Re: Cost of the grid compared to solar

There are many friends of mine in KY and IL who are now unemployed or had to take lower paying jobs who cannot afford to travel out of state as they once used too. So I'd have to disagree with the not being tight on money above from My point of reference.

I find many more wine bargains right now than I ever have, My comment on the wine over supply came from an NPR food series two months past relating to wine and its economy.

I might not be drinking quality wine, my price limit per bottle is usually around 12 us dollars per bottle.

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Modat22
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In article , Jim- T@analog_innovations.com mentioned... [snip]

That sounds like what they're saying about Calif Gov. Davis.

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Watson A.Name - 'Watt Sun'

In article , snipped-for-privacy@yahoo.com mentioned...

I haven't seen any cars running on atomic fuel lately. And now they're talking about taking the nuclear gen stations and decommissioning the reactors and replacing them with conventional boilers.

One other poiint. There is a lot of oil in certain places, but it might be expensive to extract as he said, and it might be high sulfur, which is a real problem for metro areas like L.A. So what it boils down to is it's all a matter of money. The price of fuel goes up, and the industry is more willing to tap existing sources, whatever they may be. If things get real bad, the coal gets dug up and refined into some other fuel.

Seems like it, doesn't it?

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Watson A.Name - 'Watt Sun'

Hi Ian:

Much of what you say is a valid view point. It does take 10 years to get a Syncrude type plant up and running, in normal times. However, if the oil supply really hit the fan, it could be done a lot faster. Remember that during WWII the USA built 4 industrial facilities for U235 and plutonium extraction on a real fast track. From ground breaking to opening in less than a year. These 4 plants, each were as big an investment as the Ford River Rouge facility or a modern Syncrude plant. They were handicapped then too as when they started building, much of the machinery to go into them had not yet been invented.

Of course, now with the help of computers and committees, in the 11 months it took them to build in Oak Ridge Tennessee, we could not even come to a decision where to put the parking lot.

Like I said, we are letting the arabs sell us their easy to produce oil first. After they run out, our currency will fall in value and all they will have for a heritage is a lot of old infrastructure and rapidly depreciating money.

In the mean time, say oil rose to $60.00 a barrel. This would double gas prices here, to about the same level as in Europe. I really don't think that European level prices will devastate us that badly.

Remember it is a rule of economics that the cheapest to produce supplies will be used first. Then, when those run out (and the run out will be gradual) the price starts to rise. as the price rise, more expensive supplies will come on line and higher prices will also make people use less and substitute other resources.

Remember that Europe had an energy crisis over 200 years ago when firewood supplies were exhausted. Firewood had to be brought in from farther and farther distances.

As the price rose, people used less and eventually substitutes were found.

If oil gets too expensive, people will use less and technology will find substitutes. Remember, nothing says we have to always use oil to power our vehicles. Its only the most convenient way right now. WHen oil gets expensive enough guys like me, the scientists and engineers, will think of something else to make our cars go.

Besides, oil is such a fascinating raw material. its almost a shame to burn the stuff merely for it's heat content.

Actually, what goes down the pipelines from Ft. McMurray and Cold Lake to the refineries in Edmonton is such a high grade oil that it can be used for some purposes as it is. You should see the mountains of sulfur all over Alberta from what they extract from the oil and gas. They'd love it if you could find a use for millions of tons of the stuff.

Yes, why when it costs under $1.00 to produce oil in Saudi or even $10.00 in Texas. However, when the supply in Saudi and texas wind down, the $15.00 from shale won't look too bad. However, once the economics make it make sense, actually extracting the oil is merely a matter of sitting down and inventing something. The Petroleum Institute at the University of Calgary is on top of it. Lots of ways have been thought of and we engineers will figure something out. When the need becomes acute and the economics are there, we always do.

Exactly, so what's the panic? If oil becomes doubles in cost, supplies many times larger than we have now will become economic. After all, when oil was $2.00 a barrel, why bother extracting North Sea oil. When OPEC forced oil up, supplies increased dramatically because previously uneconomic supplies became economic. It was only a jolt because the sudden cut off by OPEC forced a rapid price transition while natural economics works more gradually.

Yes but they spend that $35.00 a barrel and then some. The cash does them no good unless they spend it and do they ever spend it. Even Saudi is in trouble for spending more than they take in. However, as domestic production falls the price will rise and production will become possible in previously uneconomic areas. However, it would be a big help if our government increased the CAFE by 1 MPG every year for the next 20 years and included SUVs in it. If it was up to me, vehicles would be taxed every year on an exponential scale if above a certain size.

Europeans live with 1 Liter cars and so could we. My car is a 2.5L and it has all the power anyone really needs. The few times I need bigger, I rent something.

When it comes to a true emergency, money will become available. Do you think that the war bond drives were to finance the war. Hell, they just made up the money that was needed. The war bond drives were to absorb a bunch of the money the workers were paid in order to prevent inflation. The workers had money during WWII and nothing to buy. That's the formula for inflation. By selling paper to the workers as war bonds, it soaked up enough money to keep inflation from running away.

Even now, when they talk about the deficit, they always say, "and it excludes the war in Iraq". If the powers that be deem something to be essential, they alter the numbers on some hard drives in Washington DC and the money is there.

Why look? It will cost $10.00 a barrel to produce new oil in the US. Yes, the cheap oil has already been found. It costs $1.00 a barrel to produce in Saudi so why not use that first. You have to think global and get over the idea that there is a finite amount of money our there. The money supply in the US grows at something like 10%+ a year, however fast Alan Greenspan thinks can be done without triggering inflation. Money is only finite on a micro economic level, the level we live our lives on. However, in the grand geopolitical level, money is a flexible concept.

National governments only plead poverty when they don't really want to finance something or if they are afraid doing so will not accomplish anything the powers that be hold dear. Like educating all our kids.

Its there. Actually, we will likely never extract it. When oil gets too dear, we'll use less and use other things instead. Heck, give me $100 Billion and I'll have all our vehicles running off biologically extracted methane in 10 years. However, the political will is not there yet. However, some day it will be.

The Hitch Hikers Guide to the Galaxy says it all:

DON'T PANIC

Hell, I'm one of the people that makes the future happen. Right now, I'm designing products and inventing processes that weren't even science fiction twenty years ago. When the politicos and bean counters are ready, me and other men and women like me will make it work.

-- Dan Fraser

From Costa Mesa in sunny California

Check out my electronic schematics site at:

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Dan Fraser

Gee. I don't have Dans post in my list so thanks for responding. Otherwise I wouldn't have seen it as it is missing from my news server.

The approval process was streamlined but the main reason that plants had not been built was that there was a glut of energy and the companies had no reason to suspect either the sudden population or boom increase. The time to build ensures a lag between the perception of need and the fulfilling of it. Note also that Washington/Oregon usually filled in for power shortages using hydroelectic and the reduced snowpack eliminated this 'cheap backup' just at the wrong time. As well, the energy companies had to take **15%*** of the power offline to generate the 'crisis' when normal maintenance is less than

5%. Take ENOUGH power offline and you can guarantee a power shortage no matter what the potential is. These were the SAME power plants that were restarted to fill the 'shortfall' at ten to a hundred times the price for 'the last watt'.

Actually.. sorry, but you need to do more reading... the shortfall in Natural Gas supplies derives mostly from the deregulation. Prior to that the state imported Natural Gas at 100% of a limited pipeline capacity and stored it locally to maximize the supply and prevent price spikes. The elimination of one pipeline and the elimination of local storage means that as demand exceed current pipeline capacity the prices will spike enormously. This is purely a 'market failure' due to the fact that the private supplier has no interest in protecting low prices, by running storage facilities(at his own cost), as he can 'charge what the market will bear' in a price spike and make big profits. The price goes up much more than the costs.

Many companies now make their major profits from artificial 'shortages', and can minimize capacity such that a regular price spike will occur. Do you think the sudden increase in prices of gasoline every weekend and especially on long weekends is 'mere coincidence'? No. It is a plan to minimize refinery capacity to ensure that there WILL be a 'shortage' at each weekend and thus the 'supply vs demand' market forces will push the prices up. "What? US??? No. It is just supply and demand...". The company has NO mandate to take on any 'price spike avoidance' which is why public utilities ( such as electricity ) have been the traditional solution. The public corporation has, at it's core, a steady and dependable supply as the goal, not profits.

The natural gas situation has stabilezed somewhat with new capacity and Grey Davis pushing for more storage and long term contracts.

You will likely find big business exploiting 'natural shortages' for quick profits. Good outcomes usually depend on good planning.

Wow. Where did those rose colored glasses come from?? The prices will become so high that high priced American manufacture will be competitive for what few people can still afford them? Gee. I'm impressed. Hold the presses. The Billionaires are saved....

I thought this was about the average joe...

Actually you missed the part about higher prices. It means that you will be in the same situation as the third world. Making products you cannot afford to buy yourself on slave wages as American manufacturesr try to 'minimise labor costs' on expensive domestic production for the few who can afford the remaining resources.

Fixing castoff equipment from the garbage dumps of the wealthy enclaves may indeed be the only way for the hoi poloi to have some of the conveniences. Does this sound like paradise?

Reply to
Ian St. John

prices

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We might, but we are not the only ones in the world who rely on foriegn oil. When their economies go, so will ours. Think WORLD view. We also have many oil-sharing agreements.

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From what I have been reading, both of those costs to produce are very wrong. Do you have some data to support those figures. I read $5 to produce in Iraq, $10-13 in Saudi Arabia to produce the equivalent product.

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Reply to
MSH

In article , snipped-for-privacy@spamcop.net mentioned... [snip]

[big snip]

I really didn't need the expert analysis, I was just trying to make a point that the people got screwed by the (artificially created) energy shortage. Whatever the case, the delay between the time the oil wells start pumping high sulfur crude and the time it takes to build or convert a cracking plant to handle that crude may be a few years. In the meantime, some kind of enrgy shortage may appear, and the whole thing will happen again as it did in the '70s. As for your comment, "Does this sound like paradise?", well, it has never sounded like paradise, no matter who you are or where you are. Period.

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