V. CONCLUSIONS A. Solar Radiation Pattern Matches Earth's Temperature The imprint of the Sun is on Earth's climate. The signal is unusually strong among the class of all climate signals, matching the entire record of global average surface temperature based on data from instruments. The imprinted signal is not visible in the broadband, Total Solar Irradiation model, but can be seen by filtering, much as spectral analysis reveals significant sinusoidal frequency components. And what is significant depends not on the source - the Sun -- but on the receiver - Earth. Moreover, because the problem is thermodynamic, and the medium, heat, has capacity but not inertia, temperature will not contain natural frequencies to resonate with a source.
-> Contents . B. Earth's Natural Responses Dictate What Is Important from the Sun. The ocean dominates the natural climate processes on Earth, and its three dimensional currents have the effect of storing and releasing energy and gases after a number of finite delays. According to this model, Earth should selectively reinforce and suppress finite delays within the structure of solar radiation. Application of the most elementary finite-time filter, the fixed time, running trend, reveals a pair of components of solar radiation, one major (S134) and one minor (S46), that combine linearly in the ratio of
5:1 to match Earth's temperature history as known by instruments.-> Contents . C. Signal Selection & Amplification. For the conclusions reached in this paper, the energy in S134 is sufficient by itself. However, it is not sufficient as a radiative forcing were it to be received at the surface of Earth to have a measurable affect on climate. However, the accuracy of the model in matching Earth's temperature record indicates that an amplifying process must operate on solar radiation.
-> Contents .
- Albedo Amplification The obvious choice for the amplifier of solar radiation is cloud albedo, neglected in GCMs, but easily shown to be the most powerful temperature feedback in Earth's climate. Furthermore, the conventional model for Earth's radiation budget contains open-loop processes known to affect the extent of cloud cover, and hence cloud albedo. Most significant among these processes is atmospheric absorption of incoming solar radiation. This absorption affects the temperature lapse rate to warm the atmosphere, but heretofore climate studies did not apply this short wave effect to the extent of cloud cover. The model advanced for Earth's variable response to solar radiation is empirical, but requiring few coefficients to match the long records of temperature on Earth to appropriately filtered solar energy.
-> Contents .
- Fast & slow albedo feedback In consideration of all the processes and observations, cloud albedo must be modeled with both a fast reaction, positive feedback, and a slow reaction, negative feedback. The fast reaction is a positive feedback with respect to solar insolation, amplifying variations in solar radiation as it imparts energy to Earth's surface, including the surface layer of the ocean. The slow reaction is a negative feedback with respect to surface temperature. It operates through the increase in humidity that accompanies a rise especially in ocean surface layer temperature. The fast reaction amplifies TSI, while at the same time the slow reaction mitigates warming, including that from the TSI it amplified.
Not recognized by IPCC is that feedback exists with respect to a flow variable. This fact is not even recognizable within IPCC's radiative forcing paradigm because it has no flow variables. Consequently, IPCC models feedback loops as correlations between variables (e.g., TAR Figures 7.4,
7.6, 7.7, & 7.8, pps. 439, 445, 448, & 454 respectively), and not as confluences in energy, mass, or information flow between sources external and internal to the system. Cloud albedo fast response operates on short wave radiation directly through the parameter of the temperature at cloud level. Cloud albedo slow response operates on surface temperature indirectly through the parameter of humidity, especially as released by the ocean.-> Contents . D. Climate Change Is Not Anthropogenic. On the scale of the instrumental record of Earth's surface temperature over the last 160 years, humans have had no effect, and the Solar Global Warming model advanced here would predict none. To the extent that IPCC might presume that human activities have altered Earth's temperature record, the effect is imaginary, absent some sentient extraterrestrial force that managed to keep the Sun synchronized with Earth's average surface temperature.
IPCC claims to have evidence of the fingerprint of man on Earthly gas and temperature processes are unsubstantiated. Each has a basis in graphical trickery. Two of these claims falsely demonstrate relationships known mathematically: the rate of CO2 increase compared to the rate of O2 decrease, and the rate of fossil fuel emissions compared to the rate of decrease in the isotopic weight of atmospheric CO2 based on mass balance principles. Other claims rely on investigator-manufactured data from ancient records blended into modern records, where the former are averages by a process requiring a year to centuries, while the latter are relatively instantaneous. The records requiring a year are tree ring reductions, while the others are measurements from ice cores that average gas concentrations over a range of couple of decades to a millennium and a half.
-> Contents . E. Greenhouse Gases Do Not Cause Climate Change. Just as the Earth's temperature record following the Sun eliminates humans from the climate equation, so is the fate of the greenhouse effect. To the extent that the greenhouse effect is correlated with Earth's temperature history, the cause must link from the Sun to the greenhouse gases. The alternative is the silly proposition that solar radiation variations might be caused by changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.
-> Contents . F. AGW post-mortem. AGW is dead. Here are some topics for the post-mortem. Forensic analysis of proxy reductions for correlations caused by data set sharing, and subjective smoothing into the instrument record. Forensic analysis of whether proxy temperature reductions have any validity. An à priori model for the tapped delay line representation of climate based on ocean currents. An à priori model for cloudiness as it responds to short wave radiation