Irma sustained winds exceed 3-second gust design limit Florida buildings

The west coast of Florida was at the center of the predictions two daya ago (about when it hit Cuba), which is OK for most purposes. Don't want to evacuate EVERYONE for hundreds of miles, every time a blow comes up.

Hurricane danger is pretty well known in decade timescales (to support insurance, city panning and backup generators/water stocks), and on days timescales (computers and satellite observations, among other things). No particular reason we need monthly or weekly timescales covered.

When Mt. St. Helens blew, there were predictions on the 'within a century or two' timescale from geologic and historic observations, and predictions on the 'within a few months' from seismic observations of magma movement, but no one knew on the days scale. When the big blow came up, there was about an hours' time when you could rush away from the eruption and hope to beat the ash cloud, but no real pre-warning.

So, you use the months-time-scale information, and evacuate the 'red zone', then warn and post alarms in the surrounding area, and put the Guard on alert. Dixy Lee Ray kinda had it right.

Hurricanes, on the other hand, you get lots of useful timescales covered by the forecaster techniques. No problem with the computers at all.

Reply to
whit3rd
Loading thread data ...

It's following the _often_updated_ European model, perhaps.

Reply to
krw

"But our models are better now."

Reply to
krw

Really? You want to untangle that mess? When message do you want a date for?

--

Rick C 

Viewed the eclipse at Wintercrest Farms, 
on the centerline of totality since 1998
Reply to
rickman

John Larkin wrote on 9/10/2017 11:18 AM:

Two weeks ago??? You are aware they update hurricane reports multiple times each day, right? Maybe you need a bigger brain? No, if you don't use it, the size doesn't matter.

--

Rick C 

Viewed the eclipse at Wintercrest Farms, 
on the centerline of totality since 1998
Reply to
rickman

The one where I said it wasn't going to turn north. You're talking way back when Irma was 800 miles out and a north turn would have put it on track for east coast.

Reply to
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred

Go back and reread what I wrote about the confusion. You are still confused about it.

--

Rick C 

Viewed the eclipse at Wintercrest Farms, 
on the centerline of totality since 1998
Reply to
rickman

ElectronDepot website is not affiliated with any of the manufacturers or service providers discussed here. All logos and trade names are the property of their respective owners.