OT: US history..

From an investment newsletter:

At the beginning of the American War of Independence, the Continental Congress decided to print money, the Continental. The value was supposed to be based on the Spanish dollar, the famous "pieces of eight," which equaled eight silver Spanish reales.

The Continental Congress intended on printing 2 million Continentals. It soon realized it didn't have enough to pay its debts (sound familiar?). So by 1779, the congress had printed more than 242 million Continentals. The British waged a counterfeiting campaign, compounding the problem. By the time the Continental Congress stopped printing them in 1781, it took $168 worth of Continentals to buy a $1 silver coin. Hence the old saying, "Not worth a Continental."

The Spirit of the Continental lives on in today's U.S. dollar... The Federal Reserve came about in 1913, largely as a political response to the Panic of 1907. Among the Fed's stated goals today are "conducting monetary policy... in pursuit of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates," and "maintaining the stability of the financial system."

I'll let you judge how stable the financial system is and how the Fed's doing at maintaining "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates." But the monetary policy? The Fed has done quite a number on your money: What cost $1 in 1913 now costs more than $21. What cost $1 in 2009 would have cost about $0.05 in 1913. Hence, the Federal Reserve has reduced the value of the U.S. dollar by approximately 95% during its 97-year tenure.

And the Fed's not done yet! Not by a long shot. In fact, Tim Geithner told the whole world yesterday the devaluation of the U.S. dollar is an absolute certainty now. He didn't put it in so many words. They never do. But according to Reuters, he said, "It is very important for people to understand that the United States of America, and no country around the world, can devalue its way to prosperity, to [be] competitive. It is not a viable, feasible strategy and we will not engage in it."

Geither sounds a lot like a child denying the inevitable. I learned a lot about this sort of thing growing up: "We will not devalue the currency" lives in my mind next to, "I'm not getting in that bathtub," "I'm not eating those vegetables," and perhaps most memorable of all for me, "I'm not going to bed now, because I'm not tired." Every time I uttered that last one, I was sawing logs within minutes.

Reply to
Robert Baer
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The Fed can buy up Treasuries and remit the interest back to Treasury. That is what was done in WWII. It will not devalue the currency because the extra money is never circulated. It cannot be done infinitely, but both medicare and social security have a temporary cash flow problem. This will allow the problem to be avoided mainly by allowing economic growth to eclipse this debt. The total US WWI debt was something like $220 billion - less now than the market cap of some companies. Not all that difference is inflation; about half is, and half is because the economy of the US is about 12.3 times the size it was then.

But none of this matters unless the economy can be gotten back onto a growth path.

-- Les Cargill

Reply to
Les Cargill

Might be a little further off topic, but the BBC has a really nice podcast on Spanish pieces of eight. If you ever wondered what the Spanish did with all that silver from South America, here's your answer. Link:

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-mpm

Reply to
mpm

s
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But that is effectively printing money, right? The government spends it directly into circulation, then borrows it from the Fed, who prints it.

That's why gold's soaring.

No one's going to hire now, not while they have no idea what their taxes will be next year, nor the cost (or legality) of their health care benefits under Obamacare.

To hire usually just wouldn't make any sense, not unless you're super- profitable and growing madly, i.e., desperate for new people, no matter the cost.

-- Cheers, James Arthur

Reply to
dagmargoodboat

There was true economic growth then due to production growth. Does not exit now..unemployment is growing = = less production; more "outsourcing" (to other countries) = = less production and less jobs. Gotto 200 percent ditch those bums in WA DC or fergiddit!

Reply to
Robert Baer

That is a bit on the large / long side for me..but i will try to get it.

Reply to
Robert Baer

...

Isn't that just the reason the US govt is whining about the Chinese currency being undervalued?

--
Dirk

http://www.transcendence.me.uk/ - Transcendence UK
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/onetribe - Occult Talk Show
Reply to
Dirk Bruere at NeoPax

Not if it's tightly targeted - meaning you know exactly where the money is going. The problem with it is that it is a bet on future growth that you're now committed to.

I'm not saying "don't be afraid", I'm just saying "this seems to be able to work." Maybe. People like Peter Orszag

*don't* like this approach, so who you gonna listen to, him or me :)?

Gold is soaring because people are paranoid. Maybe they're right; maybe not - chances are "not". All commodities are up because there are more people investing in arbitrage of commodities, because there's not a good place *to* invest right now. And what I read says angel and VC are both pretty strong, which has been a leading indicator.

I wouldn't worry much about hyperinflation. For one, there's too much value risk in real estate and for another, the money supply hasn't really grown.

That's not showing up as the principal reason right now. People are "not hiring" mainly because they don't really have positions open. They wish to have the appearance of having positions open. it's about the point in the process where everybody's waiting on somebody else to start hiring in order to CYA.

Well, everybody is having far too much fun being macho about the job they have now to truly grow, IMO. But not everybody. Firms don't hire just to add capacity - they hire to expand the team. I'm still seeing larger latencies in parts delivery and just about everything - having gone through two or four of these downturns, that smells like hiring could pick up to me.

I never liked those "desperate for new people" situations much, either - too easy for the big talkers to get in positions of authority. Slow is better.

-- Les Cargill

Reply to
Les Cargill

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