mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

Do you have a question? Post it now! No Registration Necessary

Translate This Thread From English to

Threaded View


https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

RL

Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Looks like the do-nothing case grows without limit, to trillions of
infections. That's exponential growth for ya.



--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.  
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
On 3/22/2020 2:57 PM, snipped-for-privacy@highlandsniptechnology.com wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

I've been looking over the patents for the Bird ventilator in my spare  
time, by Forrest Bird who was born not far from me in Stoughton, MA.  
Don't know if he was related to the other Bird family in this area which  
has been an asphalt roofing shingle manufacturer since the late 18th  
century.

It's a fascinating device and very clever in its relative simplicity  
using two chambers of differential pressure and a sensitive  
magnetically-clutched valve and venturi-system to sense back-pressure as  
the lungs fill and regulate inhalation volume accordingly, and continue  
to deliver pressure even if a leak develops in the system. No  
electronics, runs on 50 psi source air pressure, almost no springs or  
contacting moving parts to wear out.

Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
On 3/22/2020 4:18 PM, bitrex wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

It's sort of like one of those supercharger fuel-management gizmos, in  
the patent it says a similar valve design could be used for  
fuel-management to supercharged aircraft engines.

Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Nowadays, a small uP could do a better job. It could be interfaced,
too.



--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.  
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

This guy does a great web page.  

Pity government leaders don't read it.  

--  

  Rick C.

  - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
Has anyone posted this YouTube link yet?
Simulating an epidemic
It was posted March 27th.

Link:  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs




Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 8:42:20 PM UTC-4, mpm wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

That was a very interesting video.  Lots of good takeaways.  

--  

  Rick C.

  ++-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
snipped-for-privacy@googlegroups.com:

Quoted text here. Click to load it

  You can officially classify me as a wandering dot!

Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
snipped-for-privacy@decadence.org wrote in news:r5p3e7$1s5c$1
@gioia.aioe.org:

Quoted text here. Click to load it

  Note too that none of those have a Trump factor slider in the  
simulations.

  That would generate sub-sliders for "Idiots who listened to Trump",  
and such.

Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
On Sunday, 22 March 2020 16:00:43 UTC-4, Ricketty C  wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
337092b56
  

Agreed. Good site links. Good questions and resources.  
Great virus calculator. http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

Serious leadership failures to ignore good science and understanding of exp
onentials.  

Relying on Generals and WHO was a mistake, it needed a broader task force..
 Certainly more Engineers in governing.
  
Latency has consequences to any closed-loop system with instability and lac
k of expertise.

Of the G8 only Japan succeeded with early detection, rapid response (as did
 all other Asian countries relative to G8). As a Test Engineer for 40 yrs a
mong other hats, I understand why.  The best test methods reduce cost with  
Root Cause Analysis improves defect rate.  But a better design (diet /exerc
ise) helps to improve immunity.

Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
On Fri, 12 Jun 2020 09:34:56 -0700 (PDT), Anthony Stewart

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Climate change is over. Impeachment is over. The virus is over. The
only topic for discussion now is racism and defunding police.

Gotta keep up!

--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing   precision measurement  

We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

None of those are resolved and are all systemic issues of ignorance to an u
nsustainable lifestyle and global toxic waste.  A leader who doesn't know t
he meaning of Sociopath (blames everyone else) or Nepotism or gets things d
one by Bully or Bribes or pandering his family and delegates.  

I guarantee he will never accept blame for anything and never believes he l
ost an argument (signs of a Sociopath).
  
What's the next global disaster?  Keep up ?

I can think of a few that will silence the racism issues with bigger proble
ms.

  It has already been done before, yet Japan survived and is much stronger  
than Detroit.

Unless these issues are promoted to take action.  

We are no better than armchair movie critics.

I'm going to do some yardwork.

Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
On Fri, 12 Jun 2020 12:26:09 -0700 (PDT), Anthony Stewart

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Excellent. Don't take a radio.



--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc

Science teaches us to doubt.

We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
On Saturday, June 13, 2020 at 4:15:32 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
be9337092b56
exponentials.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
e.. Certainly more Engineers in governing.
Quoted text here. Click to load it
lack of expertise.
Quoted text here. Click to load it
did all other Asian countries relative to G8). As a Test Engineer for 40 yr
s among other hats, I understand why.  The best test methods reduce cost wi
th Root Cause Analysis improves defect rate.  But a better design (diet /ex
ercise) helps to improve immunity.
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Not really. The extra CO2 we've put in the atmosphere - currently 416 ppm,  
or 50% more than the normal inter-glacial level - will equilibrate back to  
normal with an 800 year time constant once we stop burning fossil carbon fo
r fuel (which isn't going to happen any time soon).

Quoted text here. Click to load it

The Republicans decided to ignore Trump's high crime and misdemeanors. He's
 still an irresponsible crook, so it's up to the voters to get rid of him i
n November.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

has his approval rating down to 41.1% - it has been dropping steadily since
 the start of April as the extent of the US Covid-19 disaster started to be
come obvious.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

New cases per day in the US are rising again, 27,221 today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The disease is still spreading across the US.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Trump thinks he can play the right-wing authoritarian card. That doesn't se
em to be working either.
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

If John Larkin's head gets any further up where it's at, it will take a pro
ctologist to get it out.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 1:45:40 PM UTC-4, legg wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
7092b56

That guy doesn't know much about epidemiology and more importantly immunolo
gy. For instance the idiot thinks mutation is a function of susceptible pop
ulation size. The idiot has no idea of the fact that each replication prese
nts an opportunity for mutation, and within just a single individual there  
are billions if not trillions of replications. A lot of his graphs are date
d. He doesn't know much about mathematical modeling of infectious disease,  
he ignores the fact that 99% of people recover and the course of illness is
 relatively short, 99% of these people don't require hospitalization, there
fore his death estimates are wildly inflated. His education is in business,
 he's an ignorant sensationalist looking to make a buck somehow. It's a was
te of time reading his stupid crap. This misinformation belongs in the same
 toilet as the chloroquine and vaccine will be ready in 12 months fiction.

Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
On 3/22/2020 4:43 PM, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

The max theoretical mutation rate of a propagating RNA virus is about  
proportional to the inverse of its genome size; it doesn't have  
error-correction ability so any faster than that and the number of  
sequence alterations that are rapidly lethal quickly goes up and it  
doesn't live long enough to spread.

Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Here's a nice article about coronavirus mutations and different strains
going around:

https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/

--  
mikko

Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
On 3/23/2020 3:46 AM, Mikko OH2HVJ wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Very interesting and great detective work! Thanks for the link.

Re: mitigation vs suppression strategy Covid19
On 3/22/2020 4:43 PM, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

I don't follow his argument that mitigation/social distancing would make  
novel infectious mutations more likely to cause problems down the road,  
genetic drift happens from random sampling as the virus moves from  
person to person. social distancing would be expected to increase  
pressure from genetic drift I'd think, genetic drift tends to decrease  
population diversity not increase it.

Site Timeline