COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best

Do you have a question? Post it now! No Registration Necessary

Translate This Thread From English to

Threaded View
I recall how 9 months ago many were in pretty much complete denial of the s
eriousness of this disease.  Predictions included forecasts of a quarter mi
llion US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off wel
l ahead of schedule.  The number of people maimed by this disease is much h
igher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.  

So how many still deny that this is a very serious disease and needs to be  
addressed as such?  I get that many in the world and in particular in the U
S are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe those w
ith ulterior motives.  But in this group it is hard to say people can't und
erstand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets o
ut of hand when we stop taking protective measures.  

So is this group still populated by so many denialists?  Or have people lea
rned from others' mistakes?  

--  

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On 2020/11/28 5:59 p.m., Rick C wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

What a bunch of people are forgetting is a large part of the reason for  
lockdowns, masks, etc. is not to infringe on their liberty, but to keep  
hospitals from being overwhelmed by cases.

That is pretty much how it goes - folks either respect the disease and  
wear masks and practice social distancing or the health care system  
breaks down in their area...

John

Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 1:14:13 PM UTC+11, John Robertson wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
he seriousness of this disease. Predictions included forecasts of a quarter
 million US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off  
well ahead of schedule. The number of people maimed by this disease is much
 higher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
 be addressed as such? I get that many in the world and in particular in th
e US are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe thos
e with ulterior motives. But in this group it is hard to say people can't u
nderstand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets
 out of hand when we stop taking protective measures.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
learned from others' mistakes?  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Places like Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan illus
trate the fact that if you take the disease seriously enough - and that doe
s seem to mean vigorous contact tracing and pre-empltive isolation of peopl
e who might have got infected for 14 days from the date of the contact with
 somebody now known to be infectious - you can eliminate it from your commu
nity, and deal with new infections coming in from outside - quarantine brea
kdown - before they infect more than few people.

It makes a mess of your economy for a couple of months, but it save quite a
 few lives and can let you re-open your economy relatively early. The US an
d most of Europe is going to need a vaccine before it can do this. It looks
 as if I'm going to be able to spend Christmas Day with my brothers extende
d family - five kids, five partners, about a dozen grand-kids and a bunch o
f in-laws.  

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On 29/11/20 01:59, Rick C wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Predictions... The denialists will
  - deny their denial
  - find (more or less spurious) reasons why their opinion wasn't wrong


Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best

Quoted text here. Click to load it


Quoted text here. Click to load it

Hpefully they will all dies from self infection and not pass it on to  
too many people.

--  
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus


Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On 29/11/20 11:16, TTman wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it


Quoted text here. Click to load it

I hope they won't infect innocent bystanders.

I wouldn't wish that horrible slow death (or worse, long covid)
on anybody.

The "Typhoid Mary" experience may be a lesson we have to relearn.

Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 6:32:11 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

I saw a video the other day of a heavily PPE attired doctor working on a COVID patient from the patient's pov.  The subtext was what the patient saw his last few hours on earth.  

At least one of the idiots here makes a big deal of not being afraid of the disease, as if not fearing an ugly, horrific death was a goal to achieve.  

--  

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 10:16:59 PM UTC+11, TTman wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

They don't have to pass it on to all that many people to sustain the epidem
ic. 70% of infected people don't infect anybody else, but some of the remai
ning 30% do a heroic job - 2% of infectees are responsible for about 20% of
 the next round of infections. Some do even better.

Trump's White House staff have had  a lot of Covid-19 infections.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On Saturday, November 28, 2020 at 8:59:21 PM UTC-5, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com
 wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
 seriousness of this disease. Predictions included forecasts of a quarter m
illion US deaths by the end of this year and we managed to pull that off we
ll ahead of schedule. The number of people maimed by this disease is much h
igher than that and ever growing at increasing rates.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
e addressed as such? I get that many in the world and in particular in the  
US are not bright enough to understand the numbers and often believe those  
with ulterior motives. But in this group it is hard to say people can't und
erstand the nature of exponential growth and how rapidly the disease gets o
ut of hand when we stop taking protective measures.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
arned from others' mistakes?  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
It is not "denialists" but rather people that ask whether there should be a
 public discussion about the tradeoffs between liberty and safety.  Whether
 the government should be allowed to make mandates that destroy businesses  
that would otherwise be able to survive if people could make their own deci
sions about going out in public or not.


The grand irony is that there has been a complete shift in attitude  within
 the left......

I remember two of the lefts great battle cries were:
1. keep the government out of my bedroom
2. Its my body.

Logic would dictate that those who chanted those things in the past would b
e the ones saying  
1. I will invite over to my house whoever I want
2. Its my body and I will wear I mask if I feel like it.

But alas, we live in a world where everything is twisted.

As I understand, in Finland the government cannot mandate the wearing of ma
sks by anyone , even in stores and on public transportation.  The Finns hav
e recognized that there are certain lines that , if crossed, will lead to a
 tryranny that is just too great.


Quoted text here. Click to load it

Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On 29/11/20 12:55, Brent Locher wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

I am very happy to tradeoff my liberty for your safety.
Are you happy with that tradeoff?

Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 8:43:40 AM UTC-5, Tom Gardner wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
be a public discussion about the tradeoffs between liberty and safety.
Quoted text here. Click to load it

In other words, you are willing to restrict your own liberty at your own di
scretion and are OK with others restricting their liberty at their own disc
retion?  I think we are on the same page.  By all means, if you are living  
in sheer terror over catching Corona -virus then stay home.....I will not c
ompel you to go out whether it is because you fear catching it or if your f
ear spreading it.....by all mean stay home!  

Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On 29/11/20 15:01, Brent Locher wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

I agree with that strawman proposition.

Now, how about the question I asked: my putting you in danger?


Quoted text here. Click to load it

More strawman points.

I'm not living in terror of it, despite having many of the
indicators for a poor prognosis if I catch it (male, age,
A Rh+ blood, taking ACE inhibitors).

But if my mother catches it, she will almost certainly die
of it.

I'm not happy that other people don't give a shit about that.

Now, back to the question of whether it is acceptable that
I discharge a gun in your direction and claim that I am
asserting my liberty or somesuch nonsense. Would that be
acceptable to you?


Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On Sun, 29 Nov 2020 07:01:50 -0800 (PST), Brent Locher

Quoted text here. Click to load it

There is a lot of sheer terror going around. It's contageous.

Rational assessment of risk, not so much.

--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc   trk

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.  
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 8:28:44 AM UTC-8, John Larkin wrote:

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Oh, there's rational assessment, all right.   That's what the Trump
administration keeps behind closed doors, with folk at CDC kept
away from reporters.

As for terror, we've heard that before
Larkin Syndrome: perceiving fear, hysteria, panic in every situation

Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Quoted text here. Click to load it


https://justthenews.com/nation/economy/nearly-one-third-small-businesses-new-jersey-have-closed-beginning-pandemic

Crime and drug deaths and suicides are up.

San Francisco has had 160 coronavirus deaths this year, many among
people close to end of life. And about 500 deaths from fentanyl.

Fear and panic are not good management strategies.


--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc   trk

The cork popped merrily, and Lord Peter rose to his feet.  
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On 30/11/20 16:16, John Larkin wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Quoted text here. Click to load it

The common wisdom over here is that covid is speeding
up many transitions that were happening anyway. Death
of the high street, transition away from cash, etc.


Quoted text here. Click to load it

Yup. The real measure isn't covid deaths but the excess
deaths.

Plus, arguably more importantly, the lives ruined by
"long covid"


Quoted text here. Click to load it

We don't have the prescription opiod problem to anything
like the same extent as in the US.


Quoted text here. Click to load it

Pollyanna-ish and head-in-the-sand strategies are equally
bad.

Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On 11/30/2020 3:05 PM, Tom Gardner wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Americans seem to only rally to a cause reliably when there's some 3rd  
world country being bombed on fabricated intel to watch on CNN.



Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 10:01:56 AM UTC-5, Brent Locher wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
d be a public discussion about the tradeoffs between liberty and safety.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
discretion and are OK with others restricting their liberty at their own di
scretion? I think we are on the same page. By all means, if you are living  
in sheer terror over catching Corona -virus then stay home.....I will not c
ompel you to go out whether it is because you fear catching it or if your f
ear spreading it.....by all mean stay home!

You seem to not understand the issues go beyond trying to protect yourself.
  There is no way to do that absolutely unless you have a couple of years f
ood supply and everything else you need to not go out at all.  The reason f
or the masks and the distance is to minimize the spread of the disease and  
prevent it from becoming the massive pandemic it has.  But there are so man
y who disregard the warnings and now we are all paying the price of not hav
ing access to many things we could have if we had simply responded to the d
isease as we should have.  

A person has to have a very limited view of the disease to think giving eve
ryone a choice of risking not only their lives, but the lives of others is  
an essential act of liberty.  

I suppose your country has no laws about speeding or driving drunk either?  
 Where are your liberties on those issues?  It's precisely the same deal, l
ess freedom for everyone to prevent a few deaths.  

--  

Rick C.

+- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 11:55:31 PM UTC+11, Brent Locher wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
om wrote:  

<snip>

Quoted text here. Click to load it
masks by anyone , even in stores and on public transportation. The Finns ha
ve recognized that there are certain lines that , if crossed, will lead to  
a tyranny that is just too great.

Finland was doing well - their Covid-19 death rate is still only 61 per mil
lion - but they are having a nasty second wave, and may have to re-think wh
ere they draw the line on "tyranny".

Wearing a face mask is an irritation, but if it slow down the spread of Cov
id-19, it's worth putting up with. Ending up dead because some clown decide
d that compulsory face masks was "too tyrannical" strikes me as an undesira
ble outcome.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Re: COVID Near Term Future is Bleak at Best
On Sunday, November 29, 2020 at 9:19:09 AM UTC-5, Bill Sloman wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
.com wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
f masks by anyone , even in stores and on public transportation. The Finns  
have recognized that there are certain lines that , if crossed, will lead t
o a tyranny that is just too great.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
illion - but they are having a nasty second wave, and may have to re-think  
where they draw the line on "tyranny".  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
ovid-19, it's worth putting up with. Ending up dead because some clown deci
ded that compulsory face masks was "too tyrannical" strikes me as an undesi
rable outcome.  
Quoted text here. Click to load it


When evaluating trade-offs among a 5 million population pool (Finland) it d
oes not boil down to dead (all 5 million die) or alive (nobody dies) and us
ing such language as die and live is a simple way of looking at it.  When d
ealing with 5 million people it becomes a statistical thing.  Maybe the Fin
ns are willing to suffer the premature deaths of several thousand people to
 ensure that tyranny does not gain root in their society.  I think that is  
noble and brave and not foolish.  If the death rate goes up to 10% then sur
e, I would rethink the tradeoff.  But at this point the death rate is not h
igh enough to warrant the loss of liberty that we are suffering.
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Site Timeline