Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)

Do you have a question? Post it now! No Registration Necessary

Translate This Thread From English to

Threaded View
Skybuck's Thoughts on how the Corona Virus situation will develop in The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college:

Students have a stronger immune system. This will allow the spreading of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.

When this stronger version of the Corona Virus is transmitted to older persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune systems !

Bye,
  Skybuck.

Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 5:35:29 PM UTC+10, skybuck2000 wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/college
:  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
a stronger version of the Corona Virus.  

If there were a "stronger version of the corona virus" this might happen. T
here is some genetic variation between different strains of the corona viru
s - not a lot - and none of the variation seems to make any difference to t
he effectiveness of the virus as an infective agent or the damage it does w
hen you do get infected with it.

The stronger immune system mostly lets younger people clear the virus from  
their system faster than older people can manage, and they are consequently
 less likely to get a severe infection, or spread as many virus particles,  
but the virus they spead is just the same as that spread by anybody else.
  

Quoted text here. Click to load it
rsons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune system
s !  

Skybuck reasons from a false premise to a false conclusion. He does make a  
habit of this.

Flyguy does seem to be competing with him for the position of the groups al
most always wrong poster. Flyguy has only entered the competition recently  
but he has built up a dazzling tally of own goals. Skybuck has been at it f
or longer.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 10:35:51 AM UTC+2, Bill Sloman wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
e Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/colle
ge:  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
f a stronger version of the Corona Virus.
Quoted text here. Click to load it
 There is some genetic variation between different strains of the corona vi
rus - not a lot - and none of the variation seems to make any difference to
 the effectiveness of the virus as an infective agent or the damage it does
 when you do get infected with it.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
m their system faster than older people can manage, and they are consequent
ly less likely to get a severe infection, or spread as many virus particles
, but the virus they spead is just the same as that spread by anybody else.
Quoted text here. Click to load it
persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune syst
ems !
Quoted text here. Click to load it
a habit of this.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
almost always wrong poster. Flyguy has only entered the competition recentl
y but he has built up a dazzling tally of own goals. Skybuck has been at it
 for longer.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

There already is/are stronger versions of the Corona Virus.

I will take any bets in pascal coins lol as to the outcome of the coming wi
nter and the rising death tol.

According to my prediction which is slightly inspired by computer simulatio
ns from 2009 which I performed myself the age at which people die will go d
own from 50 to maybe 45 and 40 and the number of deaths is going to rise th
is winter.

However the numbers of deaths rising in winter may also be caused by breath
/air going upwards because of cold temperatures and thus spreading faster.

Also I have seen no reports or facts that prove your claims that young peop
le clear the corona virus faster, do you have any links to research ?

So far I have only seen the quarantine time go down from 14 days to 10 days
. Still plenty of days to spread virus around.

Bye,
  Skybuck.

Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 11:19:19 PM UTC+10, skybuck2000 wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/col
lege:  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
 of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
n. There is some genetic variation between different strains of the corona  
virus - not a lot - and none of the variation seems to make any difference  
to the effectiveness of the virus as an infective agent or the damage it do
es when you do get infected with it.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
rom their system faster than older people can manage, and they are conseque
ntly less likely to get a severe infection, or spread as many virus particl
es, but the virus they spead is just the same as that spread by anybody els
e.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
r persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune sy
stems !  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
e a habit of this.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
s almost always wrong poster. Flyguy has only entered the competition recen
tly but he has built up a dazzling tally of own goals. Skybuck has been at  
it for longer.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

This is Flyguy's argument by repeated assertion. It isn't remotely convinci
ng.
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
winter and the rising death toll.  

Of course you will. The result wouldn't have anything to do with the virus  
getting "weaker" or "stronger" but rather depends on who catches it. Younge
r people are much less likely to die of it, but that's it.
Quoted text here. Click to load it
ions from 2009 which I performed myself the age at which people die will go
 down from 50 to maybe 45 and 40 and the number of deaths is going to rise  
this winter.  

Computer simulations aren't any better than the assumptions on which they a
re based. At least one of yours does seem to be total rubbish.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
th/air going upwards because of cold temperatures and thus spreading faster
.  

If the deaths do rise in winter. They haven't in Australia (which doesn't h
ave much of winter, but does see more flu deaths in our winter  - not this  
year, as it happens because social distancing also works to slow the spread
 of flu.
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
ople clear the corona virus faster, do you have any links to research?  

You clearly haven't been looking, and wouldn't understand the evidence if I
 did go to the trouble of digging it out.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
ys. Still plenty of days to spread virus around.  

Quarantine times deal with the worse cases of asymptomatic infection, not t
he average time that infected people continue to spread the virus - which e
ssentially keeps on happening until the immune system starts killing of the
 virus faster than it can reproduce.

You start spreading the virus about 36 hours before you show signs of infec
tion (if you show signs of infection, which doesn't happen in 15+/-3% of ca
ses) and keep on doing it until the immune system kills of the virus in you
r body, or until the virus kills you.

Do try to think about what's going on, rather than inventing non-existent "
stronger" and "weaker" viruses.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
Quoted text here. Click to load it
ups almost always wrong poster. Flyguy has only entered the competition rec
ently but he has built up a dazzling tally of own goals. Skybuck has been a
t it for longer.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
cing.  

Some countries have much more deaths than other countries and thus one can  
come to that conclusion that there exist more strong versions.

But for the sake of discussion let's google it and see what is found:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803105246.htm

At least this article mentions 6 strains of the corona virus, while in real
ity it is probably already much more, so why this article only mentions 6 w
hile the tree is already much larger is kinda weird.

But you know what I am going to throw in animals into the mix something tha
t may have been overlooked by this article and researchers.

In the Netherlands animals have been infected and are killed at a mass leve
l:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2020/06/covid19-forces-mink-farm
-end-netherlands/

There ya go.... minks infected with corona virus. Is the corona virus mutat
ing within minsks ?! Will it then return to human beings.

The spanish influenze virus of 1918 killed babies and young children. If th
e corona virus where to steal/borrow/copy code from such a virus it may sta
rt killing our babies/children as well ?! What will we or the politicians d
o than ?!

I'll take bets for pascal coin that this will become reality in perhaps 5 y
ears. An indicator of this reality could be dolphins with similiar corona v
irusses dieing as well, I am not yet sure if young dolphins died too with s
ame kind of virus.

Also keep in mind it only takes 1 mutation in 1 virus particle to change th
e outcome of this pandemic. Just one corona virus that mutates into a more  
dangerous version and we could be facing DOOOOOooooommmmmm.

So the article's conclusion that the virus strains are similiar is a false  
sense of safety. It's just a ticking mutation time bomb waiting to happen.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
g winter and the rising death toll.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
s getting "weaker" or "stronger" but rather depends on who catches it. Youn
ger people are much less likely to die of it, but that's it.

Let's consider it a seperate bet.

My prediction is in the winter there will be more deaths ? If anybody disgr
ees I will take that bet lol.

My other prediction is the age of deaths will go down ? Any takers ? ;) :)
This one I am less sure of but for the fun of it I will take bets.

Anybody known of a cryptocoin-internet/web-service where we can bet on even
ts outcome ? ;)

Maybe I make one myself just for kicks and just for this corona virus, soun
ds cool and sound maybe profiteable ! ;)

Quoted text here. Click to load it
ations from 2009 which I performed myself the age at which people die will  
go down from 50 to maybe 45 and 40 and the number of deaths is going to ris
e this winter.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
 are based. At least one of yours does seem to be total rubbish.

There is nothing rubbish about seeing mutations in actions. It's real and i
t works and it could very well be dangerous.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
eath/air going upwards because of cold temperatures and thus spreading fast
er.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
 have much of winter, but does see more flu deaths in our winter - not this
 year, as it happens because social distancing also works to slow the sprea
d of flu.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
people clear the corona virus faster, do you have any links to research?

Quoted text here. Click to load it
 I did go to the trouble of digging it out.

I am listening but I am pretty sure you cannot provide any links whatso eve
r, now it's you who will have to backup your bogus claims as far as I am co
ncerned.

The web is actually full with the opposite children spreading the virus muc
h more than expected, as well as many concerns about students spreading it.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
days. Still plenty of days to spread virus around.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
 the average time that infected people continue to spread the virus - which
 essentially keeps on happening until the immune system starts killing of t
he virus faster than it can reproduce.  

Let's call it spread-duration then or something. Some links were found wher
e children can infect others for 3 weeks unnoticed/invisible without sympto
ms. Thus a much more worse case scenerio than initially imagined.

This also conflicts with dutch reports that children would not be responsib
le for the spread of viruses hence I do not trust the dutch goverment and i
t's advisery organization that much anymore.

Common sense almost dictates that during a virus crisis you don't put human
 beings next to each other, though this is now happening in the Netherlands
 which I am sure will be a terrible decision and situation that will be pro
ven the coming months as children/students are being send back to school.
  


Quoted text here. Click to load it
ection (if you show signs of infection, which doesn't happen in 15+/-3% of  
cases) and keep on doing it until the immune system kills of the virus in y
our body, or until the virus kills you.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
 "stronger" and "weaker" viruses.  

There are parts of the world that are immune to the corona virus and resear
chers are trying to figure out why. This can be interpreted as strong virus
 vs weak virus.

Right now to those that are immune the current corona virus looks weak or e
ven non-threatening.

It will be a matter of time before the corona virus finds a way to infect t
hose as well.

Perhaps strong vs weak is bad wording one could also call it "infection-pot
ential"or "'infection potent".

The virus or the universe/evolver is literally trying to find a way into ou
r bodies and immune system. It is a search algorithm trying to find a bette
r weapon.

This is ultimately what the universe might actually be. Just a computer sim
ulation ran by externals to find/search for weapons.

This could just be another biological weapon and cure/defense for them to f
ind/use.

There is a very strong similiarity between all life forms: fighting for sur
vival, adepting to new threats, finding ways to fight/weaponize the body et
c.

One has to wonder why this similarity is so prevalent hence the conclusion:
 the universe  is a weapon lab ran by externals.

Quite a cool conclusion. I throw it in the mix for you, something to think  
about. Not that it will help us much, except that this is truely a fight/wa
r.

All kinds of tactics can be applied during a war.

For now my recommended tactic would be:

Rely on your immune system to defend you, eat your vitamines/mixed food.

Isolate/hide yourself from others.

Do not trust the goverment or other officials. During the outbreak of 1918  
they lied to the public and concealed the thruth, what makes you think they
 are telling you everything now ?

Don't give me that bullshit of assumptions and made up crap by Skybuck.

Google/research it first otherwise you just look like a troll.

For now I will discuss this even with a troll, it might give others some mo
re insight none the less.

One last thing I case you still don't get it. The goverments are only telli
ng you half-thruths but are conceiling still parts of it, this sucks.

Bye for now,
  Skybuck.

Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On Tuesday, September 29, 2020 at 4:40:49 AM UTC+10, skybuck2000 wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
roups almost always wrong poster. Flyguy has only entered the competition r
ecently but he has built up a dazzling tally of own goals. Skybuck has been
 at it for longer.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
incing.
n come to that conclusion that there exist more strong versions.  

Some countries have more people infected by the corona virus, and much the  
same proportion of them die, so they have more deaths. No "stronger version
" of the virus is necessary to explain that. Some populations have more eld
erly people, who are more likely to die if they get infected by Covid-19. T
hat leads to more deaths too.
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
ality it is probably already much more, so why this article only mentions 6
 while the tree is already much larger is kinda weird.  

https://www.bioserendipity.com/defining-a-new-strain-of-a-virus/

A "strain" is reserved for variations that represent a substantial proporti
on of the  population. There are always going to be more genetic variants t
han there are "strains".

Quoted text here. Click to load it
hat may have been overlooked by this article and researchers.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
vel:  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
rm-end-netherlands/  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
ating within minks ?! Will it then return to human beings.  

What matter is the ACE-2 receptor on the surface of the cells in the creatu
re infected. It seems that the pangolin has a n ACE-2 receptor that looks v
ery like the human one. There's no reason that the mink couldn't too.
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
the corona virus where to steal/borrow/copy code from such a virus it may s
tart killing our babies/children as well ?! What will we or the politicians
 do than ?!  

Covid-19 is a corona virus. The influenza virus is also an RNA virus, but i
t's genome seems to be smaller and it attacks through a different receptor  
- mixing the two genomes would give you a virus that couldn't infect anythi
ng.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
 years. An indicator of this reality could be dolphins with similiar corona
 virusses dying as well, I am not yet sure if young dolphins died too with  
same kind of virus.  

The only reality here is that Skybuck hasn't got a clue.
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
the outcome of this pandemic. Just one corona virus that mutates into a mor
e dangerous version and we could be facing DOOOOOooooommmmmm.  

And what would this more dangerous version do that made it more dangerous?  
The measles virus is more infectious, the ebola and rabies viruses are more
 lethal. but it would take much more than a single mutation for the corona  
virus to acquire the capacity to do the kind of damage that these viruses c
an inflict.
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
e sense of safety. It's just a ticking mutation time bomb waiting to happen
.

All the strains and variants of Covid-19 we have seen so far have been equa
lly infectious, and damage the people they infect in the same kind of way.  
The nature of the damage changes as the viral load gets higher - blood vess
els start of get blocked and clots form all over the place - but thats a qu
antitative difference, not a qualitiative one.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
ing winter and the rising death toll.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
rus getting "weaker" or "stronger" but rather depends on who catches it. Yo
unger people are much less likely to die of it, but that's it.
Quoted text here. Click to load it

<snip>

Quoted text here. Click to load it
ey are based. At least one of yours does seem to be total rubbish.
Quoted text here. Click to load it
 it works and it could very well be dangerous.

But your imaginary mutations are total rubbish.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
breath/air going upwards because of cold temperatures and thus spreading fa
ster.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
't have much of winter, but does see more flu deaths in our winter - not th
is year, as it happens because social distancing also works to slow the spr
ead of flu.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
g people clear the corona virus faster, do you have any links to research?
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
if I did go to the trouble of digging it out.
Quoted text here. Click to load it
ver, now it's you who will have to backup your bogus claims as far as I am  
concerned.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
uch more than expected, as well as many concerns about students spreading i
t.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
0 days. Still plenty of days to spread virus around.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
ot the average time that infected people continue to spread the virus - whi
ch essentially keeps on happening until the immune system starts killing of
 the virus faster than it can reproduce.
Quoted text here. Click to load it
ere children can infect others for 3 weeks unnoticed/invisible without symp
toms. Thus a much more worse case scenario than initially imagined.  

There do seem to be strains of Covid-19 that differ enough that you can get
 infected by one strain, develop antibopdies against it and get rid of it,  
then get infected by a strain that is different enough that your antibodies
 don't recognise it as Covid-19 and your immune system has to develop a new
 set of antibodies against the new strain. If you immune system hasn't got  
rid of the virus  after three weeks you'd be very sick and showing lots of  
symptoms.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
ible for the spread of viruses hence I do not trust the dutch goverment and
 it's advisory organization that much anymore.  

Of course you don't. You are an idiot. Children do seem to have particularl
y active immune systems, and while they do get infected, they usually get o
n top of the virus very fast, and don't spread the virus for long, or in la
rge volume.
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
an beings next to each other, though this is now happening in the Netherlan
ds which I am sure will be a terrible decision and situation that will be p
roven the coming months as children/students are being send back to school.
Quoted text here. Click to load it
nfection (if you show signs of infection, which doesn't happen in 15+/-3% o
f cases) and keep on doing it until the immune system kills of the virus in
 your body, or until the virus kills you.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
nt "stronger" and "weaker" viruses.
Quoted text here. Click to load it
archers are trying to figure out why.  

Really? There are places that the corona virus hasn't got to yet, and other
s where they are trying to ignore it, but "immune" is just nuts.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Idiots do come up with bizarre interpretations.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
 even non-threatening.

Of course. There does seem to be enough variation between different strains
 of the virus that you can be immune to one and still get infected by anoth
er.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
 those as well.  

As the influenza virus has been doing for as long as it has been around.
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
otential"or "'infection potent".  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
our bodies and immune system. It is a search algorithm trying to find a bet
ter weapon.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
imulation ran by externals to find/search for weapons.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
 find/use.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
urvival, adepting to new threats, finding ways to fight/weaponize the body  
etc.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
n: the universe is a weapon lab ran by externals.  

Charles Darwin worked out the answer that you don't seem to properly unders
tand - descent with variation and selection between the various different d
escendants.  It has been around since 1859. but some people still haven't g
ot the message.

<snip>

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 9:19:19 AM UTC-4, skybuck2000 wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
The Netherlands where children and students are allowed to go to school/col
lege:  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
 of a stronger version of the Corona Virus.
Quoted text here. Click to load it
n. There is some genetic variation between different strains of the corona  
virus - not a lot - and none of the variation seems to make any difference  
to the effectiveness of the virus as an infective agent or the damage it do
es when you do get infected with it.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
rom their system faster than older people can manage, and they are conseque
ntly less likely to get a severe infection, or spread as many virus particl
es, but the virus they spead is just the same as that spread by anybody els
e.
Quoted text here. Click to load it
r persons, more deaths will occur among older persons with weaker immune sy
stems !
Quoted text here. Click to load it
e a habit of this.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
s almost always wrong poster. Flyguy has only entered the competition recen
tly but he has built up a dazzling tally of own goals. Skybuck has been at  
it for longer.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

If there are "stronger" versions of the virus (whatever is meant by "strong
er"), why would they only proliferate in the young???  What does "stronger"
 mean that it would not spread more readily in all age groups and displace  
the "weaker" strains?  


Quoted text here. Click to load it
ions from 2009 which I performed myself the age at which people die will go
 down from 50 to maybe 45 and 40 and the number of deaths is going to rise  
this winter.

There are many predicting higher death counts this winter.  There is no cut
off age for dying from this disease.  Without more concrete predictions the
re is no way to test your ideas.  

--  

  Rick C.

  - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On Monday, September 28, 2020 at 6:19:19 AM UTC-7, skybuck2000 wrote:

Quoted text here. Click to load it

You don't know that; there's some genetic branching, true, but "stronger" is
a vague and untestable hypothesis.   A disease that acts effectively in young
hosts might NOT do well in older folk (with immunities builtup over a lifetime to
similar viruses).   That's how the 1918 flu epidemic progressed, it's a TESTED
hypothesis in that case.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

The young people with stronger immune systems (your claim) are somehow not
convincing you that they clear the corona virus faster?   That's sophistry, there.

Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On 28/09/2020 21:47, whit3rd wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Better at transmitting in its new host is one interpretation (and if it  
was killing a higher proportion of them than Covid actually does then  
backing off on virulence to allow a longer period of transmission).

The wild form of coronavirus has already been supplanted by the  
allegedly more vigorous D614G strain (ie. better at infecting people).

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02544-6

Applying a lockdown necessarily selects for the most infectious strain.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

The 1918 flu killed young people by cytokine storm with their stronger  
immune system acting against them - at least that is what is now  
thought. Thought some authors think that pre exposure to the Russian flu  
in 1890 (now thought to be a coronavirus OC43 by some) made young adults  
particularly vulnerable to the H1N1 of 1918.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/3BCBF4BDFBD8C5F0F4FBFDF34DF42209/S1357321719000023a.pdf/div-class-title-age-dependence-of-the-1918-pandemic-div.pdf

Quoted text here. Click to load it

The people who appear to be in maximum danger have a genetic defect in  
the code fo interferon-1 or antibodies against their own interferon.  
Reported last week from the big data analysis of 1000 individual DNA  
sequences of people badly affected vs those hardly touched by it.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 12:19:29 AM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

I wonder how the hypothesis got tested? We only recently got hold of samples of the 1918 flu (from bodies buried in permafrost) and working out the antibody inventory of people who were of mature years in 1918could be tricky.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

There has also been a suggestions that 1918 flu was a strain of an earlier - less deadly - swine flu, and many older people had antibodies against it.

Quoted text here. Click to load it


Not a lot of comfort there, even for people who have had their genome sequenced. Unless of course companies like 23andme are telling some of their customers that they should be very careful to avoid getting infected by Covid-19

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On 29/09/2020 15:48, Bill Sloman wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it


It may yet provide a way to test, identify and screen out the most  
vulnerable from front line positions before they get seriously ill.

https://www.genengnews.com/news/severe-covid-19-cases-linked-to-genes-autoimmunity-and-interferon-disruption/

More is coming out every day as they seem to have several papers now  
from various groups around the world. A larger study follows.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On Tuesday, September 29, 2020 at 11:36:31 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
oimmunity-and-interferon-disruption/
Quoted text here. Click to load it

What do "front line" positions have to do with it?  There is literally no p
lace that is safe from this disease.  

At one time people here were holding up El Dorado county as a sleepy back w
ater county that would never see significant infection rates because of som
ething, geography, population density, not sure.  But now El Dorado, CA has
 surpassed Tampa FL in per capita daily new infections.  That's right, one  
of Florida's hotter areas now has a lower infection rate than the sleepy ba
ckwater county of El Dorado, CA.  

So what is this nonsense about screening the "vulnerable" from front line p
ositions???  

--  

  Rick C.

  - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On 30/09/2020 00:37, Ricketty C wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
More is coming out every day as they seem to have several papers now
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Medics are at enormously higher risk than the general population and  
their employers owe them a duty of care to avoid putting the most  
vulnerable ones in harms way. They have already screened out some based  
on the known morbidity factors with the following risk chart:

https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2768/bma-covid-19-risk-assessment-tool-july2020.pdf

Not perfect but it is a start. Certainly much better than sending newly  
retired volunteer medics with pre-existing health conditions to their  
deaths with inadequate PPE as happened in the first wave.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

America seems to specialise in doing stupid things to maximise  
transmission. That is what too much individual freedom gets you.

UK isn't making a good fist of it either. Neither is France or Spain and  
it is only autumn - the winter flu season hasn't even started yet.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

A very good idea. This disease bounces off 80% of the population with  
hardly any symptoms at all. There is however a cohort of about 3-5% who  
are in extreme danger from it mostly the elderly but not exclusively.

At the moment there is no way to tell who is in this extreme risk  
category but the big data guys are closing in on genetic markers.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 4:20:54 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
autoimmunity-and-interferon-disruption/
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
020.pdf
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

The idea sounds good, but is not of much value in the real world.  More imp
ortant would be to take effective measures to simply stop the disease.  Wat
ching many locations it seems we inevitably become complacent with our effe
ctive measures against the disease and open up exposure allowing infection  
rates to rise.  The few countries that mount an effective effort to restric
t the spread of the disease are able to continue to live normal lives.  Tho
se in the rest of the world live in a state of constant partial quarantine  
dealing with both restrictions harming the economy and alternately rising a
nd falling rates of illness and death.  

Many US governments seem to feel there is a balance between infection rates
 and "opening the economy".  This is a fallacy.  Many individuals feel they
 don't need to practice safety measures to prevent the spread of the virus.
  Those are the people fueling the resurgence of the disease and preventing
 us from fighting effectively.  

You can talk about the disease mutating into new forms and that may happen,
 but the single largest impact on the course of this disease is basic human
 behavior.  It is that simple.  If we treat this disease like it is dangero
us we will be able to get it under control.  If we don't it will continue t
o ravage both our health and our economy.  

--  

  Rick C.

  -- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On 30/09/2020 16:12, Ricketty C wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it


The way things are we have to use whatever measures can be brought to  
bear on the virus. Going into winter it will surely get worse. UK is  
experiencing exponential growth again with a doubling time ~ 2weeks.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

It is far too late to stop the disease. It is now endemic in most  
Western countries estimated at 1:200 of the UK population with it today.
Quoted text here. Click to load it

We have got very mixed messages in the UK - the local lockdowns are  
complete mess. Some university cities have now got infection rates that  
are 13x the must quarantine if you return from a foreign holiday level.  
The only saving grace is that the vast majority of them do not get  
seriously ill.

The Prime Minister was on TV last night with a message of gloom that was  
pretty much "I will not hesitate to prevaricate on this matter".
Quoted text here. Click to load it

It is dangerous but it is not all that dangerous to young people and  
university students are inclined to feel immortal. It was utter madness  
to repopulate university campuses but the damage is now already done. It  
was all too predictable but they did it anyway.

The 10pm pub curfew has amplified bad behaviour rather than helping :(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54326730

We have New draconian laws with big fines for meeting more than 6 people  
and in some areas for meeting anyone at all indoors. They are however  
totally unenforceable in practice and viewed with utter comtempt.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On Thursday, October 1, 2020 at 4:26:54 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

I don't think it is actually exponential, but it is surely steep.  What the
 heck is going on in the UK that it's climbing so rapidly?  The death rate  
is ramping up again too, it's just not as clear next to the huge initial de
ath rate in the early days of the disease.  Given the multiple week lag tim
e for cases to deaths, you can expect that number to reach close to 200 a d
ay even if the infection curve turns around right now.  


Quoted text here. Click to load it

Of course it is not too late.  It is a very simple matter of having the wil
l to take the actions required.  But few western countries have that level  
of will, or maybe it's just a shortcoming of leadership.  Most politicians  
lack the backbone to make hard choices and go against the sources of campai
gn funds.  I have no doubt that even if we had a different President in the
 US the fact that it is an election year would make it very hard to fight t
he disease.  


Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

The "vast majority" factor has been in place since the beginning of this di
sease.  But "vast majority" still leaves a lot of room for many, many death
s.  

I've noticed that since the total death count in this country has topped 20
0,000 no one compares COVID-19 to "a bad flu" anymore.  You also don't hear
 the whiners in the group complain about the "overzealous" predictions that
 were presented as possibilities early on.  At the present death rate (igno
ring the very high initial deaths) we could easily see 2 to 4 million dead  
in this country before we reach herd immunity numbers assuming that is even
 a thing with this disease given the evidence the immunity may only last a  
couple months.  Only a vaccine will prevent this... or a new government.  


Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

However that is a meaningless statement.  As long as the disease continues  
to spread widely, it is a danger to *everyone*.  There is no way to shelter
 any group completely.  Most states here are opening widely before they red
uce the infection rates adequately.  So the infection flares back up again  
and again.  

It's like fighting a forest fire.  There's no such thing as getting is most
ly under control.  We can only rest and stop fighting when the disease has  
been reduced to low enough numbers that we can adequately quench the embers
 as they flare up and be seen.  


Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Yeah, same here, but at least some number of districts and colleges have ch
osen to not open classrooms.  Only the most absurdly led states have opened
 classrooms with predictable results.  


Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

It is the contempt that is the real problem.  Unless the public supports th
e fight or is forced to fight (conscription?) then the measures won't be ef
fective.  I was in a restaurant where my waitress didn't always have her ma
sk over her nose.  At the check out I asked the cashier who also was not co
vering her nose to talk to the manager and she WAS the manager.  They were  
also touching glasses with the refill pitcher for iced tea.  I didn't drink
 my second glass and I won't return to that place... ever!  

The end result is that those who take measures to prevent the spread of thi
s disease are bearing the brunt for the rest... the extremely selfish and p
ig-headed rest, not to mention the politically ambitious rest who are happy
 to sacrifice their constituents so as to support the reelection of the Pre
sident.  

The real irony of the politics is that had Trump embraced fighting this dis
ease from day one, not only would this country be out of the woods for all  
intents, he really would look like a hero and be a shoe in for reelection.  
 But he sealed his fate of being a one term loser by trying to sweep it und
er the carpet.  Yes, it will all "just disappear".  I suppose it will... so
meday, long after Trump has disappeared.  

--  

  Rick C.

  -+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On 01/10/2020 10:52, Ricketty C wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

It was exponential from the start of September. They added some half  
hearted new rules about a fortnight ago and it is now roughly quadratic  
growth in number of cases and linear growth in daily cases.

European countries seem to max out with a linear growth in daily  
infections of about +1.5k/week and quadratiuc growth of total cases. If  
you look at the global data most countries after the exponential phase  
eventually settle onto a quadratic growth curve after a while.

Schools went back first (which was relatively benign since they don't  
travel great distances) and then the universities went back taking  
infection with them from the handful of hotspots. Test & trace which was  
never much good got overwhelmed and the rest is history.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Inevitably the death rate will rise with number of cases.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

You are very optimistic about the ability to live without money, food or  
utilities.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Not in the under 45's it doesn't.

Best estimates put the number of fatalities in that cohort at about half  
the number of total fatalities that the UK has already experienced.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Since we cannot realistically wipe it out we may have no alternative but  
to live with it.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

It isn't much of a danger to school age children. They are more likely  
to die in an RTA being driver to school than they are from Covid-19.  
Interesting new research seems to suggest that many of them also have  
detectable levels of  cross reactive coronavirus antibodies from common  
colds. It got a mention on the BBC radio 4 science program yesterday but  
I haven't been able to find any papers about it yet.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000mzpr
(may need to spoof a UK IP address to play it)

Quoted text here. Click to load it

If we couldn't manage that in mid summer then there isn't a hope in hell  
of doing it in the winter.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

It is freshers parties that are doing the spreading over here. The  
classes are pretty much all online apart from some practical courses.  
Which makes having them in halls on campus all the more insane.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

The measures have to be seen to be fair and proportionate to the threat  
or they are going to get ignored. UK compliance in the first lockdown  
was very good but it all went to hell in a handcart when a government  
advisor broke the rules and got away with it completely.

Other scientific advisors had been forced to resign for much smaller  
transgressions. The problem right now is that noone trusts our  
government any more (myself included) so what they say has become  
irrelevant to daily life. Unenforced and unenforceable laws only serve  
to bring the law and law makers into disrepute.

Until very recently the only place you could buy an alcoholic drink in  
the UK after 10pm was in the House of Commons bar. One law for them and  
one for everyone else. Straight from the "do as I say not as I do"  
school of management.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

I wish I had your confidence that he will lose the forthcoming election.  
I think enough American people are dumb enough to still vote for him.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On Thursday, October 1, 2020 at 10:41:19 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

<snip>

Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

The lock-downs that have worked in Australia, backed up by reasonably effec
tive contact tracing and isolation of the potentially infected for a fortni
ght from contact, haven't stopped anybody getting food or utilities, Meatwo
rks do have to get shut down quite frequently,  but not often enough to pro
duce shortages in the shops.  The economy didn't do well, but effective loc
k down only take about six weeks and that hasn't wrecked anything yet.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

But  killing off even a few of them, when better management could prevent i
t, is murderously irresponsible.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Taiwan effectively wiped it out. Their death rate from Covid-19 is 0.3 ppm.
 South Korea and New Zealand have held it to about 5 ppm, as has most of Au
stralia. The state of Victoria didn't do as well and has a death rate as ba
d as Germany - around 100 ppm - which has pushed the country as a whole up  
to 35 ppm.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

But they can give it more vulnerable people.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Other people have managed it.

Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Some of them clearly are. The polls suggest that there aren't going to be e
nough of them to keep him in power.

He's presumably going to try some pre-election stunt with a vaccine of the  
like, but he lies too much for that to have much of an effect.

His carry-on about potential fraud in postal voting (which doesn't seem to  
happen) is worrying quite a few people. If he digs in and tries to ignore t
he election result it could get nasty. I suspect that he might experience a
 "medical emergency" if he tried to do it.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On Thursday, October 1, 2020 at 5:41:19 AM UTC-7, Martin Brown wrote:

{about COVID-19}
Quoted text here. Click to load it

There ARE realistic scenarios where it gets wiped out.   A nasal-application
vaccine, for instance, can easily be applied in the field, or at border crossings.

We may have alternatives, by this time next year, and it just takes some will
and planning.   Don't plan to 'live with it' and drop the other branches of that
decision tree!

Re: Students will spread a stronger Corona virus (Stronger Immune System in Students)
On 01/10/2020 20:42, whit3rd wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Most coronavirus experts seem to think a vaccine may be illusory or that  
if it works a bit it may only prevent the worst complications for some  
period of time rather than completely halting onward transmission.

Antibodies in people who have had Covid-19 are mostly undetectable after  
6 months. It then depends on how well the T-cells remember (or not).
Quoted text here. Click to load it

I don't get to make those sorts of decisions but the people who do in  
the UK are not at all convincing. The experts of The Royal Society in  
the UK are far more pessimistic about the prospects of a silver bullet  
than the politicians and vaccine manufacturers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54371559

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Site Timeline