Water is very weird stuff. It's black at thermal wavelengths. Its density vs temperature curve seems optimized for ice skating: it preferentially freezes in a thin layer on top.
The Great Lakes freeze pretty hard every winter, enough to drive trucks on. Donner Lake ices over.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc lunatic fringe electronics
Am 17.01.19 um 11:01 schrieb snipped-for-privacy@downunder.com:
It would be good to be very far away if someone had left an empty vodka bottle there in the sun. :-)
Cheers, Gerhard
I think the name "polar vortex" is new, or at least newly popular.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc lunatic fringe electronics
OK, I'm a Californian. Yes, mud slides are dangerous. Prudent people don't live in houses on the downslopes of mud hills.
We have a thin layer of soil that clings loosely to rocks. The hills form subterranean channels where the winter rains concentrate. We sometimes see water bubbling out of the middle of a street when it rains... like today. It's dirty water because it's been washing the dirt away.
The only new thing about this is that we are building houses and paving streets and sidewalks, changing the hydrology and putting people in harm's way.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc lunatic fringe electronics
Yup, signs of unwarranted terror on the part of some folks here.
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According to AGW supporters, the polar region temperature rise will be many times larger than average. Some talk about 10 C polar temperature rise. With added greenhouse gases, the radiative heat losses will decrease during nights and winter, thus it takes longer to cool down during the winter. So, if the winter temperature increases from -40 C to -30 C, so there is a 10 C increase. Not a big deal for melting.
The hypothesis that warm air/water from the equator (e.g. Gulf stream) transport heat to the Arctic region makes more sense e.g. melting the Greenland glacier. It would be highly unlikely that radiation and reduced winter night radiation losses could melt such huge amount of ice (at 330 kJ/kg). Assuming more heat is transported with the Gulf stream to the north, this heat is removed from the equator and it should cool, while polar regions warm up.
So which one is it ?
According to my understanding, in a high pressure area, cold and dry upper troposphere air drops down and exits from the area towards low pressure area flowing close to the surface in bending paths (Coriolis). How could this transport heat to the polar region ?
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ea, the severity of which has not been seen for 3,000 years. Then the idea the arctic can go ice free, which is expected summer 2019, without extremel y serious consequences, inducing weather phenomena that don't even have a n ame yet, is beyond denial, it's plain insane.
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ant amounts of ice.
by warm ocean waters and air moving north into the region.
The arctic is a concentrated end point of ocean circulation. As these curre nts travel back to the south, they are gaining heat over a much, much large r area, making the resulting temperature drop less.
mple, that are responsible for disrupting the jet stream causing these wild vortex swings of arctic air dipping to way southern latitudes as far south as 30oN latitudes. Once these were considered a meteorological fluke, they are now an annual occurrence.
whit3rd wrote in news: snipped-for-privacy@googlegroups.com:
You are simple.
Large chunks of ice and water bearing non-iron meteor fragments make it far enough in that water gets added. WAKE UP!
Truth it is. Water has been constantly being added to our planet.
That seems to be real:
Plus, water can be trapped in minerals.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing precision measurement jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
Accuweather has to keep generating clicks to survive.
We've lived in the northern suburbs of NYC for over 31 years now, and by far the most brutal winter we've seen was in 1988. At our house it got down to about 5 below zero. (That's in the high-resolution Fahrenheit scale, son, meaning about minus 21 degrees in your backward-looking, coarse-resolution Frenchified language. [ 's a joke, son, jes' a joke.])
The last couple of winters' "polar vortexes" were apparently caused by a hotspot in the North Pacific that has now gone away, apparently due to several storms in the area enhancing ocean mixing so that cold water from deep down arrived at the surface. Hoopy.
I'd never heard the term 'polar vortex' before about 2014, when a previous succession of cold winters in the Northeast drove the meteorological talking heads to seek new vocabulary. ;)
We all gotta make a living.
Cheers
Phil Hobbs
-- Dr Philip C D Hobbs Principal Consultant ElectroOptical Innovations LLC / Hobbs ElectroOptics Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics Briarcliff Manor NY 10510 http://electrooptical.net http://hobbs-eo.com
d by warm ocean waters and air moving north into the region. It's the warm high pressure air masses coming up from the south, for example, that are re sponsible for disrupting the jet stream causing these wild vortex swings of arctic air dipping to way southern latitudes as far south as 30oN latitude s. Once these were considered a meteorological fluke, they are now an annua l occurrence.
Jet stream wind speeds, and hence resistance to developing wobble due to so uthern warm high pressure air mass interference, is a function of the tempe rature difference between temperate and arctic zones. GW has reduced this t emperature differential considerably. Jet stream has lost intensity/ moment um and is therefore susceptible to a pretty wild wobble. What goes down als o must come back up, so the vortex contribute to arctic warming, just anoth er runaway effect.
Huh that graph is interesting. You do thermal escape (of gas) as a physics problem. Figures it's called Jeans escape, turn of the century (the previous one) physicists got to do all the fun calculations.
George H.
Not all that long. You probably don't remember Allied and Newark.
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he severity of which has not been seen for 3,000 years. Then the idea the a rctic can go ice free, which is expected summer 2019, without extremely ser ious consequences, inducing weather phenomena that don't even have a name y et, is beyond denial, it's plain insane.
John Larkin is a sucker for denialist propaganda, and uniquely incapable of detecting when he is being suckered.
It's dead easy to run a sourcewatch check on his authorities, but he has ne ver learned how to do it.
Or maybe he gets a buck for every denialist link he posts ...
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
by warm ocean waters and air moving north into the region. It's the warm hi gh pressure air masses coming up from the south, for example, that are resp onsible for disrupting the jet stream causing these wild vortex swings of a rctic air dipping to way southern latitudes as far south as 30oN latitudes. Once these were considered a meteorological fluke, they are now an annual occurrence.
Apparently the term was first used in 1853. It was observed with radio-sond es going up to above 20km around 1950. It's a permanent feature of the pola r atmospheres, but John Larkin will only have heard it if the TV weather an nouncers use it.
He can post wikipedia links, but doesn't seem to be able to read them.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
That's what's fun about a chaotic system: everything is a function of everything.
The opportunities for pontification (and publishing, and panicking) are great.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing precision measurement jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
Meaningless word salad.
Chaos is not a system.
Chaos, chaotic behaviors are easily understood, mathematically. They sound scary, though, and creeps like to talk up boogeymen.
"Everything is a function of everything" is a good model for dealing with a large and complex world. That's why people use spreadsheets, and math covers matrices. Multivariate analysis and partial differential equations aren't enemies, they're tools.
Eisenhower once said "plans are useless, but planning is indispensable" and what he meant, was that we get good results from our tools even when there are uncertainties.
We only get paralysis, indecision, and wiped out by uncertainty alone. Don't go there, no matter what the creeps urge.
Sometimes a 3-body system is chaotic: a microscopic change in any position or velocity will totally change the future states of the system. One of the objects might be ejected from the system, or two might collide, or maybe not.
Some systems are not usefully simulated no matter how much compute power is available. Even floating point rounding errors are enough to change future states radically.
Especially so if the physics is not understood and the current state can't be measured. And people keep discovering new causalities in the earth's climate system, trashing all the old models.
The explanation for why the old climate simulations weren't predictive is "but the models are better now."
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing precision measurement jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
Silly wabbit. The math shows you how sensitive the future is to input data, and quantum mecanics guarantees there's an uncertainty in any measurement, so of course there's sensitivity, and even randomness, with measurement and prediction. All observed physics shows it, in accordance with our theories.
That's not, however, an artifact: that's the universe we live in. Thinking you can do 'better' somehow, is a fantasy.
'Chaotic' is your boogeyman, not mine.
So? If you want something non-chaotic, you're in the wrong universe. Moreover, statistical mechanics and thermodynamics are very workable, and assume/require chaotic behavior at their core.
You can't move a tree, because it's rooted in the ground. You cant change science, because it's rooted, too- in reality.
Er, not necessarily. Having no fear is commonly associated with psychopathy. We could do with a lot fewer psychopaths!
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