Like a giant storm predicted that never happened. That sort of thing is common here.
Watch this as a loop.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing precision measurement jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
You seem to be referring to snow accumulation or perhaps precipitation rather than available water runoff for drought status. The problem is that the ground has been dry for so long, and the water table has dropped so much, that most of the precipitation sinks into the ground, rather than becoming runoff in streams, lakes, reservoirs, etc. For example, for the People's Republic of Santa Cruz CA, the precipitation is following the average contour line: but the runoff is at 33% of the average: From the standpoint of rain fall and snow accumulation, we're doing just fine. However, if the water district is reliant on surface water sources, there may be a problem. Officially, most of California is still having a drought:
Loch Lomond, the local reservoir, is currently at 88.4% capacity. To drain it further, it is being used as a water source for the City of Santa Cruz. The trick is to estimate the rainfall for the rest of the season so that we end up with 100% full going into summer. That's not easy:
-- Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
Five myths about weather forecasting
Get a 5-day forecast for any US zip code or city
How does ForecastAdvisor Calculate the Accuracy of Weather Forecasts? For temperature, a forecast is considered accurate if it's within
+/-3F of reality.Notice how some weather forecast sites were much better than others in these tables below:
Some details on forecasting:
Forecasting rain is a problem. It's usually possible to determine if it will rain or not, but rather difficult to determine how much rain will fall.
How Reliable are Weather Forecasts?
If all else fails, there's always The Old Farmer's Almanac:
-- Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com 150 Felker St #D http://www.LearnByDestroying.com Santa Cruz CA 95060 http://802.11junk.com Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558
Jeff, you are now the 'Link King' of SED. Congratulations! :-D
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302The Physics of Jet Stream MeanderingWalter E JanachMeggenhornstrasse 20, CH-6045 Meggen, SwitzerlandAbstractLarge-amplitude jet stream meanders inv olve diabatic processes because conser-vation of angular momentum leads to vortex line stretching and shrinking. Thisrequires latent heat release duri ng poleward ?ow in contrast to cooling by sub-limation and radiation during equatorward ?ow. Moisture and its distribution,together with aerosols, pla y a key role. The increase of anthopogenic aerosols inthe upper troposphere could be a cause for the more frequent large-amplitude jetstream meanders. Keywords Angular momentum, potential vorticity, latent heat, radiative cool ing,sublimation cooling, Rossby waves.1 IntroductionAs the jet stream ?ows from west to east, Rossby waves can form. Large merid-ional excursions of t he jet stream in form of meanders occur between alternatingwarm high-pressu re ridges extending
ced geostrophic ?ow of the jet stream is atright angle to the horizontal gr adient of the pressure ?eld, so that the resultinghorizontal pressure force is balanced by the horizontal component of the Coriolisforce. At the same time the angular momentum of air parcels in the ?ow remain-s constant in th e absolute system, which can be expressed by the conservationof potential v orticity. Angular momentum remains constant also during hori-zontal converg ence with vortex line expansion, visualized by a ballerina pullingher stret ched arms close to her body in order to accelerate the spinning rate,or dur ing horizontal divergence with vortex line shrinking. Potential vorticityP V =?g(?+f)??/?p is the sum of relative vorticity ?and planetary vorticity f(Coriolis parameter) times the di?erence ?? of potential temperature betw een thebottom and the top isobaric surfaces of an air parcel divided by the correspond-ing pressure
en the bottom and top of an air parcel increases during horizontal conver-g ence with vortex line stretching, while divergence lets the pressure di?ere nce ?pdecrease with vortex line shrinking."
t_Stream_Meandering
ccesses of modern meteorology. It is a simplified approach for understandin g fluid motions in a rotating system such as the Earth's atmosphere and oce an. Its development traces back to the circulation theorem by Bjerknes in 1
898,[1] which is a specialized form of Kelvin's circulation theorem. Starti ng from Hoskins et al., 1985,[2] PV has been more commonly used in operatio nal weather diagnosis such as tracing dynamics of air parcels and inverting for the full flow field. Even after detailed numerical weather forecasts o n finer scales were made possible by increases in computational power, the PV view is still used in academia and routine weather forecasts, shedding l ight on the synoptic scale features for forecasters and researchers.[3]"riticize these complicated weather models to predict the future course of g lobal warming. I don't see a damned one of them getting into the complicate d physics and fluid dynamics to explain the errors and thus demonstrate tha t the physics, which we do know for certain, confidently predicts planetary warming to be a non-issue.
John Larkin uses the phrase "our point" to summarise the denialist propagan da that he's too gullible to recognise as propaganda.
Weather is predictable, in the sense that you can predict how much rain is likely to fall, even if you can't predict exactly when, and climate is pred ictable enough that farming has worked since the end of the last ice age.
Anthropogenic global warming is in the process of messing that up a bit, bu t the people who make money out of digging up fossil carbon and selling it to be burnt as fuel think that it is worth ther while to spend some of thei r profits on denialist propaganda. Not enough to pay for convincing propaga nda, but enough to pay for the kind of propaganda that will convincing gull ible idiots like John Larkin.
Droughts come and go. It takes quite a lot of rain to undo the consequences of a long drought, and I can remember a UK drought which ended in very wet autumn, with the responsible minister going around making speeches about w ater conservation in pouring rain. He had to keep on doing it until the res ervoirs had pretty much filled up again, which took a while.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
A real debate would be OK. A discussion would be better. George H.
The kind of article isn't addressed to the likes of Cursitor Doom or John L arkin.
"Advances in Systems Science and Application (2015) Vol.15" isn't their ide a of bed-time reading. Stuff that's "trying to blind people with science" d oesn't get published in peer-reviewed journals - I've rejected some if it m yself.
The fact that Cursitor Doom can't understand what's being said doesn't make the article incomprehensible to more sophisticated readers, who do exist, even if they don't talk to Cursitor Doom or John Larkin.
The idea that global warming might be a giant scam is the kind of comfortin g delusion that Cursitor Doom shares with John Larkin. Sadly, it is a delus ion, even if neither of them is even going to learn enough to realise that they have been suckered by some rather contemptuous propaganda, squarely ai med at the particularly gullible.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
That's incompetence. Around Sydney you see controlled "fuel reduction burns" going on in late winter and early spring every year.
Why? California has regulations that require houses to be built to be earthquake resistant? Why hasn't it got regulations that require attention to fire risks?
The reports talk about a bark beetle infestation and 129 million dead trees, just waiting to be set on fire.
Wooden walls and floors are fuel enough.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
s
dels to inputs about which we have inexact information, like these atmosphe ric aerosol concentrations. And then things are complicated by circular int eractions between all these high sensitivity inputs and outputs.
To people who don't know how to use them.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
A claim like this cannot be right; it can't even be wrong. Date and location of the prediction? Specifics that CAN be checked, in principle, would be a respectable answer.
We know your technical ability is low; certainly you would be flummoxed by John Larkin's voltage 10V/9k/1k question...
You, CD, started a thread asking how people approached the "problem" of using a high impedance DMM to make measurements where the manual specified using an Avo8 meter.
"Anyone come up with a solution to the problem of making voltage readings on high impedance parts of a circuit with a meter of a different Zin to that used by the people who wrote the service manual?"
And couldn't figure out that you could add a resistor across the DMM!
On Sun, 19 Aug 2018 19:09:10 +0000, Rob wrote: > Cursitor Doom wrote: >> On Sun, 19 Aug 2018 11:28:10 -0700, mike wrote: >> >>> What's so hard about putting a resistor in parallel with your meter? >> >> Never even occurred to me. > > That's what you get when people lack basic understanding of the matter.
I've only recently discovered that I invariably overlook simpler solutions. Fortunately I'm only a hobbyist and don't do this for a living!
The main problem with this statistic is reservoir water is not accessible t o all the forests and other natural areas. This is where all the environmen tal destruction is occurring. Except for a few desert species, most of the forest flora requires water that's fairly evenly distributed over time. And this is probably more true now more than ever as the transpiration rates a re in overdrive at elevated/ above normal temperatures.
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