicted* earthquake magnitude is much smaller. That's not useful to save billions or trillions of dollars in wa sted construction costs? Unfortunately they even apply the same forecastin g to standards for nuclear plant construction.
Except that some portions of your circuits are very much chaotic. You deal with noise in nearly every design you construct. Noise is certainly chaot ic.
Only in your own mind. "Blame" is something placed by people. It is not s cientific at all. Finding cause and effect is possible even in chaotic sys tems. If you had ever studied chaotic systems you would know that.
Rick C.
Oh it is plausible ? Well then immediately dismantle all the factories, huddle together for warmth in the winter, walk to work, grow your own garden unless you live in the city in an apartment.
And get rid of all that nasty production of any kind, just buy everything from other countries so they can pollute the fish bowl WAY OVER THERE......
Until the line of credit runs out.
(that was not necessarily directed at you)
No, it's a bit like noise in electronics... just a longer timescale. You use what info you can get, when designing things.
George H.
Metastability is statistically predictable. In a modern FPGA at reasonable clock rates, you can ignore the hazard. Multi-gigabit SERDES links are reliable.
A metastable flop is nothing like as complex as a pot of boiling water.
The crystal locations and sizes are not predictable, only their gross statistics. And that is a weakly chaotic system in that there is no large-scale stucture flailing around.
It's easy to design oscillators, including XOs, that are phase coherent to startup or to a trigger, with picosecond predictability. I do that regularly.
Most oscillators don't start up from noise, they start from the power-up transient.
Yet, the
I sell thousands of products that include phase-coherent triggered oscillators.
I don't sell weather forcasts.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc lunatic fringe electronics
So, you're happy to use stats for electronic phenomena, but not for meteorological phenomena?
Bad example. The phase of the clock/data is slewed so as to avoid clocking when metastability could occur.
Neither do I, but I would sell /some/ climate forecasts - if anybody would pay for them :)
1% components would be OK, provided they are appropriately stable.
Tweak the raw ADC output with a y=mx+c (plus any other terms deemed useful) before displaying the value.
One can sometimes predict the statistics of chaotic systems; blocking oscillators and super-regens work. What you can't do in a strongly chaotic system is predict a future state at a given time. What will be the grid voltage next Tuesday at exactly noon?
And noise isn't the only issue. Linear circuits are predictable withing the accuracy limited by noise, and can be simulated to arbitrary accuracy without noise. A chaotic system can be unpredictable even with no noise; just the mathematical limits of equations or simulation are enough to jumble its future states.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc lunatic fringe electronics
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