OK, the next-generation parts at both application grades from both manufacturers are now announced. I've not been around for long enough to know how long to expect between announcement and availability at the hobbyist level; is Christmas 2005 for Cyclone II (announced today) dev boards reasonable?
It's nice to see reasonably serious levels of DSP appearing at the low-end parts, though I'm a little disappointed that we're not seeing seas of floating-point units in the high end, even in the Virtex 4SX; those can be so much smaller as macrocells than built out of logic.
What _is_ the business about "maximum toggle frequency 500MHz (for export control)" in the Spartan3 datasheet?
I was contemplating real-time fractal generators, and it's not clear that a 4+50 x 4+50 -> 4+50 fixed-point triple-precision multiplier built in a Spartan 3 would be price-competitive with small piles of PCs; rough summing of propagation delays suggest you can get three, with 10-15ns propagation, into an XC3S1000. Which is 200-300Mflops, and with small-volume costs and board-building charges I don't see I could get the price below the $100 required to compete on price/performance with Athlon64.
Whatever happens, these will be wonderful things to play with; many thanks to everybody involved in bringing on the Era of Programmable Hardware!
Tom