Electronic components aging

I don't suppose that those systems are still running without having had some maintenance (board swaps, repairs etc). Would you wish to guarantee that any system you design today will still be operating that far in the future.

I don't know where your utilities are based but I am certain that the ones near me have all upgraded their systems over the years (just to cope with demands).

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What's the mechanism of that, residual sodium (or etc.) ions??? Hot carriers don't just go loitering in pure silicon...

Tim

--
Seven Transistor Labs 
Electrical Engineering Consultation 
Website: http://seventransistorlabs.com

Yes, but I suspect each of those systems are actively *maintained*. I.e., *AS* parts of them fail, they are repaired and replaced. This is very different than a "hands off" approach (e.g., deep space probe that can't be "serviced" after its launch).

There are lots of things you can do to improve reliability, probabilistically -- not sure how *deterministic* those efforts would be, though! E.g., entering an electronically controlled "stasis pod" and HOPING you've done the engineering right! (then, again, if you *didn't*, YOU sure will never know! :> )

But, a lot of that is predicated on having some idea as to usage patterns, extremes, etc. E.g., how you select a battery/charger for a cell phone is very different than for a power tool or a UPS.

[As an aside, what gives with the pricing on NiMH AAA cells? It seems like ~$3/ea is the going rate. Sheesh! Cheaper to buy a boatload of alkalines...]

Look, for example, at WE's designs for subscriber end devices (where the sheer NUMBER and physical distribution made upgrades/replacements virtually impossible!). Contrast that with their (still robust!) designs for CO equipment (costlier but far easier to replace than the subscriber end)

I've had occasion to design high volume, long service life, high repair/replace cost devices and it's REALLY a completely different world! Something like 10 years is relatively easy. When you start talking 30 or more years, you start actively gauging whether or not you could, perhaps, be "gone" and NOT have to worry/know if you've screwed up! :>

They've been replacing natural gas lines throughout the neighborhood and certain parts of town. Years ago, they started replacing the individual "service drops" for each residence (interesting process!). Then, last year, started replacing (and upgrading) the "mains" that feed the neighborhood (even *more* interesting process!).

The former was part of a regular upgrade process -- original lines were ~30 years old.

It's unclear if the latter was also part of "scheduled maintenance" or, instead, reflected a city-wide gas shortage a couple of winters ago (simply didn't have enough distribution capacity to cope with an unusually cold spell and ended up having to turn off the supplies to parts of the city so that other parts of the city had ample pressure).

Interesting situation to find yourself without *gas*. Electricity you aren't terribly surprised to find it "out" (though rare, here). Losing water tends to raise eyebrows as it is REALLY rare. Gas even more so! The only utility (interesting observation, this!) that you *never* expect to lose is *phone* (land line).

[Having lost it, once -- nearby lightning strike fried the electronic phones on our service -- it was really unnerving. You just NEVER expect to lift the handset and NOT get dialtone! Gotta wonder how many 9's in *their* availability figures! :> ]

NYC just finished the replacement for the 1917 aqueduct. Big job.

We've never had the gas or the water go out, but as far as phones go, you live a very sheltered life. We finally bailed on POTS, despite the very great theoretical advantages of central-office power, because the Verizon people we had to deal with were so uniformly incompetent.

Getting anything changed, or trying to get them to grasp the concept of starting a home business and then moving to commercial space, took several phone calls and at least a few hours of pain per time. They apparently had no method whatsoever for having one person understand what the actual task or problem was, or even for making notes. It all had to be rehashed again each phone call, to a not-very-motivated and not-very-bright listener. I suppose that nobody who could find another job would work there. (At one point we did find one guy who actually cared, and knew how to get things done, but he worked on the other side of their Chinese wall between commercial and residential accounts.)

I eventually concluded that an organization that incompetent couldn't really be relied upon to look after their central office batteries either. So we eventually changed to cable, and keep spare batteries for our cell phones.

The Verizon sales reps call at the office a couple of times a year to ask me to switch to their service, and they're always confused when I burst out laughing.

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--
Dr Philip C D Hobbs 
Principal Consultant 
ElectroOptical Innovations LLC 
Optics, Electro-optics, Photonics, Analog Electronics 

160 North State Road #203 
Briarcliff Manor NY 10510 USA 
+1 845 480 2058 

hobbs at electrooptical dot net 
http://electrooptical.net

I've lived in 5 different states and never had a phone issue aside from the lightning strike (in Colorado). I had a flakey connection in Chicagoland, once -- but traced it to a length of cable that had fallen on the exhaust plenum for the gas furnace (the wire was nice and toasty-crunchy! :> ). Lots of *noise* on this (below grade) line in the days when I used a modem -- but that was traced to water migration in the buried cable.

In each case (save the Colorado one), I was still able to make and receive calls on the line.

As to the competence of the folks we have had to deal with "in the sales office", that's another story. Took us *6* calls to get our DSL disconnected. And, in the process, they managed to disconnect our *phone* as well! (the 6th call was to get phone service restored).

Always nice to see the "this phone call may be recorded for quality purposes" come back to bite them in the ass, later! :>

So, you've never actually LOST dialtone?

Neighbors routinely lose their cable service. I wouldn't rely on it for a "reliable" connection. A friend was recently spooked when she was having "chest pains" and found her cell phone unreliable -- and no "land line" alternative available!

And, we don't use cell phones (why have to own *two* phone services just to protect against *one* -- or both! -- being unavailable?) In some areas, TPC is replacing copper "land line" circuits with wireless. Wanna bet they don't give the same availability levels??

You might find the folks who do the actual plant maintenance are of a different caliber than the sales droid/order takers (which, at least here, are located in another *state*!).

E.g., when I was having line noise problems, the tech that came out to check the line initially saw "good numbers" and was puzzled at the complaints I was making (I sat outside with him while he was checking the line). He sat and watched the line for perhaps 15 minutes before the noise floor shot up dramatically: "Holy cow! Can you even *talk* on that line??" (Yes, but a 56K modem can't!)

Of course, the only solution he had was to switch us to a different pair...

Welcome to the wonderful world of unions! You can't fire them, you can't discipline them, all you can do is put them in a job where they can't cause too much damage... :-(

Actually, CO's usually have very good maintanance. They have 'routines' that need to be performed every so often on a schedule, that are then verified on a similiar schedule. A lot of things are also automated, but most important, the jobs are 'interesting' so the tech's usually care a bit about how things go...

All this stuff will die fairly quickly (days) if there is a severe problem. If that ever happens, those folks affected are going to be in a world of hurt. Once the water supply fails, the wastewater treatment won't be far behind because it depends on a continous flow of water. This might be the real threat of EMP and the weapons (carbon filaments, smart bombs) that destroy electrical and water treatment systems- by taking out utilities over a wide area, people will start to die within weeks and they'll be in no mood to do anything but try to keep themselves alive.

I've never seen an unexpected loss of natural gas or water pressure (i.e. not due to scheduled repairs or maintenance). I imagine a water main bursting would result in a loss of pressure to some homes and businesses. Not paying bills might result in a sudden loss of gas pressure. ;-)

The last little bit of phone line is more prone to problems, IME. POTS must be 100-1000x more reliable than internet based services. OTOH, we have many options to POTS these days, so a single point failure isn't devastating.

We had water cut off for two weeks... floods inundated the regional waterworks, located close to the river of course. Contaminating the water treatment tanks with raw sewage.

Yummy!

[...]

--

John Devereux

I'm curious as to how resilient our muni water supply is. As most of it is derived from wells scattered around the city, a *local* outage typically takes out just one or two wells (e.g., there is a well three blocks from here). Presumably, the areas immediately serviced by the "local well" can tap into excess supply in the system -- though probably at reduced pressure in that local area (I don't think the mains *into* an area are sized to truly support the needs of that area; rather, to support the *surplus* water SOURCED from that area!)

As we have no real "surface water" to speak of (there are a few spots for folks who are willing to think *hard* about this), I suspect a city-wide outage would leave us *all* without water.

(It's possible there is a dedicated backup line for each well pump but I can't say for sure)

People expect others to take care of them. Amazing how UNprepared (not UNDERprepared but UNprepared!) people are, in general. As if "it can't happen here". :< Folks are puzzled when they see lights on in our house while *they* are experiencing a power outage...

I suspect when something dramatic happens, most folks will pile into their cars and try to go in the hope that will take care of them, there! :>

(A friend is responsible for much of the state's disaster preparedness. Each time we visit, I try to pick his brain a wee bit more for clues as to what "they" think will happen -- not that I put much stock in their assessments! :-/ )

Water mains seem to break with some regularity regardless of where I've lived. Or, get "excavated" unintentionally ("Oooops!").

I've seen gas lines "dug up" twice in this neighborhood -- once by a neighbor using a mini back hoe to install a new electric service and playing too fast-and-loose with the "shared trench" that ALL his services were routed through; another time when a construction crew snagged the main on the other side of the neighborhood (and frantically worked to obscure the Blue Stake markings so they could claim the gas line wasn't marked! :> ). But, in each of those cases, the supply to the neighborhood wasn't in jeopardy (electric and gas services are "multiple feed", here -- not sure about other utilities -- so even snagging a main just means that portion of

*that* main has to be pinched off)

But they also rely on power, etc. I think a cell tower has ~5 hours of backup capacity? And, if there's an outage in a part of town, then *all* the towers in that part of town "go silent" (eventually).

Consider the 9/11 experience, Katrina, etc. and how well we fared. Interesting to consider how technology could be EFFECTIVELY deployed in those scenarios.

E.g., a group I was affiliated with proposed creating "doctor-in-a-can". Essentially, a doctor's examination room in one of those full sized storage containers. Examination table, X-ray, autoclave, generator, water supply/purification, "supplies", etc. The thinking being you can put one on a truck and get them to a disaster area within hours and "ship" the doctor from a third location. More durable than a "tent" and able to carry the heavy supplies that would be accessories in a "tent solution" (e.g., large supply of water, propane, etc.)

I've mused over how to make phone service available to neighborhoods while somehow constraining traffic (i.e., a portable cell tower seems the ideal solution -- except "Gabby" will get on the line and just yack away as soon as she gets through. Any solution that silently rations service will result in folks spending hours just trying to make a call!)

About 15 years ago I called to report line problems. I was having to scream to be heard over the noise. The woman had the balls to ask, "What's the problem"?

I have intermittent noise and hum on my phone line now. The wiring is all new in the house, and I've used several different phones. I've seen the line drop to four volts, with the phone on the hook. This has been going on for two years. They have switched pairs, moved my number to a different SLIC at their fiber to copper terminal a mile away and the problem keeps coming back.

--
Anyone wanting to run for any political office in the US should have to 
have a DD214, and a honorable discharge.

It's a much different problem to come up with ways to rapidly deploy high-intensity relief to a limited area compared to dealing with a lower intensity (but long-term serious) problem covering a wide-spread area involving millions or tens of millions of people. We have information on what that looks like (say Iraq in mid-2003) but there is little first-hand experience of it in North America or most of Europe. Military-style logistics (and admininstration) would probably be required. How is grain going to get from storage to 1,000,000 people if several of the intermediate steps are "broken"? Most people have enough food to last only days or maybe a week or two.

Sounds interesting. They could be stockpiled in strategic locations and deployed quickly.

Too bad cell phones don't have a mesh net function!

Yup. But the two tend to go hand in hand -- the short term "acute" problem followed by the longer term "chronic" problem. *Before* people realize they're screwed, they grasp for the amenities that they have become accustomed to (i.e., "why can't I make a phone call?") Once that initial "event" has been absorbed, then they worry about survival. Once *that* looks like it is addressed (however well or poorly), they find themselves bored and wanting some of those amenities, again ("There's nothing on TV", "My phone doesn't work", etc.)

I suspect Iraqis were better able to cope than Americans would be! Too big a hit to their standard of living coupled with a general lack of self-reliance.

I don't think most people can make a full week. And, would probably be distressed that they couldn't eat *what* they wanted ("Chicken AGAIN??").

Lots of LDS'ers, here. Presumably, part of their religious practices includes preparing for the end of days -- stockpiling food, etc. (I think supposed to have 1 year of food on hand. This is "policed" to varying degrees, apparently!).

The tongue-in-cheek reply when confronted with the "what would you do in the event of a prolonged national disaster" is: "find an LDS family"!

I think the more realistic (and probable!) problem is a short term disturbance. Say 3 to 7 days in duration. Of course, you wouldn't necessarily know how long this was going to be at the onset. But, I see most folks would immediately step to the "evacuate" or "plunder" response.

(We have BoB's prepared for shelter-in-place, drive-out, and hike-out scenarios. In the last case, having the bags packed so we can quickly shed supplies/weight if only one of us is able to carry any load. I'm sure none of our neighbors have even considered these possibilities! E.g., CB radio, handhelds, flint, first aid, clothing, maps, radio, solar/mechanical chargers, inverters, meds, etc.)

Exactly. Similar to the way rapid response meds/agents are stockpiled locally. If *all* you have to do is "say go", its a lot easier to get this sort of aid to a location than if you had to round up all the supplies, arrange shipping, find a contact person on the other end, etc.

("Put this on the truck. Start driving to Feenigs. We'll call you with the final destination and your contact person before you get there.")

The problem with cell phones is people think of them as "theirs". I suspect people would be unwilling to allow their phone to be used as a relay -- unless they were actively talking on it! I think this would be exaggerated in the event that power was in short supply and folks tried to economize on their battery life!

I originally thought a suitcase into which cheap *wired* phones (handsets) could be connected. That way, someone could oversee fair use of the resource. And, allow people to "register" themselves at a particular "suitcase" so folks could relay messages back to them at that suitcase (check in tomorrow to see if you have any messages waiting). Power it off a car battery (*any* car) while still *in* the car.

The more realistic solution is to allow cell phones to connect to this suitcase. But, then you need some way of rationing the service so folks don't just treat it like "normal" telephony.

You would also find yourself inundated with requests for folks to "charge their cell phone battery". This goes away if *you* provide the handset...

It's an interesting problem. But, not one that *I* have to address!

I have nothing to add to the list, but this subject remind me of this old "electronics glow"

All of Des Moines Iowa had water shut off in 1993 because flood water overtook the water treatment facilities. Emergency broadcasts told people to fill water containers in the last hour of water service. Then it was shut off. Early reports were that it would be undrinkable for THREE or FOUR months, but Army Corps of Engineers helped with a process called shock chlorination. Megadose of chlorine made the water OK for flushing toilets and not much else, then eventually it was suitable for showers and washing hands, and eventually it was back to being approved for drinking within only one month of the flood shutdown. I assume that gas/electric and some telephone land lines went down in areas inundated with water. In Cedar Rapids Iowa in 2008 the flood didn't quite shut down the water plant though they had to shut off some of the wells and had a reduced capacity. Before the water came up, the gas company ran around in the areas projected to be flooded (500 year flood plain) removed every gas meter and capped the pipes. Electrical utility pulled the meters, shutting off power in those areas also. Pulling that many power and gas meters must have been a bizarre job. Some people were angry about electricity being shut down since they were running pumps to pump out their basement. Ironically, pumping out your basement backfires disastrously, causing basement walls to be forced in (collapsed) by force of water outside in the soil. Letting the basement fill with water counteracts the outside water pressure that collapses basement walls. Collapsed foundations/basement walls was the most common thing that made the difference between a home being repairable or not, for cost reasons.

BTDT (feb 22 2011)

If the roads are still working water (for drinking etc) can be trucked in (in tankers) and distributed by hand.

I've heard of two events close enough to make the news, but never been effected. no gas here.

I've had the phone go out 5 times and the ADSL go out three times, ADSL will still work on a shorted pair.

--
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Not if you include carbon film or carbon composition; with any HV applied, the corrosion of C into CO or CO2 is a killer. The screen resistors on old TVs (had about 2-4 kV on them) were notorious for failing open. The E-field around the component would attract any ions (like, from ozone).

Maybe, maybe not; there are solid-electrolyte electrolytics that have very good aging (and the old MIL tantalum/silver things have a reliable chemistry).

Alas, breakdown voltage of bipolar transistors goes down (and frequency of operation goes UP) with age. Some diodes (LEDs) have surface-related contamination issues, there's lots of complaints about rotary encoders that result from them going dim with time.

Cosmic rays can kill a MOS oxide, there were also faults due to natural radioactivity in ceramic RAM packages. Not to mention, there's ICs using stored charge in little floating capacitors to trim thresholds, those stored charges WILL leak.

The silver-cased wet-slugs tended to corrode from the inside. I think the dry tantalums were pretty good.

Wet aluminum electros diffuse out water and dry up. Polymer aluminums diffuse *in* water and fail.

Can't win!

Intersil makes voltage references that are essentially charged floating capacitors with follower opamps. They would make good radiation detectors.

--

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

jlarkin at highlandtechnology dot com 
http://www.highlandtechnology.com 

Precision electronic instrumentation 
Picosecond-resolution Digital Delay and Pulse generators 
Custom laser drivers and controllers 
Photonics and fiberoptic TTL data links 
VME thermocouple, LVDT, synchro   acquisition and simulation

will

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Here we get into some of the interesting parts. They do not replace working gear without a really good reason. Particularly if it involves major investment in compatible equipment in some way. Face it, rebuilding refineries and such is very expensive. And generally not done even piecemeal.

?-)