Man who tries to know everything ends up knowing nothing:
"In many ways, his hand was forced by his own system. Under the conditions of massive surveillance and censorship that have grown under Xi, the central government likely had little to no signals besides official reports to detect, such as online public conversations about the mystery pneumonia."
China is not the only problem. Even free countries like Japan and Korea (o ther than the North) listen to CCP and WHO propagandas and western medias, including some in this news groups, that all is well, and don't listen to a larmists. They just take official data as the truth, and nothing but the t rue, instead of doing their own independent research.
'The Wisdom of Crowds' by Surowiecki details very well the strengths weaknesses of global access to 'data' vs 'information'.
-- mikko
I'm weirded out by all this big brother stuff. Not just China. The following is a true story to the best of my memory. My wife has some google/amazon tablet sitting on coffee table next to me. She is not at home and tablet is off AFAIK. I waiting for something to start and trolling my TV chans. This video comes on with a women talking to her Alexia. "alexia this", answer... "alexia that" , answer.. "alexia what is the cia", answer.. "alexia, do you work for the cia?" ... no answer. same question again, "alexia, do you work for the cia?" ... no answer ~2 seconds later my wife's tablet wakes up... totally freaks me out! And says, "I don't work for the cia, I work for amazon"... (or words to that effect. It might have just said, "I work for amazon.") It was chilling!
(I want none of it... and don't take my pic with your camera either. :^)
Georg H.
(other than the North) listen to CCP and WHO propagandas and western medias , including some in this news groups, that all is well, and don't listen to alarmists. They just take official data as the truth, and nothing but the true, instead of doing their own independent research.
Listening to people who are making wild guesses isn't doing any kind of res earch.
Nobody is claiming that "all is well". South Korea now has 883 reported cas es, so their contact tracing approach wasn't thorough enough.
They are now doing what China did and locking down whole areas so that peop le who are infectious - and don't know it - have a much lower chance of inf ecting other people.
That is working in China, where there are many fewer new cases every day th an there were a week ago, but China has 50,000 cases at the moment, and the re's a way to go before they have all recovered or died.
Whether it will work as well in a less authoritarian country is an open que stion.
Italy is next country down the list - with 229 cases - and they are startin g to shut down public gatherings.
Iran is worrying - 61 reported cases isn't high, but 12 deaths does suggest that they are under-reporting. The regime is remarkably authoritarian, but even more inclined to irrational reactions than China's.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
But the death rate is about 2% (in a hospital). One approach: relax, everybody gets exposed, take the hit. Alternate is a local and world-wide social shutdown, perhaps continuing for years. In that case, how many will die, because they can't get food, or other basics?
--
Thanks,
- Win
Dan
Yes, but at what intensity? Heat also kill the virus. Just heat the patients up to 60C. Problem solved!
Decrease from what to what? Before measures went into effect, it was doubling every week. You'd need to greatly increase the doubling time (quadruple or more) before it stops being scary.
The amount of UV at sea level, under shade trees, in foggy climes, and indoors, is kinda puny. Natural UV is unlikely to be an effective limitation.
It's a bit early to say.
Has a page on the subject. 2% is a popular estimate because it's the easiest number to generate. It's also pretty much certain to be too low.
It has killed 2,699 so far.
killed some 30 million, back when the world population was a factor of three smaller. This isn't an attractive option.
It seems unlikely to continue for years. Once you have isolated the last few infectious cases there's no need to maintain a shut-down.
The efforts to create a vaccine have already produced one - which is about to be tested on ferrets. The COVID-19 seems to be unusually stable, and once we have enough vaccine to protect the whole population, shut-down is unnecessary.
Very few, because starving people don't stay shut-down, and the people maintaining the shut-down do understand this.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
Each patients has to infect more than one new patient to sustain an epidemic (R0>1).
They've typically got a week to do that before they start showing symptoms.
Your "doubling time" implies a constant and predictable rate of new infections.
Shut-down minimises the number of people an infectious patient can meet and infect before they start showing symptoms and get whisked off into isolation.
It's working well enough in Hubei Province that the plot of new cases against time is now rising much more slowly than it was a week ago. It's now looking like a logistic curve rather than the initial exponential (which did have a "doubling time").
R0 has been changed to be appreciably less than one.
True. And nobody seems to be relying on it.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
(other than the North) listen to CCP and WHO propagandas and western medias , including some in this news groups, that all is well, and don't listen to alarmists. They just take official data as the truth, and nothing but the true, instead of doing their own independent research.
That is the sort of extreme bull that I criticize you for. I have not seen anyone here try to say "all is well". We simply look at information from verifiable sources rather than what a bunch of alarmists post in chat rooms . I don't know what I am supposed to get about the infection rate from a v ideo of a lady being dragged from her car by the cops. Listening to 15 ye ar old nerds living in their mom's basement is not "doing research".
I have been concerned about this disease from day one. What is concerning me now is the mounting infection rate outside of China. In some of these c ountries they have much less capability to detect and treat the disease, so the infection rate may already be higher than reported.
Yes, I am very concerned. If this continues to spread outside of China, it won't matter what they do in China.
-- Rick C. - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging - Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
Why is it chilling that your tablet responded to its key phrase just like it is supposed to???
-- Rick C. + Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging + Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
I'd love to know how you arrive at this number. Now that the Chinese are back to requiring a test result for diagnosis, I expect both the death rate and the infection rate are under reported.
-- Rick C. -- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging -- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
That's what is happening. The numbers of new infections is dropping. The number of deaths is dropping. So the doubling number is increasing hugely.
-- Rick C. -+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging -+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
A US national public health emergency will need to be declared, and the November elections indefinitely postponed.
For safety reasons.
Or, (somewhat) more likely: "Quarantines in urban areas are to remain in effect but election continues as scheduled, the President has no authority to postpone elections without an act of Congress"
der
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Nah, couldn't happen in the USA!
Except that Trump shut down the NSC ability to respond in 2018 when he (via John Bolton) had the director of pandemic response removed and that
division shut down...
--------------- Washington Post---------------- May 10, 2018 at 1:32 p.m. PDT
The top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic has left the administration, and the global health security team he oversaw has been disbanded under a reorganization by national security adviser John Bolton.
-----------------(30)----------------
Link:
Yup, Trump is trying to protect the little guy...
John :-#(#
der
tnd
the
e not
get
their
? In
The average virus is remarkably small - about 100nm across - so Trump's pro tective instincts will be thoroughly engaged.
Maybe somebody could one of these into a petting zoo near him
They are much bigger than a virus, but small for a venomous snake.
-- Bill Sloman, Sydney
e:
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and
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protective instincts will be thoroughly engaged.
p-snake/
You have such a nice country in AU, where almost everything is trying to
kill you!
Does Australia have a similar museum (rather small I would expect) of all the AU non-poisonous animals and plants? Rather a short list I understand...
John :-#)#
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