Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?

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John Doe wrote:
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At the time, the world, Germany included, was well underway to
re-embrace nuclear power, to reduce CO2 emission and all that.

And then Fukushima happened.

Jeroen Belleman

Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On 17/09/2019 15:40, Jeroen Belleman wrote:
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Although tsunamis and powerful earthquakes are very much less common in  
Germany they do have quite a hefty and influential green movement.

https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/germany.aspx

Ironically because of nuclear shutdowns they are now burning vast  
quantities of dirty lignite in inefficient former East German power  
plants to make the bulk of their electricity and despoiling the  
countryside with ugly open cast lignite/brown coal mines.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/rich-seams-the-fight-over-east-germany-s-brown-coal-reserves-a-472816.html

France is the only country with serious investment in nuclear power now.
They have nearly 75% nuclear generation and export it to other EU countries.

https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx

The British nuclear plant is all ageing and being run past its design  
lifetime with new reactors still in a very precarious part built state.
(precarious as in it isn't clear if they will ever get finished or not)

https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/united-kingdom.aspx

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 10:55:19 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
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Yes, and their investment in nuclear is getting much more serious as the co
st and construction time of nuclear plants is increasing astronomically.  W
e've had the discussion already of the two most recent French designs for n
ukes have overrun to the point they are several multiples of the original c
ost estimates and the construction time has ballooned out by a factor of 5  
or more.  I don't recall the exact numbers but they are so bad, pretty much
 no one in their right mind will build similar plants until something drast
ic changes to make the economically feasible again.  


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es.
ies-a-f/france.aspx
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ies-t-z/united-kingdom.aspx

Nearly all nukes end up being run past their design lifetimes.  They have a
lways intended that.  Design to 30 or 40 years and renew the operating cert
ificates to run another 30 or 40 years once you see how much deterioration  
has happened and what it takes to fix.  

--  

  Rick C.

  - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
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Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 10:55:19 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
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Depends on how you define 'serious investment".  Sure, France has nuclear
contributing the highest percentage, but I would not call that the only
metric.  China currently has the most nukes under development and while
France gets 70% of their power from nukes, there are other countries that
generate 40 to 50%.  And the US generates more than twice the output of
France.  There are over 50 new nukes under construction around the world.




Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On 9/18/19 11:33 AM, Whoey Louie wrote:
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Where you get the water to cool reactors from is a problem in many areas  
of the world. 40% of France's fresh water reserves go to cooling their  
reactors before anyone else gets it.

A problem with fission power and why you can't build 'em fast among  
other reasons is every plant is different and has to be engineered to  
its particular location and environmental circumstances because of the  
coolant constraints. Fossil fuel plants are more "modular" and solar  
even more so.

You can build fossil fuel-fired power plants and wind farms and solar  
farms in all sorts of sizes from small to huge depending on  
environmental constraints. Water-cooled fission plants are only  
financially viable to build in one size, huge, so they have to be  
hand-crafted each time with respect to where they are.



Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?

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Build the rectors on the cost, so there is plenty of cooling water.

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The reason for constantly increasing reactor sizes is mainly
political. It is very hard to get a license to build a new reactor, so
for a specific amount of red tape, build as big as possible.

The other is the NIMBY effect, so it is very hard to start a new
nuclear site. In practice, you can only build new reactors on old
nuclear sites, in which a large part of the population work with the
old reactors.

There has been a lot of plans building small modular reactors.
However, the only standardized built I know of is the two KLT-40S
nuclear icebreaker reactors  built on the Akademik Lomonosov barge.
The barge was just recently towed to Pevek in Northern Siberia and
should start to generate power and district heat for the local
community at the end of this year.
  

Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On 9/18/19 12:45 PM, snipped-for-privacy@downunder.com wrote:
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One can see it as that the public are all scardey-pants terrified of  
things they don't understand, or that the public has a more accurate  
assessment of the risks than the profit-driven nuclear industry, who  
despite the public actually giving them numerous chances to prove them  
wrong seems to manage to fuck things up with regularity and scare the  
crap out of them once again every decade or two.

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Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On 9/18/19 6:17 PM, bitrex wrote:

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like at a basic level the public might expect the nuclear power industry  
to not have a long history of repeated safety standard violations and  
maintenance problems and pretty good track record of hiring a fair  
number of drunks and morons to run the plants day-to-day.

The nuclear industry hasn't met the basic competence tests yet

Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 3:24:59 PM UTC-7, bitrex wrote:
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Oh, I get it!   It's a purity test.    Automobile drivers kill forty thousand folk
a year, nuclear industry hovers around the same accident rate as other
industries, but 'standard violations' are all carefully documented and
the documents trotted out for occasional display.

In Iran, papers from the US embassy are occasionally waved at a camera,
accompanied by accusations of collusion/espionage/impure-thinking.

Noone ever passes a purity test, or is found 'not guilty' in a kangaroo court.
The public  only ought to apply judgement when empaneled into a jury and given
a thorough look at facts, and there's a good reason for that.


Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On 9/18/19 7:19 PM, whit3rd wrote:
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Yeah people in the biz tend to take the same persecuted-egomaniac  
attitude when peasants object to allowing the for-profit nuclear  
industry total control over determining whether they live or die today;  
it doesn't do a thing to re-enforce any confidence among the peasants  
that biz-people actually know what they're doing.

Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?

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Most of those involved in the nuclear boom have retired.

Now that they try to restart the nuclear industry, new young people
must be hired and trained. There are also new people on the licensing
side, who are much more cautious than their predecessors. demanding
long paper trails on everything. This is driving up the cost of first
new nuclear reactors.  

In the future the builders and regulators start learning the habits of
each other, thus the price of new reactors is going to drop from the
current high prices, without jeopardizing nuclear safety.


Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On Thursday, September 19, 2019 at 2:04:21 PM UTC+10, snipped-for-privacy@downunder.com wrote:
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Solar cells are likely to drop to a quarter of their current price as the they go from generating about 1% of the world's power needs (as they do at present) to most of it.

Nuclear power is already more expensive than solar, and isn't going to get much cheaper. It's not going to be competitive.

Solar generation needs storage to let it cover the whole day. Some exists -  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dinorwig_Power_Station

has been around since 1984. Snowy 2 in Australia will build on existing hydroelectric plant.

Some will be battery based like Musk's battery in South Australia, though  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanadium_redox_battery

is probably a better technology, and one now being built-up in China will have nearly twice the power of Musk's unit, and store about six times as much energy.

There are other options.  

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On Thursday, September 19, 2019 at 12:04:21 AM UTC-4, snipped-for-privacy@downunder.co
m wrote:
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Really?  So for how many years did the NRC just shake hands and take the wo
rd of the utilities that things were right?  

Such BS.  When North Anna was built the license application was falsified t
o say there was no fault line nearby.  They got caught and paid the whoppin
g fine of $32,000.  The point is they had to file paperwork and people chec
ked it.  What paperwork is required now that was not required in the 80s?
  


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Total speculation based on BS.  "learning the habits"  That is too rich.  T
he same paperwork will be filed.  The same safety systems will be required.
  The same billions of dollars will have to be spent to build a full size r
eactor.  That's why they want to increase the size of new facilities, so th
e various fixed costs can be amortized over more kWh.  

--  

  Rick C.

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Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On Thursday, September 19, 2019 at 5:58:05 AM UTC-7, Rick C wrote:
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Why would that be?   Technology CHANGES, why do we have fossilized
forms to fill out?   You've never in your life been constrained to do things
the same way your grandfather did.   What 'safety systems' of today  
match those of fifty years ago?    

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Technology changes, as do 'full size' scales.   Costs aren't fixed-in-stone by our
grandfathers.

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Unclear.   Large factories (millworks) gave way to (usually) smaller shops when steam
and line shafts were replaced by small electric motors..

When line losses are considered, multiple small generating facilities seems a more economic
solution.   NIMBY issues aside, that is.

Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
This is to everybody but you got the reply because you were last.  


untry where solar isn't worth a shit, in fact even satellite.  

But Germany's government is extremely leftist and most leftists do not thin
k out the consequences of their (knee jerk) reactions. They are talking abo
ut building a whole lotta stuff, and that is going to drive energy costs up
. But let them, that will turn the state conservative as they find that thi
s bullshit does not work.  

Nuclear is the best tradeoff with viability and not polluting. Going solar  
is wonderful but it takes alot of land, that is something they don't really
 have.  

When the new tech has advanced enough then switch, but don't force it now.  
not yet.

Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
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None. They had common sense. Don't drive into things, keep your hands away  
from that saw blade when it is turning, keep one hand in your pocket when m
essing with electricity, bob your hair if it is long when working with heav
y machinery like lathes etc.  

I would never let anyone use my machines unless they are at least 50 years  
old. That includes guns. I have refused the kid because I did not believe h
e was mature enough for a gun. Told him that he was likely to get into more
 trouble with it and solve nothing, and of course possibly wreck his life.
  

But the Germans were experts with machines, really. Better than us actually
. More productive with better precision, and this has been true for quite s
ome time. There is a REASON they came so close to taking over half of Europ
e.  

He was a boon to Germany, and responsible for Wolksvagon. I wonder how much
 he and Ford picked each other's brains, they were pen pals and had quite a
 bit of mutual respect. They were doing about the same thing - making cars  
people could afford.  

But he got out of hand. He got too much against the Jews, in fact it took h
im a while to get the people up to it even though they had been the ones fu
cked. I would have regulated them. That is what Putin does. Seems to be wor
king, Russia is in great shape now. The media might say otherwise but look  
it up for yourself and see the numbers. And when they lie, they usually lie
 against him, not for him.  

Like Pussy Riot, what hapened to them ? Some locality where they caused tro
uble at the entrance to an Olympic event and then Putin said he thought the
 sentence was a bit too harsh. They didn't disappear. All this about his en
emies disappearing, well if Pussy Riot ain't one then there are none. They  
are still there.  

I hear from people over that side of the pond that even though their govern
ment is liberal, a hell of alot of them are not. And look at Brexit, the su
pposedly liberal, progressiv Brits voted that they are sick of the interfer
ence, and the immigration policies of the EU and want their sovereignty bac
k. Some will not understand that but I do. they want to rule themselves and
 not have some foreigners telling them what to do about immigration or anyt
hing else. AND IT PASSED. What does that tell you ?  

I know what Slowman would say here and really wish he would choke on a pean
ut, or a big dick. Globalist socialists are my enemy. I want my guns. I wan
t my three acre yard where I have enough room to have a party even though m
any of my friends hate each other. Well not really hate but... And I want t
o earn the money for all this, not have it given to me. I want the freedom  
to use the Nword without going to jail, if I get busted I want my day in co
urt. I will never again take a plea bargain unless they get me drunk drivin
g, then that is really your best option. But anything else I will stand for
 myself in court. If they come and decide to search the house for whatever  
I want the right to say - got a warrant ?  They want permission, no. Wake t
he judge up, umm, (taking out my wallet) Spanagel's number is, fluff trough
 all the shit in my wallet and say " was right here, must be in the house,  
want me to get it for you ? (Spanagel is a judge in this town)  

So as nice as Germany is, I doubt I would like to spend much time there. Li
ke retire or anything. There are much better countries suited to me. At one
 time I might have considered it but they have too conservative of a govern
ment.

Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On 9/19/19 7:52 PM, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wrote:
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I'd say we all sort of existentially fear a future where the "political  
situation" is 10 billion people living in poverty and destitution on a  
planet of slums while 0.00001% of humanity lives as Gods in cloud cities  
bloated from a continual diet of human flesh harvested by drone from the  
poor wretches below.

There's differences of opinion on whether it's the socialists,  
feminists, and greens or Wal-Mart, Monsanto and the military-industrial  
complex/"deep state" that's going to push things in that direction.

Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 6:17:47 PM UTC-4, bitrex wrote:
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That's a pretty fair assessment.  The thing is we have tried our hardest to
 not have any accidents and yet in the 50 years we've been using nuclear po
wer it has had a few serious problems, none of which should have happened.  
 I think I've run the numbers here before.  When the lifetime of the plants
 and the quantity are accounted for, the risk of another accident is not tr
ivial.  It may not be 50-50, but it is worse than 1 in 100 even.  

The worst, however, is yet to come as the plants age and even more so, the  
waste fuel mounts up.  We just don't have any viable plant to store the was
te long enough to assure it won't be a problem.  


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It's interesting that nukes provide "district heat" in some countries.  You
 have to be close to do that and here I believe most nukes are not close to
 even small towns.  Three mile island was on a... well, island!  North Anna
 is nearest to Mineral, VA which has a population of maybe a few hundred wh
ile the county seat is a few thousand population and is some 10 miles away.
  

--  

  Rick C.

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Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On 9/18/19 9:14 PM, Rick C wrote:

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Yeah they never even figured out good answers to some of the basic  
engineering problems of the tech before they set about running the ball  
with it.

among other things that alone doesn't do much to convince the hoi polloi  
that the nuke industry doesn't actually run on hubris vs. uranium.

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Re: OT: Why is Germany so (apparently) stupid to give up nuclear power?
On 9/18/19 12:45 PM, snipped-for-privacy@downunder.com wrote:
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Folks whose other alternative is freezing in the dark (in a Siberian  
Arctic winter, no less) tend to be more realistic about these things. ;)

Cheers

Phil Hobbs

--  
Dr Philip C D Hobbs
Principal Consultant
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