Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot

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By Day 23, which is 2 days after the second shot, there is a 60% drop in ho
spitalizations among vaccinated people aged 60-plus, Maccabi revealed after
 monitoring 50,777 patients. It compared their hospitalization rate at that
 point with their hospitalization rate soon after receiving the vaccine, us
ing 7-day moving averages.

They are talking about Pfizer-BioNTech here. This is strong evidence the se
cond shot administered on schedule (21 days) makes a huge difference.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-sees-60-drop-in-hospitalizations-for-o
ver-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On Sun, 24 Jan 2021 15:38:13 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs

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I heard from a schoolmate who lives in a retirement community in
Florida. He says that, in his group, the second shot has bad
reactions, so some people don't want it.


Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On Monday, January 25, 2021 at 2:29:07 PM UTC-5, John Larkin wrote:
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 hospitalizations among vaccinated people aged 60-plus, Maccabi revealed af
ter monitoring 50,777 patients. It compared their hospitalization rate at t
hat point with their hospitalization rate soon after receiving the vaccine,
 using 7-day moving averages.  
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 second shot administered on schedule (21 days) makes a huge difference.  
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r-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/
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Within reason, most  "bad reactions" are a good thing, it means you're havi
ng a strong immune response. You want as much fever and fatigue as you can  
get.

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On Monday, January 25, 2021 at 1:17:28 PM UTC-8, Fred Bloggs wrote:
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in hospitalizations among vaccinated people aged 60-plus, Maccabi revealed  
after monitoring 50,777 patients. It compared their hospitalization rate at
 that point with their hospitalization rate soon after receiving the vaccin
e, using 7-day moving averages.  
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he second shot administered on schedule (21 days) makes a huge difference.
  
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for-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/  
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ing a strong immune response. You want as much fever and fatigue as you can
 get.

Many healthcare workers don't even want to get the FIRST shot - and they ha
ve to deal with COVID-positive patients.

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On Wednesday, January 27, 2021 at 12:41:36 PM UTC+11, Flyguy wrote:
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p in hospitalizations among vaccinated people aged 60-plus, Maccabi reveale
d after monitoring 50,777 patients. It compared their hospitalization rate  
at that point with their hospitalization rate soon after receiving the vacc
ine, using 7-day moving averages.  
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 the second shot administered on schedule (21 days) makes a huge difference
.  
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s-for-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/  
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aving a strong immune response. You want as much fever and fatigue as you c
an get.
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have to deal with COVID-positive patients.

I suppose that in the US, you can be clinically insane and still work as he
alth care worker. It's hard to explain Flyguy's claim on any other basis.

What's he's probably saying is that he has misinterpreted some health care  
workers reservations about the side effects of vaccination, which are less  
drastic than the clinical death that Covid-19 can deliver.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On 27/01/2021 12:59 pm, Bill Sloman wrote:
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I can't believe I'm saying this. Flyguy is correct - although it is a  
minority (but still a significant number) of health care workers who  
don't want the jab. Most of those because the approval process was  
rushed (but hopefully it is still OK because the original process is  
ultra cautious - they just don't want to be the test subjects)

Larkin's post also raises a question. The strong reaction is the immune  
response to the stimulus of the vaccination. *speculation* it may be  
possible to test the oldies for antibodies and if antibodies are present  
skip the second dose (on the basis that the oldies life expectancy is  
shorter anyway and skipping a second dose to enhance long term immunity  
may be a reasonable strategy.

It would be nice to know how long immunity lasts first though

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On Thursday, January 28, 2021 at 3:32:09 PM UTC+11, david eather wrote:
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op in hospitalizations among vaccinated people aged 60-plus, Maccabi reveal
ed after monitoring 50,777 patients. It compared their hospitalization rate
 at that point with their hospitalization rate soon after receiving the vac
cine, using 7-day moving averages.  
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e the second shot administered on schedule (21 days) makes a huge differenc
e.  
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ns-for-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/  
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 having a strong immune response. You want as much fever and fatigue as you
 can get.  
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ey have to deal with COVID-positive patients.  
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s health care worker. It's hard to explain Flyguy's claim on any other basi
s.  
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are workers reservations about the side effects of vaccination, which are l
ess drastic than the clinical death that Covid-19 can deliver.  
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So I'll revert to my "clinically insane" explanation, though being patholog
ically nervous need not be disabling enough to get you committed to a lunat
ic asylum
  
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Antibodies aren't the whole of the immune response, and antibody titre isn'
t any kind of proxy for other defensive reactions. It is easy and cheap to  
measure, so it is popular, but it isn't anything like the whole story.

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The most probable answer is for life, but only to the strain you get immune
 to. Flu mutates fast enough for this to be irrelevant. Covid-19 is more st
able, but it is clearly mutating, and some - very few - people  who have de
veloped immunity to one strain have got infected (if none too seriously) by
 another.

Sadly, the most probable answer isn't the one that sells best in the tabloi
ds.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On 28/01/2021 04:32, david eather wrote:
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I reckon that once the number of doses delivered has exceeded 10M any  
borderline worries will have been identified. Notably a handful of very  
allergic to everything people who cannot have the jab without risking an  
allergic reaction. None of them came to any permanent harm though.

I'd be prepared to take any of the major vaccines now if offered though  
I would prefer the Pfizer one if I could get it. Their reporting of  
Phase 3 trials is more transparent than the other players in the game.

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We will only be able to find that out experimentally. Naturally acquired  
immunity to Covid-19 through catching it seems to last about 6 months.  
Some UK medics who had it in March/April/May are seeing reinfection in  
this second wave.

Immunity to other human coronaviruses typically lasts about a year. It  
remains to be seen just how well the various vaccines work in practice.

Also how much sterilising immunity (if any) the vaccines confer on those  
who have been vaccinated as opposed to merely preventing disease  
symptoms showing and significantly reducing deaths.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On Wednesday, January 27, 2021 at 11:32:09 PM UTC-5, david eather wrote:
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op in hospitalizations among vaccinated people aged 60-plus, Maccabi reveal
ed after monitoring 50,777 patients. It compared their hospitalization rate
 at that point with their hospitalization rate soon after receiving the vac
cine, using 7-day moving averages.  
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e the second shot administered on schedule (21 days) makes a huge differenc
e.  
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ns-for-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/  
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 having a strong immune response. You want as much fever and fatigue as you
 can get.  
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ey have to deal with COVID-positive patients.  
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s health care worker. It's hard to explain Flyguy's claim on any other basi
s.  
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are workers reservations about the side effects of vaccination, which are l
ess drastic than the clinical death that Covid-19 can deliver.  
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Most of these objectors work in nursing homes which puts them on the low en
d. They're too ignorant to "know" what they do or do not want. Their opinio
n does not matter. They either get vaccinated or look for another professio
n.

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No *speculation* to it. The vaccine is accompanied by an adjuvant which is  
designed to redline the immune response.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunologic_adjuvant

Incredible idea that the researchers should attempt to quantify antibody ti
ters!

First dose mRNA produces antibodies in okay titer, but it's nothing compare
d to what the booster induces in a pre-sensitized vaccinnee. Can we say 100
0-fold increase?


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Fantasize much?

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On 27/01/2021 01:41, Flyguy wrote:
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The original Pfizer data now published in full shows quite clearly that  
the vaccine switches on quite abruptly about 10 days after injection and  
continues to improve things out to about day 21. There is no evidence at  
all that the second jab does anything at all to affect short to medium  
term immunity (it may well extend the longevity of any immunity though).

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

You want figure 3 graph of vaccinated vs control cohort infections.

Most other vaccines they use an interval around 8 weeks. 21 days was the  
*shortest* period that Pfizer thought would be fully effective.
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I heard from a schoolmate who lives in a retirement community in
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Only in some superstitious backwater like the USA could that happen.

UK medics are very happy to get vaccinated having seen what Covid can do  
to patients. A fair number of medics have had Covid already and a few  
unlucky ones have had it twice. Our government has made a total mess of  
controlling the Covid virus and we passed 100k dead from it yesterday.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On Wednesday, January 27, 2021 at 8:10:20 AM UTC-5, Martin Brown wrote:
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s-for-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/  
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That data is inapplicable. Maybe you have trouble reading the report form I
srael.  The data compares the very large group of over 50,000 against itsel
f. The comparison of interest in this case is rate of hospitalization pre-  
and post- receiving booster shot at specified 21- day interval. The data un
ambiguously indicate a massive 60% drop in hospitalizations within 2 days o
f receiving the booster. That might not sound like much to you, but it's a  
very major, major relief to the hospitals.

Two things you Brits are mindlessly defending : 1) your bedlam of a politic
al structure and their idiotic plan to delay the second shot indefinitely,  
and 2) idiotic attempts to salvage the horrendously poor performance of the
 so-called Oxford vaccine.

I'm guessing Oxford is some kind of point of national pride there. Well gue
ss what? The vaccine group is not so. Get over it. And the time has long si
nce passed when anyone looks to U.K. as paradigm for doings things smartly.


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Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On 27/01/2021 14:37, Fred Bloggs wrote:
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The original Pfizer data now published in full shows quite clearly that
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They also say in the data release that the same reduction was true from  
days 13 through 21 namely a 60% reduction. The second jab did SFA.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/how-well-does-the-vaccine-work-israels-real-world-stats-can-be-globes-guide/

I quote "Maccabi reported that the rate of infection decreased from  
about 40 out of 100,000 people in the first 12 days after vaccination to  
about 15 per 100,000 on days 13 to 21 - a 60% reduction"

It is you who are reading only the headlines and then shouting PANIC!

It is disappointing that it doesn't reduce hospitalisations by a larger  
factor in this age group. Perhaps because the immune systems in the very  
elderly are just not up to it. Be interesting to see by the age stats.

Pfizer Phase 3 trial and Israel are using different definitions of  
infected with Covid too. So you are not comparing like with like.

Pfizer was Covid symptom(s) and PCR+
Israel was Covid symptom(s) or referred by test & trace and PCR+

They will conflate about 80% of asymptomatic cases as well (assuming  
that their test & trace works unlike the UKs pathetic "world beating"  
failure). I can't find their figures for Covid symptom(s) & PCR+
(but I'd be surprised if they didn't have them - UK does)

Finding out what proportion of vaccinated people are asymptomatic  
carriers of the disease is now incredibly important to determine how  
quickly or slowly we can relax the now draconian lockdown restrictions.

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I support their delay strategy. It is by far the best decision this  
idiotic government of halfwits has made in a very long time. They have  
got just about everything else wrong dithering then locking down a  
fortnight too late and unlocking a week to early on every occasion.

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I don't think the AZ Oxford vaccine is anything like as good as Pfizer.  
Best I can determine it is in the 55% efficacy range for over 60's but I  
find their published data rather more impenetrable than Pfizer's.

It will be a bit of a disappointment if the Pfizer vaccine in the real  
world has an efficacy as low as the Israeli data seems to imply. But a  
factor of 3 reduction in hospitalisations would still help a lot.

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This still holds true however much Pfizer may want to sell twice as much  
vaccine. Protecting 2N people to 60% is better than protecting N to 66%.

The second jab may well be essential for longer term immunity but right  
now we are in the middle of a purely tactical battle against the virus.  
Preventing unnecessary deaths from healthcare systems collapsing is far  
more important than following the license terms of the vaccine.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot

[snip vaccine discussion]

A different approach is to prevent cv infection entirely. HEPA filters are  
close to 100% effective in removing virus particles from the airstream as  
shown in the links below.  

(TinyURL is used to prevent wrap, and the original URL is shown in  
brackets.)

1. How does HEPA filtration work?

https://tinyurl.com/y6x65lku

(https://www.vaniman.com/do-hepa-air-purifiers-filter-out-the-covid-19-
virus/)

2. NASA article: "Submicron and Nanoparticulate Matter Removal"

https://tinyurl.com/y2acurof

(https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20170005166/downloads/20170005166.pdf )

3. Can HEPA Air Purifiers Capture the Coronavirus?

https://tinyurl.com/y7gh5yuk

(https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/blog/can-hepa-air-purifiers-capture-
coronavirus/)

The solution is a wearable HEPA filter available on Amazon Canada.

The BROAD HEPA filter provides positive pressure in the mask to
avoid breathing your own CO2 contaminated air, and the HEPA filter
eliminates the virus particles from the airstream. The positive pressure in  
the mask prevents outside virus particles from entering.

https://tinyurl.com/y2ajzw8v

(https://www.amazon.ca/AirPro-Rechargeable-Electrical-Purifying-
Respirator/dp/B07YWLBVF2/)

It is also available on Amazon USA.


--  
The best designs occur in the theta state. - sw

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot

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A big problem with vaccines is you don't know if you are part of the  
population that is not protected, and there is no way to find out. To  
paraphrase Dirty Harry, "Do you feel lucky?"

The BROAD HEPA filter system reduces this uncertainty to zero, or very  
close to it. This puts you in far better control of your future.  

An additional problem is vaccines only work on the virus they are designed  
for, and may have little effect if the virus mutates. This is happening  
now. Also, the vaccine may only work for a limited time, then fade away.

The HEPA filter traps all viruses and is effective on other viruses, such  
as Zika, Ebola, Herpes, the common cold, and all the other airborne viruses  
and bacteria that bedevil humanity. The HEPA filter works on all age groups  
and classes of people. A face mask provides additional protection against  
airborne viruses if someone coughs or sneezes in your face.

Of course, you still have to follow standard procedures such as washing  
your hands and avoid touching your face and eyes.

It is easy to add a small clip to attach the hose to the side of a standard  
face mask so you can change the mask when it get wet from the moisture in  
your breath.

With all these benefits, I don't see why people even bother with the risk  
of vaccines.

--  
The best designs occur in the theta state. - sw

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On Friday, January 29, 2021 at 10:09:12 AM UTC+11, Steve Wilson wrote:
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You can forget to put on your mask, or put it on wrong.

Once you've been vaccinated, you stay vaccinated. The endless speculation a
bout the immune system  "forgetting" that it has been exposed to the vaccin
e is just speculation. Mostly you end up immune for life, but the bug you'v
e been immunised against may mutate into something your immune system doesn
't recognise.

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 of vaccines.

The risks of vaccines are pretty small. The risk of forgetting to put on yo
ur mask, or off putting it on wrong are rather higher.

And you can vaccinate other people, which helps even more. Look up herd imm
unity sometime - anti-vaxxers do their level best to prevent herd immunity,
 but enough people do understand the idea to make this project unpopular.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On 29/01/2021 02:13, Bill Sloman wrote:
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That doesn't hold for any of the endemic human coronaviruses so I see no  
reason why it should hold for Covid-19 either. It seems highly likely  
that immunity will wane in the same way that it does for those who have  
had it and recovered. Medics in the UK are catching it a second time now!

It might not be so severe due to other longer lasting immune response  
mechanisms but you will still be able to catch it again after a while.  
That period of protection is only six month for natural Covid immunity.  
The vaccines should do better than that but by how much?

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If you haven't been trained in use of PPE you will almost certainly make  
mistakes that will allow the virus to catch you out. Even trained  
professionals can get it wrong. The BBC interviewing mortuary attendants  
in a hospital (wearing what looked to me inadequate PPE for the job they  
were doing anyway) asked a question about how they felt burst into tears  
and touched their eyes with potentially contaminated gloved hands.

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I'm not sure how well herd immunity will work with coronavirus. The  
latest Israeli data for the Pfizer vaccine is consistent with something  
like 20-30% remaining infected PCR+ but as asymptomatic carriers.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On Friday, January 29, 2021 at 8:04:23 PM UTC+11, Martin Brown wrote:
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<snip>

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Covid-19 is a mutating in the same sort of way that flu does - if a lot less rapidly - and the endemic corona virus can be expected to mutate at much the same rate.
The examples who caught Covid-19 a second time do seem to have caught a different strain. If you natural immunity chose to recognise a chunk of the virus which was big enough to be likely  to get bent out of shape by a mutation, you are out of luck.

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If the strain you catch is different enough from the strain that provoked the original immune response.

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Why? Some aim to provoke an immune response to a highly conserved feature of the virus, but we've been trying to do that with flu for years, and it hasn't worked yet.

<snip>

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The PCR test makes multiple copies of virus fragments, and detects these fragments.

It's known that you keep on shedding Covid19 fragments long after your immune system has shredded every last actual viral particle.

So the PCR test can give a false positive long after you  could infect anybody else.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On 29/01/2021 15:18, Bill Sloman wrote:
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We know that antibodies to Covid are back to baseline in around 6 months  
(faster than is the case for the other common cold coronaviruses).

My friend was a convalescent plasma donor for a while but they were no  
longer any use after about three months. Insufficient antibodies to be  
of any therapeutic value (seems it didn't really work anyway).

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Even when it is the same strain. Common cold research laboratory did a  
fair amount of research on this in the 1970's and chose coronavirus  
colds because they were more stable than the rhinoviruses. Same strain  
can reinfect after about 12 months (within the limits of their  
experimental setup at the time - they didn't have genomic sequencing).

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Because the human immune system seems to forget them after a while.  
Perhaps because it recognises RNA viruses are less stable and so the old  
antibodies cease to be relevant after a while.

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It could be that they are shedding RNA but not infective but equally it  
isn't safe to make that assumption until we know for certain. The fact  
that 30% of the population are asymptomatic carriers of this virus makes  
me inclined to think that the vaccines will put more people into that  
category rather than completely preventing them from catching it.

The upper respiratory tract isn't subject to the full force of our  
immune system and so can potentially still be colonised by Covid.  
However, the lungs are much better connected to the immune system.

We urgently need more data as to how good the protection provided is for  
each of these vaccines in the real world. Critically we need to know how  
much sterilising immunity they confer on those vaccinated.

Not becoming fatally ill is a very big improvement but not catching it  
in the first place and ceasing transmission would be much much better.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On Saturday, January 30, 2021 at 4:02:29 AM UTC+11, Martin Brown wrote:
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That's one - easily monitored - aspect of the immune system. It has been cl
aimed here that antibody titres are proxy for all the other aspects of the  
immune system, but without supporting evidence. The immune system is pretty
 elaborate, and the claim strikes me as decidedly implausible.

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So what.

 mechanisms but you will still be able to catch it again after a while.  
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So they didn't know how similar the re-infecting strain was to the one that
 caused the original infection.

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y. The vaccines should do better than that but by how much?  
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How on earth is the human immune system going to be able to recognise an RN
A virus as different from a DNA virus?

What the immune system recognises are proteins - which fold up into fairly  
consistent shapes which are determined by the sequence of amino-acids dicta
ted by the RNA or DNA string in the virus genome.

Both kinds of genome generate proteins, and that's what the immune system r
ecognises.

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se fragments.  
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But knowing for certain takes a lot more work than running a PCR test, and  
nobody seems to have done it yet.

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us makes  me inclined to think that the vaccines will put more people into  
that  
category rather than completely preventing them from catching it.  

Why? The fact that 30% of the population can get on top of the virus before
 they have enough of the virus in their system to show symptoms doesn't say
 anything about the progress of the disease in a vaccinated patient. Asympt
omatic carriers are less effective at spreading the virus than people who g
o on to develop symptoms - vaccinated patients should get rid of any invadi
ng virus even faster, but it may take them a day so get enough antibodies a
nd killer T-cells into the blood stream .
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Probably none. If every vaccine kept the immune system cranked up to war em
ergency level against every potential threat, there wouldn't be enough room
 left in the blood stream for the red blood cells
  
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n the first place and ceasing transmission would be much much better.  

Blocking transmission is what vaccines are useful for in epidemics.

They don't have to block it completely - the crucial capacity is the one to
 reduce the chance of passing on the infection below one.  Ideally, well be
low one.

Reducing it to zero would be nice, but it would be icing on the cake.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Re: Israel sees 60% drop in hospitalizations for age 60-plus 3 weeks after 1st shot
On Sunday, 24 January 2021 at 15:38:18 UTC-8, Fred Bloggs wrote:
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hospitalizations among vaccinated people aged 60-plus, Maccabi revealed aft
er monitoring 50,777 patients. It compared their hospitalization rate at th
at point with their hospitalization rate soon after receiving the vaccine,  
using 7-day moving averages.  
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second shot administered on schedule (21 days) makes a huge difference.  
...

Since there is a 3-10 day delay between symptom onset and hospitalization t
ogether with a 2-14 day delay between infection and symptoms this is strong
 evidence that the second shot is not involved.

Since there is also a delay between vaccination and developing immunity the
 second shot would probably not have any effect on hospitalizations until a
t least 2-4 weeks after being given.

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