Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say

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https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/04/18/1836218/claim-that-covid-19-came-from-
lab-in-china-completely-unfounded-scientists-say


--  
 Thanks,
    - Win

Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
I love it when people espouse a good conspiracy theory.  I really love it when you cannot tell which side is pushing the crazy theories

Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
wrote:

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These days, you can find scientists to say most anything.

--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing   precision measurement  

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Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 3:46:22 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
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Scientists are no different than musicians....He who pays the piper calls the tunes

Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 13:06:40 -0700 (PDT), snipped-for-privacy@columbus.rr.com
wrote:

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They are as driven by emotion and ego as musicians too. The computer
simulations are all over the place.

--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing   precision measurement  

We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
John Larkin wrote:

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** Does anyone sensible really think that modelling future outcomes based on numerous guesses and hunches is doing science ?  

It sure ain't the well founded "scientific method".  

Seems the public have been conned into calling it science - because "scientists" are the ones doing it.  Hmmmm....  

"The science is settled" & "I believe in the science" are catchphrases trotted out to prove one's feelings about AGW have virtue.  

IMO - all they really show is how gullible you are - or maybe something worse.  


.....   Phil  




Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
Phil Allison wrote:
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"I believe in science" is a useful phrase because it marks the people  
who wouldn't know science if it fell on them.

So does "the science is settled" to a lesser degree.





Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 7:07:21 AM UTC+10, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
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Sadly, lots of people think this. The science about anthropogenic global wa
rming really is settled - or as settled as a well-established scientific hy
pothesis can ever be. The earth is getting warmer, and it is getting warmer
 because the human habit of burning fossil carbon for fuel means that there
 is quite a bit more CO2 in the atmosphere than there was a few hundred yea
rs ago (or has been for the past 20 million years).

The fact that today's CO2 is short of carbon-14 does mean that the extra CO
2 is our CO2 - fossil carbon doesn't contain any carbon-14.

John Larkin and Tom Del Rosso don't seem to know enough about science to un
derstand this. The denialist propaganda machine does exploit their ignoranc
e.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 13:56:02 -0700 (PDT), Phil Allison

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It works OK for well-behaved, reasonably linear systems, which aren't
the most interesting or important systems.  

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TOP scientists!

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--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing   precision measurement  

We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 7:04:12 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
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John Larkin uses Spice to model electronic circuits. He hasn't noticed that transistors have an exponential - non-linear - relationship between base-emitter voltage and collector current.

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Of course not. But it is useful within the scientific method, when used by people who know what they doing. John Larkin doesn't know much about what they are doing (or what he's doing when he runs Spice)

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The problem here is that John Larkin has a very strange idea of what constitutes science.

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John Larkin gets all his idea about anthropogenic global warming from denialist propaganda sites, and lacks the wit to realise that they are lying to him for their own commercial advantage.  

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John Larkin is terminally gullible.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 6:34:52 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
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19-came-from-
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s the tunes
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Computer simulations are supposed to be all over the place. They are intend
ed to demonstrate how different sets of assumption play out. Any computer m
odel has to be a simplification of reality, and the interesting question is
 which set of simplifications are productive.

Scientists are quite as driven by emotion and ego as musicians - it's a the
atrical profession - but what they produce is much more tightly constrained
  than musical compositions.

John Larkin is deeply ignorant about science, but at it's core it is a soci
al mechanism designed to set up a coherent and cohesive view of the world.  
We've been working on the mechanism for the last couple of hundred years.

The Royal Society in London was the first one set up to formalise this proc
ess.

"The very first ?learned society? meeting on 28 November 16
60 followed a lecture at Gresham College by Christopher Wren."

So far it seems to be working out pretty well.

--  
Bill Sloman, sydney

Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 12:46:22 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
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No scientists trusts a scientist's words, rather we trust the data.
The 'say almost anything' phrase suggests that you've been finding
scientists entertaining hypotheses that aren't in agreement.   That's normal,
and  wouldn't surprise anyone with a good elementary school science
education.   It's not noteworthy.

When a scientist, in this case, says a claim is unfounded, it means the
claim alone is worthless, absent a supporting observation; that doesn't
mean the claim is right or wrong, it means it's untested.

The dramatic-form 'he said, she said' squabbling is irrelevant in science.   The
resolution will always come from observations, not words and syllables.

Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 4:13:47 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
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9-came-from-
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mal,
.   The
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Science is a funny thing.  When it flies airplanes and fires guns and heals
 people....the funny thing is....pretty much every one believes in science.
  The problem is when "scientists" make grand pronouncements , that funny e
nough , have huge political ramifications, with no proven anything....It is
 pretty much should be treated as bunk.  And that data you talk about....It
 is usually twisted and distorted to drive an agenda.  

Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
On Sunday, April 19, 2020 at 6:33:27 AM UTC+10, snipped-for-privacy@columbus.rr.com wrot
e:
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-19-came-from-
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ormal,
ce.   The
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ls people....the funny thing is....pretty much every one believes in scienc
e.  The problem is when "scientists" make grand pronouncements , that funny
 enough , have huge political ramifications, with no proven anything....It  
is pretty much should be treated as bunk.  And that data you talk about....
It is usually twisted and distorted to drive an agenda.

It difficult to twist or distort data. Somebody else can go out and measure
 the same thing, and the two sets of data had better agree - within the lim
its of observational accuracy.

Rght-wingers do seem to be susceptible to stuff that claims to be science,  
but is actually propaganda. The book "The Bell Curve" comes to mind.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bell_Curve

It was dismantled by some real scientists

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inequality_by_Design

who - amongst other things - looked carefully at the data that Hernstein an
d Murray had relied on, and found that it didn't support the story that "Th
e Bell Curve" had built on it.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
wrote:

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The problem now is too little observation, too little reliable data,
and too many opinions and simulations that are having gigantic
consequences.

The follow-up books, a year or so from now, will be fun. The good ones
will name names.





--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing   precision measurement  

We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 1:38:59 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

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Nonsense, as usual.   You've also said there's too much news coverage.
We have a pandemic on a globe with 7.8 billion inhabitants  
and you pronounce a finding of 'too many opinions'?    

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Oh, you have some supporting data and a good model that predicts that?
Me, I'm predicting a practical vaccine for 'a year or so from now'.   That's
my idea of fun.

Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
wrote:

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There are death projections that cover a 20:1 range. Some people say
it will be with us for 18 months, only stopping when have a vaccine in
mass production. Some people want to go back to work in two weeks.
Some want to go back now.

Some people suggest a second, bigger case surge in the fall. One big
name simulated a bouncing-ball curve of infections, multiple declining
peaks.

We are just now starting to get some antibody data.  
  
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You don't think anyone will write books about this? You don't think
they might be fun? Barry's book about the 1918 epidemic is great
reading.

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New cases seem to have peaked, and faded way down, in the places where
it started earliest. Look at the JHU new-case curves. Lots of european
countries are below 1/10 of peak now. It may well be gone before a
vaccine is available or useful, like most colds.

--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing   precision measurement  

We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 3:45:37 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

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From folk with credible models, and for the same region and time period?

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"it" being... half a hundred things.   Active sickness?  Travel restrictions?   Gathering
discouragement?   Viable virus residues?   Hospital staff wearing hazmat gear?
Some of those, yes; some of them, no. #shrug

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Yeah, that can happen.   So, a simulation can show that happening. #shrug

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So is Betty MacDonald's _The Plague and I_, about TB.   Not fun,
exactly.
We ought not anticipate such writing, though, rather we should let authors
surprise us.

Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
wrote:

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One of them is possibly credible. We just don't know which one.

--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing   precision measurement  

We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: Claim That Covid-19 Came From Lab In China Completely Unfounded, Scientists Say
On Saturday, April 18, 2020 at 8:20:30 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
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I once had a model of a Ferrari.  It wasn't anything like an actual
Ferrari.

But then it didn't come out of a computer -- if it had come out of
a computer it wouldda been just like an actual Ferrari.  Because
computers.

Grins,
James

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