4 Bit MCUs, Still Alive and Kicking?

Am 15.06.2022 um 16:12 schrieb Uwe Bonnes:

Amen. Or, as the saying goes:

"All prognoses are hard, even more so those concerning the future."

(Made famous by Niels Bohr, but may have been a widely known in his home country of Denmark before that).

Let's face it: unless you're a major customer (and no, an order volume of a million units does not reliably make you one), any and all expectations about parts availability in the micro controller market that reach further than a few months into the future are recklessly optimistic. And that was how it was _before_ the pandemic and all its side effects.

If you need to be sure you have those chips in quantity x over the run of a given product, and x has fewer than 7 digits, your only truly safe bet is to stockpile the whole lot up front. The next-safest plan would be to stockpile enough of them to tide you over the conservatively estimated time for a redesign of the board and most of the lower-level software. Obviously neither of those options is cheap; but the main alternative is that you may one day have to discontinue your whole product because that one part suddenly turned into unobtainium.

Reply to
Hans-Bernhard Bröker
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easy!

So how do you stockpile inventory for a product when you don't know the ult imate sales volume? I designed a board for a company 14 years ago. I orig inally sold maybe 100 a year average (100 piece minimum). Volumes grew unt il I was getting orders for several thousand in one year and none in the ne xt. Now I have an order for 10,000 pieces. The company I sell these to ha s always refused to commit to any quantity. It's not always feasible to pl an for future production, so this idea is clearly not a panacea.

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Rick C. 

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Reply to
Rick C

Major customers are in exactly the same boat. Car manufacturers have had to pause production, or switch to different models and delay deliveries, because they can't get the parts. HP can't get parts for its printers, D-Link can't get components for their switches. Even the companies that make the electronics for the machines that make components can't get the parts they need to get new semiconductor plants online.

You do the best you can, adapting as you go. If you can stockpile - you can get the parts, and you have the cash flow - do so. If not, there's a lot of luck involved no matter how skilled and hard-working you are. If you can spread your risks, making a variety of different devices, that's a good way to lower the overall risk.

Otherwise you make what you can, when you can, and hope your customers are still around when you are finally able to deliver the boards. At least there is little risk of them going to your competition in the meantime, as everyone has the same challenges getting the parts.

Reply to
David Brown

On 2022-06-16 Rick C wrote in comp.arch.embedded:

You cannot plan for everything unfortunately. :-(

But talk to your customers. Explain that they need to commit to a quantity so you can buy parts upfront. And that if they don't, there is a risk that there will be no parts when needed. At least, that is what we do. Most customers will be aware of the situation and willing to give guaranties (and pay for the parts) to make sure they can get their product in the future. And if not, they have been warned of the risks.

But still, you cannot stockpile everything. So 100% guarantees are not possible, but they never where.

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Stef 

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Reply to
Stef

It seems that last category do have better luck than "the rest of us". My employer makes a black box that's designed into some semiconductor tool or other. We haven't been able to build said boxes for some time because we can't get FPGAs and Ethernet switch chips.

Our customer (who makes semiconductor tools) asked which parts we neeed to build more black boxes. A week later they informed us that

5000 of the FPGAs had been shipped to us, and they were about to have a chat with the manufacturer of the Ethernet switch chips. [I haven't heard the results of that chat.]
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Grant
Reply to
Grant Edwards

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ultimate sales volume? I designed a board for a company 14 years ago. I or iginally sold maybe 100 a year average (100 piece minimum). Volumes grew un til I was getting orders for several thousand in one year and none in the n ext. Now I have an order for 10,000 pieces. The company I sell these to has always refused to commit to any quantity. It's not always feasible to plan for future production, so this idea is clearly not a panacea.

LOL!!! Oh, I've tried to talk to them. They are not at all interested. O ne of the key components on this board (by "key", I mean irreplaceable with out a respin) Went EOL in 2013. I could still buy them only because Arrow stocked a *bunch*. When I gave a warning to my customer, they bought 3,000 devices. However, when it came time to use them, they were missing. lol In subsequent situations, anytime I ask them to help with projections, th ey are silent.

Being warned means nothing to me. I am the guy who has to deal with the he adache.

Exactly my point. Also, stockpiles carry risk of leaving you stuck with ma terial you can't use... although, these days, excess material is worth mone y.

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Rick C. 

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Reply to
Rick C

One thing not mentioned is that all design at present should be done to use only common functions in micros and no use of specialist devices. If the code is written right, it makes it easier to respin for a different device if supply becomes difficult...

Chris

Reply to
chris

It's nice to hear the occasional success stories of common sense!

I read somewhere about another company who make some kind of boards used in the semiconductor manufacturing industry. They ended up buying some

400 brand new washing machines, to cannibalise them for a couple of components.

It's a tough branch at the moment :-(

Reply to
David Brown

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Reply to
Herbert Kleebauer

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