Every time the weather does something weird, which is often, some boffins come up with a theory or a simulation that explains what happened. It's a shame that those theories and models have no predictive value.
You can always do a regression analysis of a chaotic time series, to however much accuracy you want, with a polynomial curve fit or by tweaking parameters in a complex model, and congratulate yourself on your understanding. But you can't extrapolate.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing laser drivers and controllers jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
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tmoszeric scienntists lack basic common sense.
a typical mechanic, you do a data dump of some apparently relevant factoid s, with no coherence or understanding whatsoever.
ctic warming, measurably slow the jet stream velocity and some observable c onsequences. That is basic physics, not conjecture. Just because you're inc apable of learning or understanding anything about the wave functions under study does not mean it's unimportant.
My point is that there's nothing stochastic about the basic physics of dimi nished temperature differentials slowing the polar jet streams.
If you are saying that having sub-zero temps in the eastern US is correlated with lower differentials against Arctic temperatures, I can't argue with that concept.
Now please explain why California is so warm. And tell us how next winter will be across the USA, while you're at it.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing laser drivers and controllers jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
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ike a typical mechanic, you do a data dump of some apparently relevant fact oids, with no coherence or understanding whatsoever.
arctic warming, measurably slow the jet stream velocity and some observabl e consequences. That is basic physics, not conjecture. Just because you're incapable of learning or understanding anything about the wave functions un der study does not mean it's unimportant.
iminished temperature differentials slowing the polar jet streams.
Your weather is being caused by the ridiculously resilient ridge:
about reality, but excuses for failing take any trouble to understand what the observation do tell us. It's much easier for him to take Anthony Watts seriously that it is to learn enough to be aware that Anthony Watts is a f lake.
I do not pay a lot of attention to posts about global warming. It isn't as if my understanding of the facts is going to change anything. So it reall y is not worth my attention.
But it looks like you invoked Anthony Watts as a straw man you can then dem olish. Has John ever mentioned Anthony Watts?
Dan
Sure. But why do we have the ridge this year?
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing laser drivers and controllers jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
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., like a typical mechanic, you do a data dump of some apparently relevant f actoids, with no coherence or understanding whatsoever.
to arctic warming, measurably slow the jet stream velocity and some observ able consequences. That is basic physics, not conjecture. Just because you' re incapable of learning or understanding anything about the wave functions under study does not mean it's unimportant.
o nf diminished temperature differentials slowing the polar jet streams.
The reason it hangs there is because the polar jet stream does not have eno ugh momentum to sweep it away, the ridge is deflecting the jet stream north ward at the collision, the northward deflection causes high pressure to bui ld in front of the stream which forces it south as it travels eastward, muc h farther south than it would normally go. This is why the midwest and east coast as far south as Florida are getting so much cold air. You can keep a sking why until your blue in the face, your confusion is not our problem. T he basic fact of the matter is the jet stream is measurably slower due to a rctic warming, and we're experiencing just some of the resulting weirdness.
ns about reality, but excuses for failing take any trouble to understand wh at the observation do tell us. It's much easier for him to take Anthony Wat ts seriously that it is to learn enough to be aware that Anthony Watts is a flake.
as if my understanding of the facts is going to change anything. So it rea lly is not worth my attention.
We aren't going to get effective mitigation of anthropogenic global warming until there's a lot of public support for the inconvenient and expensive c hanges required to reduce the amount of CO2 we are dumping in the atmospher e, so you opinion does matter. Al Gore and "An Inconvenient Truth" got the mesge across, but since then the fossil fuel extraction industry has spent a lot on sufficiently effective denialist propaganda. You can't fool all th e people all the time, but you can fool people who are as gullible as John Larkin, and there are enough of them to make a difference.
emolish. Has John ever mentioned Anthony Watts?
John has repeated the story about Stevenson Boxes being painted with the wr ong kind of white paint, which is Anthony Watts' special subject. John may not know who Anthony Watts is - he doesn't know much - but he's clearly bee n influenced by him.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
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tmoszeric scienntists lack basic common sense.
a typical mechanic, you do a data dump of some apparently relevant factoid s, with no coherence or understanding whatsoever.
ctic warming, measurably slow the jet stream velocity and some observable c onsequences. That is basic physics, not conjecture. Just because you're inc apable of learning or understanding anything about the wave functions under study does not mean it's unimportant.
was a modelling exercise looking at cold winters in Europe (which had been rare).
It pointed out that global warming was making it more likely that that the Barrants and Kara Seas (north of Finland) would be ice free, and that this correlated with heavy snow falls early in winter, a lot further south than usual.
It was published 5th November 2010, and there were unusually heavy snow-fal ls as far south as Normandy early in December that year. Distinctly predict ive. You've been told about this here before, but you don't understand what 's involved, and can't fit it into your world-view.
You might congratulate yourself on your understanding. Anybody who has stud ied multiparameter curve fitting knows enough to test the reliability of a particular fitting parameter - I did it in my Ph.D. work in the late 1960's , and it was routine back then.
You've identified an amateur-night incompetence, and illustrated, once agai n, that you haven't got a clue about the subject.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Except in the years when we don't. There's hardly any snow up in the Sierras now. In the winter of 2010/2011, Sugar Bowl got 80 feet of snow, and I was skiing on the 4th of July.
I'm not confused, but the Earth's atmosphere sure is. Simplistic after-the-fact explanations are silly.
-- John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc picosecond timing laser drivers and controllers jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com http://www.highlandtechnology.com
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and, like a typical mechanic, you do a data dump of some apparently relevan t factoids, with no coherence or understanding whatsoever.
due to arctic warming, measurably slow the jet stream velocity and some obs ervable consequences. That is basic physics, not conjecture. Just because y ou're incapable of learning or understanding anything about the wave functi ons under study does not mean it's unimportant.
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s of diminished temperature differentials slowing the polar jet streams.
enough momentum to sweep it away, the ridge is deflecting the jet stream no rthward at the collision, the northward deflection causes high pressure to build in front of the stream which forces it south as it travels eastward, much farther south than it would normally go. This is why the midwest and e ast coast as far south as Florida are getting so much cold air. You can kee p asking why until your blue in the face, your confusion is not our problem . The basic fact of the matter is the jet stream is measurably slower due t o arctic warming, and we're experiencing just some of the resulting weirdne ss.
Sad to say, you are deeply confused. The weather is erratic, but some of it 's excursions can be explained. The explanation isn't all that helpful, sin ce it details what's going on, without giving much of clue how often it's g oing to happen in the future.
The explanation isn't simple - otherwise you might be able to understand it - but it isn't simplistic either (though to be fair to you, you really are n't equipped to make the distinction). You resent being exposed to stuff yo u can't make sense of, and ease your resentment by being rude about it. It' s not a mature tactic, and makes you look foolish (a state you end up in re markably frequently for a man who can say quite intelligent things about el ectronics, when he's not pretending to knowledge that he hasn't got).
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
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and, like a typical mechanic, you do a data dump of some apparently relevan t factoids, with no coherence or understanding whatsoever.
due to arctic warming, measurably slow the jet stream velocity and some obs ervable consequences. That is basic physics, not conjecture. Just because y ou're incapable of learning or understanding anything about the wave functi ons under study does not mean it's unimportant.
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s of diminished temperature differentials slowing the polar jet streams.
enough momentum to sweep it away, the ridge is deflecting the jet stream no rthward at the collision, the northward deflection causes high pressure to build in front of the stream which forces it south as it travels eastward, much farther south than it would normally go. This is why the midwest and e ast coast as far south as Florida are getting so much cold air. You can kee p asking why until your blue in the face, your confusion is not our problem . The basic fact of the matter is the jet stream is measurably slower due t o arctic warming, and we're experiencing just some of the resulting weirdne ss.
Seems like the jet stream dipping into the lower latitudes is going to brin g even more warmth back up into the arctic. Nothing like getting a head sta rt on that massive ice melt as early in the year as possible ...
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