Today, (Sep 16) global energy giant BP (BP) wrapped up its three-day investor event, in which it "said the relentless growth of oil demand is over, becoming the first supermajor to call the end of an era many thought would last another decade or more." This is a big deal, as this Bloomberg article highlights: BP [...]
It is no real surprise that the end of oil growth has started. It's no rea l surprise a major oil company is aware of it. The surprise is that a majo r oil company has acknowledged it.
Just looking at EVs alone it is clear that in 5 years there will be a lot o f excess oil production. There is some irony in the way the coronavirus ha s shuttered shale oil production in the US when they were operating on borr owed time anyway. I expect not much of that industry will resume in a year or even two when the virus is not hampering the economy and oil demand ris es a bit. It will only be a short term boost until EV production has reach ed the point of impacting gasoline use.
Sometime in the next year or so Tesla will be pumping out semi trucks that will be ideal for some of the trucking sectors and at least serviceable for other sectors. This will start to impact the demand for diesel as well. There is actually more competition with Tesla in the trucking sector in the short term, but the point is over the next half decade EVs will become mai nstream impacting not just auto/truck sales but also the use of petroleum.
Couple that with the production of inexpensive energy from wind and solar a nd you have a death spiral ahead for the oil market, a slow, downward spira l.
Good the energy companies recognize this rather than ignoring the reality a nd tilting at windmills. Now they can work to be part of the total solutio n.
-- Rick C. - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging - Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
I guess they want us (and the car-buying and house-lighting folks in India and Africa and South America) to buy our oil and gas somewhere else. We can do that.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
But you need a different plant to burn it on. You should emigrate to Venus, where global warming has already run its course.
What you ought to do is fuel your electric cars with renewable energy gener ated by windmills and solar panels, and heat your houses with reverse cycle air-conditioners, also powered from renewable sources.
The fossil carbon extraction industry would lose a lot of it's income when that happened, and they want to put it off as long as possible. One of the ways they do that is by spending a lot of money on climate change denial pr opaganda. There's a whole industry devoted to doing this kind of work.
The output isn't all that plausible but there are enough gullible twits lik e you to make it worth doing. As Lincoln said, you can fool some of the peo ple all of the time.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
I think that long haul trucks still use quite a bit of fossil fuels along with lots of jets and ships. It will be quite a quite a while I think before we are anywhere near where we need to be to reduce emissions to make a dent.
This, I believe, (in my possibly wrong opinion) is where capitalism can and is helping to further the renewable energy way of the future because they will be rewarded for their efforts. Enough people do understand the necessity of buying and using the RE produts and it makes them feel good about "helping the planet". The guvnmnt isn't going to pay for it all. Maybe some though.
is
is
us, where global warming has already run its course.
nerated by windmills and solar panels, and heat your houses with reverse cy cle air-conditioners, also powered from renewable sources.
en that happened, and they want to put it off as long as possible. One of t he ways they do that is by spending a lot of money on climate change denial propaganda. There's a whole industry devoted to doing this kind of work.
like you to make it worth doing. As Lincoln said, you can fool some of the people all of the time.
I think you are in denial or at least lacking accurate facts. In 2018 gaso line production accounted for 9.3 million barrels of oil a day. Fuel oil w as 4.1 million. Jet fuel was 1.7 million. So auto use dominates. I belie ve we can put a pretty sizable dent in this with EVs, both autos and trucks . The trucking industry is focused on costs like most. EVs present lower operating costs and will be worth swapping out fleets of vehicles to get th ose lower costs. It won't happen over night because there will need to be infrastructure built specifically for trucks. But there are no fundamental obstacles and it will happen. By 2030 the majority of trucks on the road will be quiet, non-poluting EVs mostly charged by renewable resources.
Notice on the chart that only 0.11 million barrels of oil a day are account ed for by electricity generation. So it is unlikely increases in EV use wi ll add to the carbon footprint.
There is no real need for considering the ecological benefits of EVs to jus tify buying EVs. They are on the cusp at the moment, with Tesla claiming l ower cost of ownership for EVs. Going forward as battery costs drop it wil l become clear that EVs are a less expensive means of personal transportati on and a MUCH less expensive means of commercial transportation. The gover nment isn't paying anyone to buy Teslas anymore. Tesla has reached a point of independence where they are competing head to head with ICE manufacture rs and winning. The ICE manufacturers completely get this and are working feverishly to catch up and establish their positions in the race.
By 2025 people won't be having these discussions anymore. It will be about whether Chevy, Ford, VW, Honda or Tesla is going to build the EV in your d riveway. Even JL will have an EV because California will impose a $2,000 a year ICE tax. I could be wrong about that. It could be $5,000 a year.
-- Rick C. + Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging + Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
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enus, where global warming has already run its course.
generated by windmills and solar panels, and heat your houses with reverse cycle air-conditioners, also powered from renewable sources.
when that happened, and they want to put it off as long as possible. One of the ways they do that is by spending a lot of money on climate change deni al propaganda. There's a whole industry devoted to doing this kind of work.
s like you to make it worth doing. As Lincoln said, you can fool some of th e people all of the time.
soline production accounted for 9.3 million barrels of oil a day. Fuel oil was 4.1 million. Jet fuel was 1.7 million. So auto use dominates. I bel ieve we can put a pretty sizable dent in this with EVs, both autos and truc ks. The trucking industry is focused on costs like most. EVs present lowe r operating costs and will be worth swapping out fleets of vehicles to get those lower costs. It won't happen over night because there will need to b e infrastructure built specifically for trucks. But there are no fundament al obstacles and it will happen. By 2030 the majority of trucks on the roa d will be quiet, non-poluting EVs mostly charged by renewable resources.
nted for by electricity generation. So it is unlikely increases in EV use will add to the carbon footprint.
ustify buying EVs. They are on the cusp at the moment, with Tesla claiming lower cost of ownership for EVs. Going forward as battery costs drop it w ill become clear that EVs are a less expensive means of personal transporta tion and a MUCH less expensive means of commercial transportation. The gov ernment isn't paying anyone to buy Teslas anymore. Tesla has reached a poi nt of independence where they are competing head to head with ICE manufactu rers and winning. The ICE manufacturers completely get this and are workin g feverishly to catch up and establish their positions in the race.
ut whether Chevy, Ford, VW, Honda or Tesla is going to build the EV in your driveway. Even JL will have an EV because California will impose a $2,000 a year ICE tax. I could be wrong about that. It could be $5,000 a year.
Forgot the link...
-- Rick C. -- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging -- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
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** Despite all the other insanities this trolling f****it posts - that one takes the cake..... Phil
It is interesting that there is a 25 percent tariff on Lithium battery cells from China if the cost is OVER 70 cents per cell.
I think I can guess who is getting their cells for less than 70 cents when other may have to pay over $2.00 per cell
Which of those categories are diesel for trucking transportation ?
Diesel Fuel Oil maybe ?
Transportation ?
Etc... ?
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o Venus, where global warming has already run its course.
gy generated by windmills and solar panels, and heat your houses with rever se cycle air-conditioners, also powered from renewable sources.
me when that happened, and they want to put it off as long as possible. One of the ways they do that is by spending a lot of money on climate change d enial propaganda. There's a whole industry devoted to doing this kind of wo rk.
wits like you to make it worth doing. As Lincoln said, you can fool some of the people all of the time.
Igasoline production accounted for 9.3 million barrels of oil a day. Fuel oil was 4.1 million. Jet fuel was 1.7 million. So auto use dominates. I believe we can put a pretty sizable dent in this with EVs, both autos and t rucks. The trucking industry is focused on costs like most. EVs present l ower operating costs and will be worth swapping out fleets of vehicles to g et those lower costs. It won't happen over night because there will need t o be infrastructure built specifically for trucks. But there are no fundam ental obstacles and it will happen. By 2030 the majority of trucks on the road will be quiet, non-poluting EVs mostly charged by renewable resources.
counted for by electricity generation. So it is unlikely increases in EV u se will add to the carbon footprint.
o justify buying EVs. They are on the cusp at the moment, with Tesla claim ing lower cost of ownership for EVs. Going forward as battery costs drop i t will become clear that EVs are a less expensive means of personal transpo rtation and a MUCH less expensive means of commercial transportation. The government isn't paying anyone to buy Teslas anymore. Tesla has reached a point of independence where they are competing head to head with ICE manufa cturers and winning. The ICE manufacturers completely get this and are wor king feverishly to catch up and establish their positions in the race.
about whether Chevy, Ford, VW, Honda or Tesla is going to build the EV in y our driveway. Even JL will have an EV because California will impose a $2,
000 a year ICE tax. I could be wrong about that. It could be $5,000 a yea r.I think you don't understand the chart. Each section of the graph is showi ng separate types of quantity based divisions. Transportation would be a c ombination of various fuel types as would be industrial. The fuel oil cate gory is where diesel motor fuel would come from and transportation is where it would be used. Motor gasoline is more than twice the amount of fuel oi l and relatively little of that is used for anything other than fueling veh icles. Jet fuel is again half the fuel oil so an even smaller slice of the pie.
Powering EVs instead of ICE will have impacts on gasoline consumption going forward and become very significant in by 2025 by many accounts.
People are in denial about the future of EVs, but it is very clear to me th at even the US auto makers understand the significance of EVs and are pouri ng everything they've got into their development at this point.
I won't say hybrids aren't useful. They help reduce the petroleum used, bu t few of them are used the way Win does, running shorter daily trips 100% f rom his battery. So the carbon and energy benefits are limited compared to EVs.
Battery EVs are not just the way of the "future" since the "future" of EVs is available, right now, today. Even the oil companies realize this.
-- Rick C. -+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging -+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Diesel ia a type of engine, not a type of petroleum. Distillate is what they put in the tank.
-- Jasen.
Jasen Betts wrote pedantic crap as usual:
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** The word refers to either. ** Petrol and Diesel fuel are both petroleum distillates.Is steak sauce made from steak ?
.... Phil
Disagree. He has in fact done better.
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Switching to electric vehicles is expected to increase the load on electric ity generation by about 30%. We don't have to burn any fossil carbon to gen erate electricity (though we do burn quite a lot in power generating plants at the moment) so the effect on the carbon footprint is uncertain.
What is certain is the burning gasoline derived from crude oil is responsib le for quite a bit of our carbon footprint, and that going over to electric vehicles would let us reduce it, if we went to the trouble of getting most of our electric power from renewable sources (which is not something that the fossil carbon extraction industry wants to happen) .
ne takes the cake.
The miserably under-informed share their ill-founded opinions.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
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icity generation by about 30%.
While EVs may ultimately require a 30% increase in generation, it won't req uire any increase in generating capacity because of the huge amounts of idl e time of a significant portion of generating capacity.
There may be some increase in peak time usage by EVs, but in the end that m ay be balanced by or even over compensated for by the reduction in electric usage by the gasoline distribution industry.
So while there may be more electricity being utilized, it won't require add ed capacity. It simply requires more consistent usage of the resources on hand. In the end this lowers the cost of electricity for everyone.
e do burn quite a lot in power generating plants at the moment) so the effe ct on the carbon footprint is uncertain.
In the short term most EV charging is done at home at night when the costs are lowest and the free generating capacity (free in both senses of the wor d since it's already there to use, just pay the marginal costs) is sitting idle. This is mostly petroleum or coal and will increase pollution for the short term. As the generating sources change and/or the day time producti on of solar is stored in batteries to be used at night (who saw that one co ming?) the carbon impact will be less.
Charging during the day can be encouraged as solar takes off. However prov iding a price advantage will be awkward unless it is done for all consumpti on. Adding extra meters to handle the billing will be costly and homeowner s will not want to pay for it. Charging at work will require additions to parking facilities, most of which are presently just sheets of asphalt. Th at won't happen any time soon either.
I suspect the 30% number is not accurate. Taking an average annual mileage number of 12,000 miles and a typical energy consumption of 4 miles per kWh gives 3,000 kWh per year or just over 8 kWh per day. That is only half of my summer usage and I didn't turn on the AC this summer. Factor in that m ost people see their bills double or triple in the summer and those with he at pumps increase in the winter, none of which accounts for the commercial sector's electricity usage.
I'd like to see some numbers that show EVs using 30% of the current generat ion total. Just as many have said that there will not need to be any distr ibution infrastructure changes from EV home charging, I find it implausible that EVs will suck up 30% of the generation capacity or that it will requi re anything to be added other than site specific changes.
ible for quite a bit of our carbon footprint, and that going over to electr ic vehicles would let us reduce it, if we went to the trouble of getting mo st of our electric power from renewable sources (which is not something tha t the fossil carbon extraction industry wants to happen) .
It will also require coordination of charging with production unless we wan t to charge batteries so the car batteries can be charged when convenient.
I expect it will encourage people to install solar at home. If I had 2 kW on my house it would take care of my charging needs and also provide excess for the house. I might not need to use net metering at all. That's a low enough figure that between charging the car and supplying the house it wil l all get used up without involving the utility to act as my capacitor. Ad d a small battery, say 10 kWh and I might not need to buy power from the ut ility until it gets cold.
-- Rick C. ++ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging ++ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Fortunately, our airhead governor won't be in power by 2035, and his proclamation doesn't have the force of law anyhow.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc Science teaches us to doubt. Claude Bernard
Gavin Newsom may be an airhead, but John Larkin on anthropogenic global war ming is gullible sucker for denialist propaganda.
The immediate consequences of global warming are making life difficult in C alifornia right now - though John Larkin can't see the connection - and mak ing electric cars mandatory would be a contribution to reducing anthropogen ic global warming. They are also going to be cheaper to run, so they are go ing to take over the market anyway.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
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