OT: Fossil fuels fall to record low proportion of UK energy mix

You evidently aren't aware of how the accountant-driven markets operate.

When you find gas/coal plants only operate infrequently, the cost per kWh looks intolerably high and the return on investment too risky. At that point those "uneconomic" plants are decommissioned. Blackouts then occur, but in economic terms those are an "externality", i.e. somebody else's problem (SEP). Somebody else is another generating company, and/or the transmission company and/or the energy supply company and/or the consumers and/or the politicians.

Dysfunctional madness? Of course. That doesn't stop it happening.

Note all that /does/ occur even though the capital costs have been sunk. Hence that part of your contention is not valid.

So, how do you suggest avoiding that kind of SEP idiocy?

It helps, but the intermediate thought processes need not be entirely rational.

I've successfully jiggled the brainstorming thought processes w.r.t. wireless lans by asking "how would you do it with yoghurt?" :)

South Australia's electricity consumption fluctuated between 0.85GW at midday today to an expected peak of 2.4GW tomorrow at 6.00pm, so 128GW.hour is somewhere between three and ten minutes of that.

That's not what it was bought to deal with.

The biggest single power generator in South Australia can manage 478MW but it's one of a number fast start gas turbine set-ups.

The battery is mainly there to cope with very short term fluctuations (at which it is brilliant) and keep the grid going until the fast start generators have started up.

Another 30MW.hour of batteries was installed recently somewhere else to sort out some local issue or other.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

That paper is nearly 3 years old. Connection to the continent was then

2 GW to France and 1 GW to the Netherlands. All those and most proposed links are SCR based systems that are suitable for unidirectional bulk point-to-point transfer. The change the direction of energy flow, you have to reverse the line polarity, which you do not want to do very often. Most useful for nuclear power transfer.

According to

one 1 GW link to Belgium, completed this year and 1 GW to France and

1.4 GW completed next years are IGBT based, thus capable of faster changes in power level and transfer direction, which makes them usable to even out random renewable production in different geographical areas.

That 14 GW sounds quite optimistic based on the list above and after Brexit.

The large capacitance of cables makes long AC cables impractical, thus HVDC has to be used. In addition, the UK (as well as Scandinavian) net are not synchronized with the continental AC network, AC/DC/AC conversion is needed anyway.

Short time variations (1-10 s) are usually handled by the spinning reserve i.e. the inertia of the turbo generators and short time overload capacity, so the emergency gas turbines can be started and synchronized to the net in about 30 s,

Most of the commentary about the way the Telsa battery in South Australia is used suggest that it has replaced the "spinning reserve", so you don't get short term shifts in phase and amplitude. It also replaced a bunch of static devices.

It makes most of it's money out of providing these services - about $A50 million per year IIRR.

It does make some money by buying up power from the grid when it is cheap and selling it back the grid when the price is higher, but that's apparently worth only about $A5 million a year.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

rote:

tore the water incidentally store a lot of energy, the fool here is Cursito r Doom.

er, and no accepted sites for new hydro.

xported 29% of that in 2015.

Scotland is a small percentage of the UK of course

nly form of grid scale power storage. In Australia we've been frequently re minded that South Australia bought 128 MW.hours of battery storage from Elo n Musk.

yes, there are other equally not very practical options. This stuff has bee n talked about enough before.

ng out Lithium in batteries for his electric cars, and could deliver in le ss than 100 days. Somebody is probably building a vanadium redox battery pr oduction line somewhere - most likely in China - but they don't seem to nee d new investors at this point, so we don't get to hear about it.

as if the miners are now supplying the increased demand.

e power consumption, and enough energy storage - pumped hydro and batteries are the current market leaders - you could rely on intermittent renewable sources.

t of practice in tooling up to satisfy new demand.

Like a lot of things it's possible but not very practical.

NT

in the distant future that might be the case, but not now.

We don't have neighbours, we only have one neighbour, France.

NT

You don't say. I thought the point was obvious enough, since we don't have the above things and aren't going to have them it's a bit pointless pontificating about a scenario that is not reality.

NT

that's so wrong it's almost funny.

I've heard of loads being shed but not shredded. Load shedding is only practical to a very limited extent and already practiced to that extent

They won't because they won't get built here. Hydro schemes have significant problems too.

snip

exactly - and that's not their only major shortcoming.

NT

they would, and they're about as practical, ie not.

NT

that's one way to overlook the problems.

age power consumption, and enough energy storage - pumped hydro and batteri es are the current market leaders - you could rely on intermittent renewabl e sources.

lot of practice in tooling up to satisfy new demand.

Ah, finally, a statement worth replying to. Wrong, but worth arguing.

The cost of renewables are steadily decreasing, currently below the cost of not just building new capacity of other types, but below the cost of USING existing fossil fuel generating capacity. The added cost of providing bac kup storage is steadily decreasing as well. It is just a matter of time un til the two combined are competitive with other generating capacity. The d irection of the economic comparisons and the end result are not in dispute. The only question is when.

In the mean time there are specific needs that are being met by the ever lo wer costs of energy storage. Not unlike many products initially the high p rice keeps the new product from many applications. Then as the cost drops more and more markets open with larger and larger volumes further reducing the costs.

Compare the every rising cost of installing nuclear generating capacity and the ever growing schedules. Plants that were expected to be built in a sm all number of years have turned into decades long projects. That really me sses with the profits too making them a pariah to investors, requiring the government to take all the risk.

I understand in the UK the recent nuclear fiasco has resulted in the govern ment saying the next nuclear project will have the ratepayers as the fall g uy for the cost and schedule overruns. We already do that in the US. In S outh Carolina they spent 9 billion dollars for a very, very nice hole in th e ground which they will now need to pay to have filled in. I hope it's no t another 9 billion dollars for that.

--

  Rick C. 

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rators completely. In the end this will be not just cleaner, but cheaper t han nuclear and fossil fuels.

Yes, that's what he said. At least your reading comprehension is good.

any

:

's neighbors. I know there are power lines to France, but the total capaci ty is still pretty small.

I hope there are no Belgians here or Netherlanders or Norwegians. They mig ht feel offended. Heck, I guess I shouldn't leave out the Danes and the Ge rmans. We had a Dane come to our badminton for a while. The guy was great . He could play circles around us literally. I think his name as Jasper.

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  Rick C. 

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erage power consumption, and enough energy storage - pumped hydro and batte ries are the current market leaders - you could rely on intermittent renewa ble sources.

d lot of practice in tooling up to satisfy new demand.

of not just building new capacity of other types, but below the cost of USI NG existing fossil fuel generating capacity. The added cost of providing b ackup storage is steadily decreasing as well. It is just a matter of time until the two combined are competitive with other generating capacity. The direction of the economic comparisons and the end result are not in disput e. The only question is when.

Sure, but that doesn't mean the time to go that route is now. If we did, co sts would go up greatly.

NT

age power consumption, and enough energy storage - pumped hydro and batteri es are the current market leaders - you could rely on intermittent renewabl e sources.

still have nukes and fossil fuel generation... duh!

e the above things and aren't going to have them it's a bit pointless ponti ficating about a scenario that is not reality.

We AREN'T going to have them??? Why? Did daddy say so?

WTF are you talking about? It is a fait accompli, a done deal, an inevitab le conclusion. The fact that PV solar is now cheaper than installing new f ossil fuel and nuclear capacity means it will continue to grow many fold. As that happens the demand for storage will also grow and prices of both wi ll continue to drop so the combination of the two will become the most econ omical energy source for much of the world.

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  Rick C. 

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nerators completely. In the end this will be not just cleaner, but cheaper than nuclear and fossil fuels.

not quite what he said, but nvm

it's neighbors. I know there are power lines to France, but the total capa city is still pretty small.

ight feel offended. Heck, I guess I shouldn't leave out the Danes and the Germans. We had a Dane come to our badminton for a while. The guy was gre at. He could play circles around us literally. I think his name as Jasper .

Why would we lay an undersea cable over twice as long to get to another cou ntry? France is nearer & France can connect to them.

NT

UK is interconnected to Netherlands and Belgium as well as France. Links to Norway and Denmark are under construction.

See for example

piglet

average power consumption, and enough energy storage - pumped hydro and bat teries are the current market leaders - you could rely on intermittent rene wable sources.

had lot of practice in tooling up to satisfy new demand.

t of not just building new capacity of other types, but below the cost of U SING existing fossil fuel generating capacity. The added cost of providing backup storage is steadily decreasing as well. It is just a matter of tim e until the two combined are competitive with other generating capacity. T he direction of the economic comparisons and the end result are not in disp ute. The only question is when.

costs would go up greatly.

Clearly the operators don't agree with you. You type of thinking seems to have produced a rather good mess in the UK energy system where nearly any p roblem brings down large sections of the grid there.

This was the problem in Australia that resulted in a 100 MW/129 MWh battery being installed. Not only was it deemed a good expenditure of money, it h as mostly been paid for by savings.

Currently there are plans for another 2300 MWh in 2020 and 1800 MWh to be a dded in 2021. Unlike nuclear these will be installed largely on schedule.

--

  Rick C. 

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generators completely. In the end this will be not just cleaner, but cheap er than nuclear and fossil fuels.

o it's neighbors. I know there are power lines to France, but the total ca pacity is still pretty small.

might feel offended. Heck, I guess I shouldn't leave out the Danes and th e Germans. We had a Dane come to our badminton for a while. The guy was g reat. He could play circles around us literally. I think his name as Jasp er.

ountry? France is nearer & France can connect to them.

Uh, maybe because that's the way redundancy works, by having redundancy?

--

  Rick C. 

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