In , snipped-for-privacy@ieee.org wrote:
I expect sea level changes to be mere millimeters per year until we get enough warming to actually do major damage to Greenland's ice sheet.
I suspect that the upward bounce that I expect after 2030-2035 or so to about 2070 or so to fall short of accomplishing such. It appears to me that global surface temperature as high as 3 degrees C above 1951-1980 or 1961-1990 average may not do only minor damage to Greenland's and Antarctica's ice sheets. What I see being the problem is if we get any warmer - it appears to me that 4 degree C warming that was peak of the interglacial period before the current one accomplished serious melting of Greenland's ice sheet. If we burn enough fossil fuels to get atmospheric CO2 to what it was before our fossil fuels were formed or maybe even so much as past 800 ppmv or so (maybe needing as much as 1200 ppmv), we could achieve 7-8 degree C warming that would melt down the ice sheets of both Greenland and Antarctica. That would force people and businesses in currently-coastal areas to move about 200 meters uphill, and land area above water to decrease quite a few percent.
As for methane claptrates - I suspect we will end up minimg them for fuel use when natural gas supply dwindles enough to spike the price up bigtime. Sounds to me like more CO2 rather than "clathrate gun" - but it appears to me that humans will more than avert the next ice age and end up melting at least Greenland's ice sheet and force many millions of people and a lot of industry to move about 7 meters uphill. And should there be much time with Greenland being green all over and the Arctic losing most of its year-round ice cover while Antarctica is ice-covered, watch out for weather zones shifting a hundred or two km northward, maybe more in "The Americas", and more-northern nations having a lot of land too cold to farm to become greater agricultural powers. USA will need "American Ingenuity" continuing to exist with likely precipitation pattern shifts that will probably disfavor a lot of American land that is "a little north of subtropical". Many Americans will also have to cut back watering their lawns - I hope some American breeds a strain of lawn grass that stays green when things go semi-arid. (It appears to me that in the past several decades almost half of Augusts in Philadelphia have almost or over half their rainfall in a single stretch of 8 hours or less, and July and September are only a little better than August with distribution-over-the-month of monthly rainfall in/around Philadelphia. I doubt global warming would improve this situation!)
- Don Klipstein ( snipped-for-privacy@misty.com)