OT: but frequently seen here - A PNAS paper on why conservatives devalue climate change and what can be done to cure them.

The PNAS is is the Proceedings of the - US - National Academy of Sciences, and it is a fairly high-prestige place to publish

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You'll probably have to pay for the full paper. I'll try to get hold of a back door copy. If I can I'll e-mail it to anybody who wants it.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman
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Look up the DOI (10.1073/pnas.1610834113) on sci-hub.ac.

Paywalled journals are a bigger threat to scientific progress than Republicans will ever be.

-- john, KE5FX

Reply to
John Miles, KE5FX

If a journal goes bust because nobody pays for the content, this won't help scientific progress either. The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences isn't going to go bust, so I happily exploited sci-hub.ac to read the full text.

It sounds as if I need to tell James Arthur that the only we can get to enjoy the climate that Bastiat and the Founding Fathers did is by burning no more fossil carbon than they did.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

Makes no difference, it's too late, the climate is in runaway and the warming can't be stopped, the morons are going to be steamed alive, and they won't be missed.

Reply to
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred

What warming?

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The real danger in the next decades is the possibility of cooling.

95F is uncomfortable. 5F is deadly.
--
John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

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Reply to
John Larkin

But Fred, if we switch to wood and stone tools *now*, we can prevent a millikelvin by 3016!

Cheers, James Arthur

Reply to
dagmargoodboat

ces, and it is a fairly high-prestige place to publish

f a back door copy. If I can I'll e-mail it to anybody who wants it.

rming can't be stopped, the morons are going to be steamed alive, and they won't be missed.

ta-tampering/

There's nothing like a little conspiracy theory to get gullible nutters lik e John Larkin excited.

Mann's "hockey stick" curve has been replicated by about a dozen independen t studies using a range of different proxies for historical temperatures. T he denialist press just loves concocting conspiracy theories about changes to official temperature measurements, not least because they go down so wel l with gullible suckers like John Larkin, but the real world doesn't play a long.

Not with an atmospheric CO2 level of 400ppm and rising.

And is regularly lethal to elderly people who don't bother to drink enough.

Unless you are warmly dressed.

Of course, one of the eventual side effects of further global warming is th at the Greenland ice sheet will slide off into the Atlantic as loads of ice

-bergs.

When the Laurentian ice-sheet did that at the end of the last ice age, it s eems to have stopped the Gulf Stream for 1300+/-10 years, making North Amer ica and Northern Europe a whole lot colder (while warming up the southern o ceans which pushed a whole lot of CO2 out of solution, raising atmospheric CO2 levels enough to finish off the ice age.

John Larkin may yet get his little ice age (though perhaps not in Californi a) while the rest of the globe warms up even faster (and has to cope with s ix metres of sea level rise).

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

Or switch to renewable electricity generation and electric cars and prevent a whole lot more.

Conservative do like to frame their arguments in terms of what has happened in the past, rather than what might happen in the future.

James Arthur is much happier contemplating dumping iron-working and coal burning than he is about thinking about solar power generation and wind turbines.

Poverty is the historical norm, and reverting to that to prevent the climate change - that he doesn't believe in - is much more to his taste than thinking about a future which is going to be different from the past he idolises.

This is exactly the kind of cognitive bias discussed by the PNAS article which prompted this thread.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

ences, and it is a fairly high-prestige place to publish

of a back door copy. If I can I'll e-mail it to anybody who wants it.

warming can't be stopped, the morons are going to be steamed alive, and the y won't be missed.

data-tampering/

ike John Larkin excited.

ent studies using a range of different proxies for historical temperatures. The denialist press just loves concocting conspiracy theories about change s to official temperature measurements, not least because they go down so w ell with gullible suckers like John Larkin, but the real world doesn't play along.

h.

that the Greenland ice sheet will slide off into the Atlantic as loads of i ce-bergs.

seems to have stopped the Gulf Stream for 1300+/-10 years, making North Am erica and Northern Europe a whole lot colder (while warming up the southern oceans which pushed a whole lot of CO2 out of solution, raising atmospheri c CO2 levels enough to finish off the ice age.

nia) while the rest of the globe warms up even faster (and has to cope with six metres of sea level rise).

This latest bombshell pretty much spells the end of mankind:

formatting link

Reply to
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred

rote:

ciences, and it is a fairly high-prestige place to publish

ld of a back door copy. If I can I'll e-mail it to anybody who wants it.

e warming can't be stopped, the morons are going to be steamed alive, and t hey won't be missed.

a-data-tampering/

like John Larkin excited.

ndent studies using a range of different proxies for historical temperature s. The denialist press just loves concocting conspiracy theories about chan ges to official temperature measurements, not least because they go down so well with gullible suckers like John Larkin, but the real world doesn't pl ay along.

ugh.

s that the Greenland ice sheet will slide off into the Atlantic as loads of ice-bergs.

it seems to have stopped the Gulf Stream for 1300+/-10 years, making North America and Northern Europe a whole lot colder (while warming up the southe rn oceans which pushed a whole lot of CO2 out of solution, raising atmosphe ric CO2 levels enough to finish off the ice age.

ornia) while the rest of the globe warms up even faster (and has to cope wi th six metres of sea level rise).

Not exactly. It's one more positive feedback. We evolved to cope with rapid climate fluctuations from ice ages to inter-glacials and back, and as a sp ecies we'll probably be able to cope with rapid global warming.

As a civilisation, the situation is less clear-cut. An advance industrial s ociety can do a lot, as long as it remains advanced and industrial.

If we wreck agriculture and create a population crash, it's going to be dif ficult for the survivors to keep the whole system running. It may be that w e aren't advanced enough to anticipate this sort of disaster - and the more retarded elements responsible for denialist propaganda and mindless inacti on will have a lot to answer for, not that anybody will have the time to wa ste on holding them responsible.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

Doomsday predictions have been a source of fame and fortune for thousands of years. Now it is "scientists" and "journalists" as well as religious finatics who are cashing in.

According to predictions, we should all be dead by now. The ice caps should be gone. Crops would all have failed. Our kids would not know about snow; well, our kids would all be dead too. The doomsdayers always do the same thing when the day-of-death arrives without incident: they move the date forward. Look it up.

One problem with conjecturing fatal climate positive feedbacks is that they haven't triggered and latched yet. Why not?

If my climate increased by 5C, I'd just save money on sweatshirts, and the ski season would be shorter. We could grow pineapples and bananas in California.

You and a few other people here are saturated with gloom, apparently hoping eagerly for worldwide disaster. Why?

Design and build something. You'll feel better.

--
John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics
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Reply to
John Larkin

:

Sciences, and it is a fairly high-prestige place to publish

old of a back door copy. If I can I'll e-mail it to anybody who wants it.

he warming can't be stopped, the morons are going to be steamed alive, and they won't be missed.

aa-data-tampering/

s like John Larkin excited.

endent studies using a range of different proxies for historical temperatur es. The denialist press just loves concocting conspiracy theories about cha nges to official temperature measurements, not least because they go down s o well with gullible suckers like John Larkin, but the real world doesn't p lay along.

ough.

is that the Greenland ice sheet will slide off into the Atlantic as loads o f ice-bergs.

it seems to have stopped the Gulf Stream for 1300+/-10 years, making North America and Northern Europe a whole lot colder (while warming up the south ern oceans which pushed a whole lot of CO2 out of solution, raising atmosph eric CO2 levels enough to finish off the ice age.

fornia) while the rest of the globe warms up even faster (and has to cope w ith six metres of sea level rise).

The climate change "Doomsday" predictions are a good deal less dramatic and immediate than the kind that religious fanatics used to go for, and rather better founded - not that John Larkin knows enough about science to realis e this.

What prediction? Cite. If it's something that has been recycled by the deni alist propaganda machine you will get jeered at.

Nobody has said that. The IPCC started off saying that they'd melt in place , which would take centuries.

Hansen has recently pointed out that the evidence from the end of the most recent ice age is that some of the ices sheets will slide off into the sea in big chunks

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and that this could happen as soon as next century.

The Arctic sea ice may be gone before then, but a lot of the Antarctic ice sheet rests on rock and the East Antarctic ice sheet is going to be there f or the foreseeable future.

Who predicted that? And where? It looks like more denialist nonsense.

That was UK kids, and what David Viner said - in 20 March 2000

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the-past-724017.html

Was

?Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past? Dr David Viner , a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the Un iversity of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become ? ??a very rare and exciting event?.

As it turns out he was wrong. What he didn't know was published in 2010

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where it was shown that ice-free conditions in the Barents and Kara Seas, n orth of Finland, push cold air south into Europe, dumping much more snow th ere than usual. Reduced Arctic sea ice means more snow in the UK (from time to time).

That does seem to a non-prediction.

In order to make this claim you need to provide a link to the original pred iction, and another to the revised prediction. I've tracked down your proba ble chain of logic in one example above - you exaggerated the prediction fr om "snowfalls will become rare and exciting events" to "Our kids would not know about snow", while including US kids into what had been a UK populatio n.

I wouldn't be particularly surprised to find that your "day-of-death" predi ction originated in some claim about reduced quality of life in Bangladesh.

A positive feedback has to have a gain of two before it can run away. The " water as a greenhouse gas positive feedback" doesn't. The "northern hemisph ere ice sheet feedback" doesn't seem to have either - but since it stops wh en all the Northern hemisphere ice has melted (which it has in the past) it isn't going to "latch" either.

If you still had any water to grow them with. Anthropogenic global warming means more water vapour in the atmosphere and more rain somewhere, but the rain doesn't always fall on the same place as it did when the climate was c ooler. At the peak if the current interglacial - from 10,500 years ago to 7 ,300 years ago - the Sahara got lots of monsoon rains, but these then decli ned and had stopped some 5,500 years ago.

Nobody is hoping for it - quite the reverse - but polly-annaish denials are n't any kind of way to make the problem go away. Getting suckered by people who make their money by digging up fossil carbon and selling it as fuel is n't an entirely responsible reaction either.

Preferably something to do with renewable energy or electric cars - more of your kids may survive if you do it right, which would be an extra bonus.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

Gee..electric cars ARE the solution. The energy required to run them is total imagination and has no need for power generated (at a loss) elsewhere... Mainly by coal-fired generators: "Water is boiled by coal burned in a thermal power plant, about 41% of all electricity is generated this way."

Reply to
Robert Baer

te:

Sciences, and it is a fairly high-prestige place to publish

old of a back door copy. If I can I'll e-mail it to anybody who wants it.

the warming can't be stopped, the morons are going to be steamed alive, and they won't be missed.

oaa-data-tampering/

ers like John Larkin excited.

ependent studies using a range of different proxies for historical temperat ures. The denialist press just loves concocting conspiracy theories about c hanges to official temperature measurements, not least because they go down so well with gullible suckers like John Larkin, but the real world doesn't play along.

enough.

g is that the Greenland ice sheet will slide off into the Atlantic as loads of ice-bergs.

e, it seems to have stopped the Gulf Stream for 1300+/-10 years, making Nor th America and Northern Europe a whole lot colder (while warming up the sou thern oceans which pushed a whole lot of CO2 out of solution, raising atmos pheric CO2 levels enough to finish off the ice age.

lifornia) while the rest of the globe warms up even faster (and has to cope with six metres of sea level rise).

and immediate than the kind that religious fanatics used to go for, and ra ther better founded - not that John Larkin knows enough about science to re alise this.

denialist propaganda machine you will get jeered at.

lace, which would take centuries.

ost recent ice age is that some of the ices sheets will slide off into the sea in big chunks

ice sheet rests on rock and the East Antarctic ice sheet is going to be the re for the foreseeable future.

-of-the-past-724017.html

iner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of th e University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become ?a very rare and exciting event?.

s, north of Finland, push cold air south into Europe, dumping much more sno w there than usual. Reduced Arctic sea ice means more snow in the UK (from time to time).

prediction, and another to the revised prediction. I've tracked down your p robable chain of logic in one example above - you exaggerated the predictio n from "snowfalls will become rare and exciting events" to "Our kids would not know about snow", while including US kids into what had been a UK popul ation.

rediction originated in some claim about reduced quality of life in Banglad esh.

he "water as a greenhouse gas positive feedback" doesn't. The "northern hem isphere ice sheet feedback" doesn't seem to have either - but since it stop s when all the Northern hemisphere ice has melted (which it has in the past ) it isn't going to "latch" either.

ing means more water vapour in the atmosphere and more rain somewhere, but the rain doesn't always fall on the same place as it did when the climate w as cooler. At the peak if the current interglacial - from 10,500 years ago to 7,300 years ago - the Sahara got lots of monsoon rains, but these then d eclined and had stopped some 5,500 years ago.

aren't any kind of way to make the problem go away. Getting suckered by pe ople who make their money by digging up fossil carbon and selling it as fue l isn't an entirely responsible reaction either.

e of your kids may survive if you do it right, which would be an extra bonu s.

Only if the electrical generation system is beefed up a lot. There was a Pr oceedings of the IEEE a decade or so ago that went into that in detail.

Your imagination does seem to be rather inventive. The argument for reducin g the amount of fossil carbon burnt as fuel does involve real facts, even i f you can't be bothered to find out what they are.

And we need to reduce that, probably to 0%. It will take a while - longer i f people don't bother thinking about what's going on.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

In the US at least, fracked natural gas is killing coal. It's just cheaper.

Coal is nasty stuff anyhow. Not from the CO2, but all the other junk.

But electric cars are silly for most people. The existing car technology is not a problem that needs to be fixed.

--
John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
picosecond timing   precision measurement  
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Reply to
John Larkin

On Dec 30, 2016, snipped-for-privacy@ieee.org wrote (in article):

"Keeping the Energy Debate Clean: How Do We Supply the World?s EnergyNeeds??,

Derek Abbott, Proceedings of the IEEE, January 2010, pages 42-66.

Behind a paywall, but:

He believes that only solar will be viable on the millennial scale, and dismisses nuclear out of hand, but clearly has not really analyzed nuclear adequately.

Circa 3000 AD, one would hazard that nuclear fusion will be practical and commonplace, and that nuclear fusion will be far better developed than circa

2000 AD, but perhaps obsolete.

Or both are obsolete, and it?s Warp Cores powered by antimatter-matter total conversion of matter to energy.

Well, I don?t want to get into the above squabble, but will say that one should always be very suspicious of computer models.

A recent article shows that global temperature has been going up and down by about 7 degrees centigrade for the last two million years, and that currently we may be at the top of the last peak:

"Evolution of global temperature over the past two million years?, Carolyn W. Snyder, Nature 13 October 2016, pages

226- 228.Fig ure 1 is the key. This article appears to be open access.

Joe Gwinn

Reply to
Joseph Gwinn

hat one

Oh, no! Another teach-the-controversy shill!

by

ntly

Those up/downs were called 'ice ages', and we're not in one. But, the way to know if we're at the 'top of the last peak' is to wait a few millenn ia. So, we'll never know that, unless we use a complex model (yes, that means a computer model... see previous paragraph).

, Carolyn

Useless, though, to ignore the present (and unprecedented) sharp rise in temperature on the basis of past climate with a major contribution - human mining of carbon and hydrocarbons- omitted.

Reply to
whit3rd

That problem can be readily solved by building many very fine and very beautiful (you won't believe how beautiful) golf resort casinos in all the very warm places that will become available when enough nutritious CO2 has been produced to make the beautiful fairway grass grow very quickly and at very low cost to absorb excess CO2. Many jobs will be created because millions of clubs and nicely appointed golf carts will be required, as well as many very high end (5 star) clubhouse dining facilities where the very finest wines, organically grown (the very healthiest and very deliciousest) fruits and vegetables as well as specially selected and meticulously dry aged steaks and prime rib roasts will be served by very highly trained and very well paid Asian and Hispanic (the very politest, extremely professional and the most attentive available under the H1B program) servers.

--
Grizzly H.
Reply to
mixed nuts

Um, H1B visas are only available for highly skilled workers. But forgetting that little detail, at least you don't accus him of hiring illegals. ;-)

Reply to
krw

I think golf is silly, but I love to stay at golf resorts. They are beautiful, the food is good, and the help usually seems happy.

Rancho Bernardo Inn in San Diego is great.

--
John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics
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Reply to
John Larkin

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