Re: End of quantum computers?

It is a bold claim but not backed up by any convincing evidence.

I can believe that classical computing and in particular NN type AI can be speeded up by making some gross heuristic approximations that are usually true. Ignoring almost irrelevant noisy information may work.

Nothing can surpass an N bit quantum computer for factoring products of impossibly long primes. The whole of modern public key cryptography is predicated on that task being well beyond present day computing power. A decent length quantum register computer could change that overnight.

Dedicated hardware can always do better than general purpose computers at specific tasks but that is a different issue altogether.

Turing's Bombe or Collosus would have beaten anything less than a 386 PC at code breaking despite them having plug boards, paper tape, relays and valve logic. They were incredibly cunning designs able to short circuit the codebreaking by ruling out big chunks of the search space.

Reply to
Martin Brown
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Entirely hypothetical. My expectation is that quantum computers will never be able to factor numbers with prime factors much beyond

10^18 or so, if even that.

Jeroen Belleman

Reply to
Jeroen Belleman

I remain unconvinced that quantum computers can be made reliable enough to do anything remotely useful in the real world. OTOH they have been making real progress and today's mobile phones look like magic compared to the big iron of yesteryear. My first mainframe IBM 370/165 had a whopping 4MB of main memory and you had to get a special ticket to use more than 500k at once. Algebra systems wouldn't run in less than 2MB.

Reply to
Martin Brown

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What will probably happen is that quantum computing will fail to live up to expectations and at some point, funding will run dry.

Jeroen Belleman

Reply to
Jeroen Belleman

A bit like AI in the late 70's then. Draughts(checkers) fell to it almost immediately - chess and machine vision were much tougher nuts to crack. Things in AI research only really hotted up again after Deep Blue beat Kasparov and then again later when Alpha-Go beat the human world champion at Go under match conditions.

The latter was a feat that no-one in the field really expected to come so quickly. Not far behind that were the large language models.

The next iteration of quantum computing when it is next in fashion again might well get over the line to being truly useful (but I'm not holding my breath).

It's a bit like cheap fusion power - remaining elusively about 50 year away and has done now for over 50 years.

Reply to
Martin Brown

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