Recently (Dec 2014) I bought some 9W LED light bulbs from
Then, a couple weeks ago, the new lamp started flickering, and also failed. Similar mode of failure. Several chips showed low resistance and did not light, while the others lit using the DMM diode check. So the lifetimes of both lamps were similar, about 2000 hours, and actually less than 1500 since they are used only about 12-18 hours a day.
I replaced the bad LED chips with some much smaller 1206 white LEDs, rated about 30mA or 100mW. I figure the current in the LED strings should be about
150mA, so this was a 5x overcurrent (yes, they lit very bright). I kept it on until it started flickering again, after about 5 minutes, and the small LEDs were toast, but also one more of the original LEDs had failed.My thought is that the original LEDs were over-rated and failed because they were driven by too much current. But I could not find any definitive information on the effect of (over)current on lifetime. The sources I found only said that LEDs fail mostly because of excess temperature, and the lifetime is determined by measuring the slight drop in luminous output after continued operation at nominal current after several thousand hours, and then extrapolated to EOL defined as something like 50%-70% of initial output.
It seems that there should be some studies on the relationship of current and lifetime, but I could not find anything. It seems like the 5x data point is about 5 minutes or 0.1 hour, and perhaps it is an exponential function with 1x=1,000 hours, 2x=>100, 3x=>10, 4x=>1, 5x=>0.1. Obviously not quite that simple, but perhaps similar.
Of course, this early failure may be typical for cheap Chinese LEDs and bulbs, but I have also heard that some of the newer Cree lamps also have much shorter lives than expected. I may order some higher quality Osram chips from Mouser for about $0.20 each and replace the ones in this lamp and see if it lasts a lot longer. Not that it's really worthwhile to "fix" it, but to see if it is the quality of the LED chips or something else. It is possible that the two strings may have unequal current causing one to fail and the others to draw even more, for a cascading failure, but there were bad LEDs in both strings.
For more info and pictures, see my thread on:
Paul