"Peak oil" has been predicted for about a century by now. It hasn't happened. We keep finding more oil, coal, and gas. The peaks are hundreds of years out.
Some experts are expecting $60 a barrel next year. Some are predicting $40. The US, especially the Rust Belt, is seeing an economic resurgence driven by cheap energy. Europe isn't.
Nice planet, Earth. All those goodies, left for us to find and use. That's another subject.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing laser drivers and controllers jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
This is a temporary phenomenon while the House of Saud has some sort of temper fit.
The last time this happened, we ended up with the Savings and Loan Crisis. Something similar could happen. A very rapid drop in oil prices tends to be deflationary.
That is bad.
Number 10 here is especially pertinent:
"Issue 10. The drop in oil prices seems to reflect a basic underlying problem: the world is reaching the limits of its debt expansion."
A good old debt crisis now is not what we want, folks.
-- Les Cargill
Apparently oil production peaked in 2010.
But not as fast as we used, and it's all deeper and harder to extract than it used to be.
Dream on. If you were better-informed, you'd have noticed that it had already happened.
The free market is displaying it's enthusiasm for short term instability
- don't confuse the gyrations with a long term trend.
Obama managed to stick with Keynesian deficit-funded pump-priming - qualitative easing - for long enough to get results.
Europe is stuck with the Euro, and a bunch of central bankers who are scared silly of inflation and turned off the pump-priming a little too early. "Austerity" was always a silly idea for an economy not growing as fast as it should, but bankers are silly.
Right - catch all the cod, until there aren't any more left to catch.
Burn all the fossil carbon and bump up the greenhouse effect until the place looks like Venus.
Some of those "goodies" are tests of insight and self-restraint. We are in the process of failing one of those tests. We are already driving lots of species to extinction - we fail the test when we drive ourselves to extinction.
Where you get your usual failing grade.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
In other words you don't like the ideas presented, but can't construct a counter argument - probably because I'm right, and whenever you try to construct one of your counter-arguments, you find yourself stuck with a fallacy at the core of your response.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
In the UK, when I lived there, the average was seven years.
Because, in the UK, if your house isn't connected to the grid, it's because it is a long way out of town, and the grid connection charge - for laying the cables - is large. There's no doubt that grid electricity is more convenient than pv (which you've got to back up with your own battery bank and almost certainly a domestic motor-generator.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
power
A lot depends on how big you want to have. At the small end there are Honda and other construction equipment vendors, for medium and up add Generac, Leibert and Kohler. Search engines are your friends.
?-)
What sort of temperature gradient across the well?
Not gonna happen. I'm pretty sure I've replaced my last hot water heater! :>
My point was the lack of foresight for this sort of thing reflects the observation that people just "don't bother" with it!
It's a 6 ton (72,000 BTU) system. A 30 degree F change in air temp causes about a 4-6 degree F change in water temp, depending on various conditions, at about 18 GPM water flow. Full power is an 8 degree step, and the system varies the airflow to maintain the outgoing air temperature.
Also, if the water temp gets too close to freezing, the system dumps 10% of the water flow downhill of the house, forcing the well to draw in warmer water from the surrounding aquifer. The setup was designed by a local company to handle the cold New England winters.
In the summer, the same well provides water for the automatic lawn sprinklers too, so there's even more turnover in the well.
Fracking, and not some systemic economic issue, has caused the oil price drop. The price of unrelated stuff isn't dropping, except maybe imports caused by the strong dollar.
Efficiency can always be declared to be deflationary. That's the Luddite concept.
The Saudis are hoping to destroy our incentive to frack, and that works to the extent that equilibrium oil prices go low and stay that way. At $40 a barrel, we'll just leave it in the ground for a while, till the prices recover some.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing laser drivers and controllers jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
So what are the numbers for world oil production in 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013? You made the assernion, so it is up to you to back up your statements or admit you made up the numbers.
Dan
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Fracking is more expensive than conventional oil extraction - it's not a "m ore efficient" way of extracting oil. You have to expend more money and eff ort per unit oil. Because the more easily extracted oil has been extracted, fracking becomes more attractive, but it's not "efficient".
Of course the CO2 level in the atmosphere will keep on rising in the meanti me, and the US balance of payments deficit will keep on going up, but right
-wing nitwits can't understand the significance of either problem - and won 't until the problems create obvious side-effects that have to be dealt wit h immediately.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
P.S. Do not use this url for your numbers.
Dan
nd 2013?
admit you made up the numbers.
Here are the US values for the world numbers
They now show a small rise between 2010 and 2011 - from 87,578,600 barrels per day to 87,869,700 per day. When the newspapers picked up on this a few years ago, not all of the data was in and the data that was in showed a sma ll fall.
It got enough publicity at the time to lodge in my memory - something that I thought that I knew that wasn't so. I didn't make up any numbers but rath er just quoted invalid information that I'd remembered correctly. There was certainly a drop in crude oil production from wells from about 2008 to 201
1but that's probably the GFC.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
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s per day to 87,869,700 per day. When the newspapers picked up on this a fe w years ago, not all of the data was in and the data that was in showed a s mall fall.
t I thought that I knew that wasn't so. I didn't make up any numbers but ra ther just quoted invalid information that I'd remembered correctly. There w as certainly a drop in crude oil production from wells from about 2008 to 2
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I was pretty sure the world was using more oil, but when I first looked I d id not find any data after 2010. It is not easy to find some information, a nd the newspapers are not always very accurate.
I did not really think you had made up data, but did think you were using inaccurate data.
Dan
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els per day to 87,869,700 per day. When the newspapers picked up on this a few years ago, not all of the data was in and the data that was in showed a small fall.
hat I thought that I knew that wasn't so. I didn't make up any numbers but rather just quoted invalid information that I'd remembered correctly. There was certainly a drop in crude oil production from wells from about 2008 to 2011
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did not find any data after 2010. It is not easy to find some information, and the newspapers are not always very accurate.
So why say so?
It happens all the time - all data is to some extent inaccurate. Sadly, my data was not only inaccurate, but also misleading, which is a much worse fa ult.
The "peak oil" debate is a bit silly. There's always going to be some more oil in the ground, somewhere, but it's always going to be more expensive an d difficult to dig out, so the size of anybody's oil reserves always depend s on price they expect to get for the oil when they do dig it out.
There's loads of tin in Tasmania, but not in accessible deposits. For a whi le, a rise in the tin price would get the tin mines in Tasmania running aga in, but eventually the local miners realised that there were enough margina l tin mines around the world where the ore was more accessible than it was in Tasmania that the tin price was never going to stay high long enough to keep them in business.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Not necessarily. Check out the following.:
First, demand rolled off and never recovered after the 2008 recession. Second, fracking has had *some* effect in terms of transportation fuel, although there's a significant refinery bottleneck.
The price of unrelated stuff isn't dropping, except maybe
Fracking is more about shale oil and gas, neither of which are particularly competitive with Saudi oil. Keragen costs much more to refine, and we're not exactly adding refinery capacity.
Gas can be; people can turn old East Coast oil burners into gas burners, but it takes running the pipes and all that. The NRE is pretty high.
Continued declines in oil prices can bend things more towards deflation. It won't be a primary cause, but it all adds up. And again - the first move in the Savings and Loan crisis was the big drop in oil price.
Cheap oil isn't an efficiency. Using more oil can pretty much not be "efficient". And the existing regime, in which less is used regardless there's no reason to expect demand to actually respond.
It's a modest crutch. It does help out people who have low incomes, but at a long-term cost in actual efficiency.
Assuming there's anybody in the oil business left after the price goes back to an untampered-with equilibrium. I was in Oklahoma in 1983; the result is that oil companies are populated with a lot of older workers - people at retirement age now.
-- Les Cargill
"Issue 10. The drop in oil prices seems to reflect a basic underlying
Fracking *IS* conventional oil extraction. It's been used since the 1940s.
It's been priced into production costs for a very long time now. The media have just made it a curse word. energy inputs into fracking have gone down over the last 10-20 years. Not by a whole lot, but respectably so.
>-- Les Cargill
Demand for petroleum in the US has leveled off.
-- Les Cargill
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