Nevada: final dash

And there will be no further updates today - wonder why?

The odd makers will know tonight, but we have to wait until the morning.

The "odd makers" or the "odds makers?"

Yes, odds makers. Giving us the final chance to bet on it.

Because workers need to eat and sleep? Or maybe because the ballot fairy needs another night to punch some hanging chads.

Wonder why? Really???

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  Rick C. 

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Who knows? That announcement was made this afternoon.

Here is some interesting info. As we all know, thanks to Trump the mail in votes are largely Democratic. All of the uncounted votes are mail in, so Biden's numbers rise as more votes are counted. Nevada is pretty much a sl am dunk because of this, but also because the rural counties where he polls poorly have fewer outstanding votes by a large margin. Heck Clark county where Biden does very well is over half the state's votes so far. Hard to imagine there is a way for Trump to win there. Biden only needs to get 49% of the remaining votes to win and will likely get many more.

More interesting is that the same effect applies in all three of the remain ing uncalled states, PA, NC and GA. If you do the math of the outstanding votes and the current spread it turns out in each state if Biden gets 62% o f the outstanding votes, he will carry that state. If he gets 61% he will lose. Given the way the mail in ballots are shaping up we may very well se e Biden take all the remaining states and win the election 321 to 217, a mu ch larger margin than Trump won by in 2016! According to Trump that consti tutes a landslide!!!

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  Rick C. 

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Trump just slipped by 12,000 votes since this morning. They added 20,000 to the count. 4,000 for Trump and 16,000 for the Biden. Among other things th is means the proportion of mail-ins for Biden is 16/20 = 80%, which agree s with election official observations of it being roughly 75%. The longer t he election counts linger, the more the totals drift to Biden. They still h ave plenty more ballots to count. Biden will take Nevada by 100,000 votes t he way things are going. Looks like there's a good chance Biden will take G eorgia and Pennsylvania too. And the Arizona count is becoming a more solid Biden win by the minute. Don't send any money to Trump for a re-count. I know he's trying to sell so me kind of preserving Independence fund. He's just playing you. The electi on is over. It's not a massive loss to look at the popular vote, pretty muc h split down the middle within a couple of points.

Not surprising given all the phoney votes: dead people, out-of-staters, illegals and so on. 'They' could never let Trump win another term, so it was always going to be the case that all means necessary were brought to bear to deny him the 2nd term that was rightfully his.

to the count. 4,000 for Trump and 16,000 for the Biden. Among other things this means the proportion of mail-ins for Biden is 16/20 = 80%, which agr ees with election official observations of it being roughly 75%. The longer the election counts linger, the more the totals drift to Biden. They still have plenty more ballots to count. Biden will take Nevada by 100,000 votes the way things are going. Looks like there's a good chance Biden will take Georgia and Pennsylvania too. And the Arizona count is becoming a more sol id Biden win by the minute.

some kind of preserving Independence fund. He's just playing you. The elec tion is over. It's not a massive loss to look at the popular vote, pretty m uch split down the middle within a couple of points.

This is part of an email I shared with a friend in AZ this morning...

I'm doing some calculations on the remaining races. Biden must still win o ne of the four remaining states. He is ahead in NV by 0.9% with 86% of the vote counted. Presently if he wins just 48% of the uncounted votes he wil l win NV.

In PA Biden is behind by 1.8% with 88% counted. If he wins 57.5% of the un counted votes he will take the state. Last night the percentage was 61.8%, so Biden is pulling ahead faster than required.

In NC Biden is behind by 1.4% with 94% counted. If Biden takes 61.8% of th e uncounted votes he takes the state. The current number is the same as la st night as no new votes reported.

In GA Biden is behind by 0.3% with 99% of the vote counted. The numbers ar e rounded off a bit so the error in the calculation may dominate, but it sa ys Biden will take the state if he gets 63.8% of the uncounted votes. Last night the number was 61.5% so this may not work out for Biden.

It is looking like not just a win, but a win comparable to Trump's win in 2

016.

It's a good day to be someone other than Trump.

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  Rick C. 

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to the count. 4,000 for Trump and 16,000 for the Biden. Among other things this means the proportion of mail-ins for Biden is 16/20 = 80%, which ag rees with election official observations of it being roughly 75%. The longe r the election counts linger, the more the totals drift to Biden. They stil l have plenty more ballots to count. Biden will take Nevada by 100,000 vote s the way things are going. Looks like there's a good chance Biden will tak e Georgia and Pennsylvania too. And the Arizona count is becoming a more so lid Biden win by the minute.

Not rightfully his until he wins an election. The rest of your post is pur e nonsense. I guess you are in ranting mode.

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  Rick C. 

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You're delusional - and living in a banana republic so far as elections are concerned. No way will Biden win fairly. NO WAY. But he will 'win' - of that I have no doubt. The only question is whether his dementia will become so obvious come changeover time that he will be unable to assume office.

to the count. 4,000 for Trump and 16,000 for the Biden. Among other things this means the proportion of mail-ins for Biden is 16/20 = 80%, which ag rees with election official observations of it being roughly 75%. The longe r the election counts linger, the more the totals drift to Biden. They stil l have plenty more ballots to count. Biden will take Nevada by 100,000 vote s the way things are going. Looks like there's a good chance Biden will tak e Georgia and Pennsylvania too. And the Arizona count is becoming a more so lid Biden win by the minute.

As of the time of this post, Biden's lead in NM has increased to 98,000 wit h plenty more mail-in ballots remaining. Since there aren't enough mail-ins to salvage a Trump victory, the state has been called a win for Biden. But there are enough ballots remaining to get a final Biden lead of well over

100,000, maybe close to 150,000. It doesn't matter at this point. And the kind of voter fraud Trump is talking about goes beyond petty identi ty or registration fraud. He's talking about a massive substitution of tens of thousands of fraudulent ballots being stuffed into those counting scann ers. It can't be done because there are observers for both parties watching the entire process, and on top of that everything is under video surveilla nce and being recorded. The only ballots going into the scanners are those that arrive in their original envelope, are qualified as being properly si gned with no visible signs of tampering, and the voter information and sign ature matches the registration database, and is recorded. Only after all th at is the ballot, which contains no identifying information since it's secr et, removed from the envelope and stacked in a pile to be scanned. Every bi t of this process is under human and video surveillance. The fraud just isn 't happening.

00 to the count. 4,000 for Trump and 16,000 for the Biden. Among other thin gs this means the proportion of mail-ins for Biden is 16/20 = 80%, which agrees with election official observations of it being roughly 75%. The lon ger the election counts linger, the more the totals drift to Biden. They st ill have plenty more ballots to count. Biden will take Nevada by 100,000 vo tes the way things are going. Looks like there's a good chance Biden will t ake Georgia and Pennsylvania too. And the Arizona count is becoming a more solid Biden win by the minute.

ith plenty more mail-in ballots remaining. Since there aren't enough mail-i ns to salvage a Trump victory, the state has been called a win for Biden. B ut there are enough ballots remaining to get a final Biden lead of well ove r 100,000, maybe close to 150,000. It doesn't matter at this point.

tity or registration fraud. He's talking about a massive substitution of te ns of thousands of fraudulent ballots being stuffed into those counting sca nners. It can't be done because there are observers for both parties watchi ng the entire process, and on top of that everything is under video surveil lance and being recorded. The only ballots going into the scanners are tho se that arrive in their original envelope, are qualified as being properly signed with no visible signs of tampering, and the voter information and si gnature matches the registration database, and is recorded. Only after all that is the ballot, which contains no identifying information since it's se cret, removed from the envelope and stacked in a pile to be scanned. Every bit of this process is under human and video surveillance. The fraud just i sn't happening.

Don't try to confuse him with the facts. He and Kellyanne Conway have alte rnate facts.

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  Rick C. 

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to the count. 4,000 for Trump and 16,000 for the Biden. Among other things this means the proportion of mail-ins for Biden is 16/20 = 80%, which ag rees with election official observations of it being roughly 75%. The longe r the election counts linger, the more the totals drift to Biden. They stil l have plenty more ballots to count. Biden will take Nevada by 100,000 vote s the way things are going. Looks like there's a good chance Biden will tak e Georgia and Pennsylvania too. And the Arizona count is becoming a more so lid Biden win by the minute.

Not that's there any evidence for any of that. Postal voting has been used for many years, and does include checks to make sure that this sort of frau d doesn't happen

be the case that all means necessary were brought to bear to deny him the 2nd term that was rightfully his.

Like the first term that was generously given to him by Putin's interventio ns?

Cursitor Doom does seem to be trying to take the position of the silliest r ight-wing nitwit to post here that is currently occupied by Flyguy. He's no t quite stupid enough to be able to get it back.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney

000 to the count. 4,000 for Trump and 16,000 for the Biden. Among other thi ngs this means the proportion of mail-ins for Biden is 16/20 = 80%, which agrees with election official observations of it being roughly 75%. The lo nger the election counts linger, the more the totals drift to Biden. They s till have plenty more ballots to count. Biden will take Nevada by 100,000 v otes the way things are going. Looks like there's a good chance Biden will take Georgia and Pennsylvania too. And the Arizona count is becoming a more solid Biden win by the minute.

ure nonsense. I guess you are in ranting mode.

It's Cursitor Doom who is delusional here. The US does run reasonably well organised elelctions. The Republicans have working hard to make them less t han fair for many years almost always by using crooked tricks to make it ha rder to vote if you are likely to vote Democrat .

In Cursitor Doom's less-than-reliable opinion.

Equally silly.

angeover time that he will be unable to assume office.

Cursitor Doom doesn't seem to know much about dementia - which isn't a prob lem that Joe Biden has - and even less about recognising the lying electora l propaganda which was trying to claim that he has. One might suspect that Cursitor Doom was showing signs of dementia himself, if he hadn't always been remarkably stupid and ill-informed - almost as ba d as Flyguy.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney

0 to the count. 4,000 for Trump and 16,000 for the Biden. Among other thing s this means the proportion of mail-ins for Biden is 16/20 = 80%, which a grees with election official observations of it being roughly 75%. The long er the election counts linger, the more the totals drift to Biden. They sti ll have plenty more ballots to count. Biden will take Nevada by 100,000 vot es the way things are going. Looks like there's a good chance Biden will ta ke Georgia and Pennsylvania too. And the Arizona count is becoming a more s olid Biden win by the minute.

l some kind of preserving Independence fund. He's just playing you. The el ection is over. It's not a massive loss to look at the popular vote, pretty much split down the middle within a couple of points.

one of the four remaining states. He is ahead in NV by 0.9% with 86% of t he vote counted. Presently if he wins just 48% of the uncounted votes he w ill win NV.

uncounted votes he will take the state. Last night the percentage was 61.8 %, so Biden is pulling ahead faster than required.

the uncounted votes he takes the state. The current number is the same as last night as no new votes reported.

are rounded off a bit so the error in the calculation may dominate, but it says Biden will take the state if he gets 63.8% of the uncounted votes. La st night the number was 61.5% so this may not work out for Biden.

2016.

PA just updated 30 some thousand ballots. This time the ratio was 97% Bide n! But that doesn't seem reasonable. If I had a one digit error in the pr ior Trump votes count the number last time and this time for the ratio of t he incremental votes is more like 70 some percent Biden, so that's more lik ely. Either that or I caught the web site in mid markup or something. I'v e got 6 data points for PA over 24 hours and it is fairly consistent (other than the probable error I mentioned) between 69% and 82% going for Biden o n the newly counted ballots.

With 6% to still count it is highly unlikely Trump will maintain his lead i n PA. GA is down to a 2000 vote difference so if there are another 3,000 b allots waiting to be counted (still reporting 1% uncounted) Biden will take those 16 electoral votes.

No updates from NC all day that I've seen. Nevada is pretty much a done de al from what I can tell.

Everything's coming up Biden.

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  Rick C. 

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000 to the count. 4,000 for Trump and 16,000 for the Biden. Among other thi ngs this means the proportion of mail-ins for Biden is 16/20 = 80%, which agrees with election official observations of it being roughly 75%. The lo nger the election counts linger, the more the totals drift to Biden. They s till have plenty more ballots to count. Biden will take Nevada by 100,000 v otes the way things are going. Looks like there's a good chance Biden will take Georgia and Pennsylvania too. And the Arizona count is becoming a more solid Biden win by the minute.

ell some kind of preserving Independence fund. He's just playing you. The election is over. It's not a massive loss to look at the popular vote, pret ty much split down the middle within a couple of points.

in one of the four remaining states. He is ahead in NV by 0.9% with 86% of the vote counted. Presently if he wins just 48% of the uncounted votes he will win NV.

e uncounted votes he will take the state. Last night the percentage was 61 .8%, so Biden is pulling ahead faster than required.

f the uncounted votes he takes the state. The current number is the same a s last night as no new votes reported.

s are rounded off a bit so the error in the calculation may dominate, but i t says Biden will take the state if he gets 63.8% of the uncounted votes. Last night the number was 61.5% so this may not work out for Biden.

in 2016.

den! But that doesn't seem reasonable. If I had a one digit error in the prior Trump votes count the number last time and this time for the ratio of the incremental votes is more like 70 some percent Biden, so that's more l ikely. Either that or I caught the web site in mid markup or something. I 've got 6 data points for PA over 24 hours and it is fairly consistent (oth er than the probable error I mentioned) between 69% and 82% going for Biden on the newly counted ballots.

in PA. GA is down to a 2000 vote difference so if there are another 3,000 ballots waiting to be counted (still reporting 1% uncounted) Biden will ta ke those 16 electoral votes.

deal from what I can tell.

PA and GA are both posting overnight. I'm getting data from the Wall St Jo urnal web page. One column of data is the percent counted. Some states sh ow what appears to be rounded even though they affix a .0 to the end. I do n't see anything other than a zero. So GA is still at 99.0% counted even a s they have updated the count five times. Trump's lead seems to be cut app roximately in half or even to a third each time. So now the lead is only 6

65 (one away from the expected number) and I expect an update in the mornin g to put Biden ahead. But who knows? They are getting down to less than 3 ,000 votes counted on each update. Maybe that's because they have a skelet on crew at night. But either way as long as there are ballots to count, Tr ump can expect to see things move to Biden's favor.

In PA it is another odd one with the remaining ballots to count. An update where the counted percentage remaining at 88% added 63,000 new ballots to the totals. Then on the next update the counted rose to 89% and the next 9

0% with increases of 73,000 and 20,000 respectively. Finally the next repo rts jumped the counted ballots to rise to 94% and 97% with added counts of 44,000 and 13,000. This seems very incongruous. How can 44,000 add 4% and 13,000 add 3% to the total?

So now there are only 3% to count and Biden is 18,000 behind. I have no id ea how many ballots the uncounted 3% will turn into. At the 75% number Bid en has been running in PA it would need to be 36,000 to go. I can't tell i f that many remain or not. They will count all ballots that come in today. We'll see if that turns out a win for Biden. It may be really, really cl ose.

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  Rick C. 

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Not being an American, nor being in USA, I don't usually pay much attention to presidential elections, since both candidates seem pretty reasonable, with the choice coming down to a policy value judgement.

Not this year. Fortunately for the world, it looks like a Biden win now.

I was scarcely able to believe that so many Americans voted for Trump last time.

I'm truly aghast that so many have voted for him this time, given his clear record of lying about anything and everything. Truth seems to mean nothing to him.

What is wrong with half of the electorate?

The only remaining concern (other than public violence over the result), is how much further damage Trump can do between the time he finally accepts that he has lost, and inauguration day. I suspect it could be quite a lot.

Sylvia.