All,
A recent Intel presentation at an IEEE Workshop admitted that clock frequency has max'd out, and now has to go down (not up) in order to not create heat.
We have known that for years now. So has AMD.
The only choice is "multi."
Intel proposes a future with more than 200 x86 cores on one die, with a "communications fabric" and many memories. All on one die. Small software problem to be solved by the need to have it solved....
One attendee of the conference (not me!) quipped, "sounds like you are describing a FPGA..."
Boy did the presenter get mad! To be ccompared to a lowly FPGA! He was spitting venom back at the attendee. "There is no comparison! FPGAs are fine grained, and this is not!"
Sounds like if that is the only difference, the FPGA wins. Again.
Oh, and I can't wait for Intel to stub their toes on that "communications fabric" (left as an exercise for the student). Or the software.
I think that we are all dissapointed: no high K gate dielectric, so the supply voltage can't scale anymore, worsening variation in threshold voltages, because not only can you count the layers in the gate dielectric on your fingers, but you can count the ions that got implanted, too. Not only does the source-drain leak when off, but gates leak now (at 65nm and below).
A new fab costing 2B$. No clear path for lithography.
Good thing we make a standard product, and can afford to keep developing it. ASSP vendors will have to consolodate, and reduce their offerings. Real tough times ahead for some business models. Only place to get the latest IP will be from FPGA vendors....
The future is ~500 MHz, more stuff, and voltages slowly decreasing to
0.8 volts.
But, we can still get twice as many transistors per unit area, all the way down to 22nm. And that increases thoughput and processing power.
45nm, 35nm, and then 22nm. Life in the old horse yet. 2B 6 input LUTs in V8? 100 Mb of BRAM? 2,000 DSP processors? Crystal ball is getting very hazy....Aunti Em! Aunti Em! She is holding her head! (apologies to the Wizard of Oz movie).
After that, we really are looking for that disruptive technology with which we can make a new FPGA.
Now if I could only get those unobtainium wafers to yield....
Austin