Gmail posters?

Are they all daft or what? What (TF) has Google done to us?

martin

What has google done with its groups too ?

Seems to have lost the plot.

Graham

I noticed that many of the really dumb messages that could easily be answered by a quick Google come from people wth Gmail accounts.

martin

And whats wrong with gmail?

Although I'd agree that the new google groups interface is retarded :(

Al

Don't you think your exagerating just a little? With a P/E of ~114, perhaps it worth a *little*, perhaps an order of magnitude, more than $10? At least GOOG is making money, unlike most of the dot_bombers.

--
  Keith

Make us wealthy on selling the stock - and soon even rich buying put's on the stock.

Google is a 10 dollar paper once the hype dies; and it will. The question on when is really about how many propellerheads still have money left to waste on the stock.

Even at $20, that's a P/E of ~8. That's nuttin' these days. $50 would be a "normal" number (P/E = 20) for a stable stock with no big up-side. ...of course, no great chances for a down-side either.

It can also go to $300. ;-)

Well... I remember when I was given (read: force-fed) some malarky about our company becomming something like 2% of the GNP by 1990, though it wasn't compared to the GNP (engineers tend to do reality checks on marketeers ;).

The poor play the lottery. The rich play GOOG? I guess I'm in the middle. ;-)

It *is* making money. $700M, according to my envelope.

MJ is a tad in the read ($260M last I heard). ..or are you saying that GOOG is a nutso pedophile? ;-)

That's why people play 00. The superfecta on the Kentucky Derby paid

864,253.5:1.

We? You're the one predicting doom. Your dice!

Ok, a P/E of 30-60 is, uh, about $70 to $140/share, not $10. ...pretty much the order of magnitude I was suggesting. ;-)

BTW, I tend to agree with you. I didn't touch GOOG when it was under $100. Then again, my brother made a few $M off INTC and M$ in the '90s, that I didn't.

--
  Keith

Perhaps 20 then, base 10 is a bit too rich ;-)

The market value of GOOG is USD 77,000,000,000--, in return for assuming that risk was earned USD 399,119,000 or about 0.5%. For about Zero risk 2% can be earned in bonds/money markets, so the share price should logically be at least 4 times lower - probably more because stock is much more risky; it can go to zero.

So, really, all what keeps the price up is the investors expectations of a golden future where unlimited exponential earnings growth will ensure that hardnosed & patient GOOG investors will be holding a sizeable portion of the US GDP in a decades time.

The investors can almost see themselves living in a venetian-style palazzo, the hard part of the day being deciding which colour porche will go with todays dinner suit before going out and grab some babes at the casino. Hundreds of USD for a stock that will *guarantee* a life of leisure is damn cheap, Thousands is maybe more reasonable. Dreams are priceless.

*When* GOOG eventually misses analysts expectations one sorry quarter, disaster strikes: the palazzo burns and the porsche collection chrashes. Maybe even Margin Calls. The stock instantly becomes mere thrash, unworthy of tainting any portfolio except for the most foolish, stupid people. The put's become solid Gold.

It's not making money that truly matters in the stock pricing game. It's making expectations!

Look what happened to Michael Jackson: deemed a failure for not being able to beat his 50 million record year ... only 30 Million sold, the entire business go: "Pah, Pathetic Looser" ;-/

Eventually, investors expectations are raised to make failure inevitable - all the while, the bet on failure becomes better and better for every success. The bet also becomes a lot cheaper, so the odds improve, because "past history shows than ... 90% of all option trades lost money", as they will repeatedly say on Yahoo web TeeVee (conveniently forgetting that 1% of the winning trades paid about 1000 times the risk) .

So, do we know which quarter?

No, but I do know that I can afford to loose *a lot* of smallish bets on the accounts with all the cash made by that one, winning, quarter where the stock falls with maybe a cool 30% instantly kicking volativity way up and then shorting the stock to follow it all the way down to the P/E of a normal business (which right now would be around 30-60 for the stock).