Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?

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Hi,

Our German distributor just called to inform me, that he
expects long backorder delays in the next months. This may
have two serious reasons, I can think of:

1. His quasterly results are bad.
2. The economical upswing (is it real? :-)) may result
in supply shortage, as he said.

Can anybody confirm reason 2?

Harald

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Re: Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?
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Confirm ? No.
There is a probability though.
These backorder delays happen and tend to be
unfortunate. Better have some on stock.


Rene
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Re: Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?

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I wouldn't be surprised if there is a shortage. This is what pushed me away
from Atmel micro's in their early days.



Re: Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?

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IMHO, you'll hardly find superior chips today without
taking this risk.

After the mobile phone boom, we felt quite save. During
the last years the AVRs were available from stock in
quantities of some hundreds.

Harald

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Re: Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?
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I can confirm that it's been a bad quarter for our
major distributer.  Does that help?





Re: Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?

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I am told that there are lead-time problems with a few AVR chips due to
unexpected large orders cleaning out inventory.
Since it takes 3-4 months to produce parts and semiconductor companies does
not like stock
more than their customers, this causes leadtimes to approach the production
time of devices
which is 12-16 weeks. The fact that the AVR production is moving to a new
fab may or may not be relevant.

God loves the companies which provide forecast and orders 16 weeks in
advance.



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Re: Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?
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This is the deranged view of semiconductor companies. Somehow they have
managed to supply an alternative reality where we should be responsible for
stocking their product just in case we need it.  So we pay their margin up
front to sit on inventory we may need sometime. Whereas most other companies
stock their product and ship to customers asap.

We would all love customers to place orders in advance, but we would go out
of business if we required it.  Just imagine if your local electrons
supplier acted like a semiconductor company.....

Ralph






Re: Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?

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for

This isn't any different from dealing with McDonalds: if they happen to have
the fries you ordered under the heat lamp, you get them quickly.  Otherwise,
you wait.  The only difference is the lead time of the chips in question.

Kelly



Re: Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?

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have
Otherwise,

Not quite the same.  With McDonalds I don't have to tell them 4 months in
advance how hungry I will be for fear of starving to death otherwise.




Re: Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?

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You're overstretching the analogy, mixing time scales wildly.  The key
figure is the difference between production time and consumption time
(as in: the time between you ordering your fries and the moment you
would drop dead of starvation if you haven't gotten any until then).
With McD, realistic worst-case production time is sevaral orders of
magnitude shorter than consumption time, so it's really no problem if
they don't have any readily fried ones in stock the moment you walk
in.  You wouldn't starve for at least a week, but it takes a maximum
of 10 minutes to make fresh fries for you.

As to microcontrollers, production takes about long as your starvation
interval; quite possibly longer.  And that means you either pay for
stock production and storage, or you'll starve.  It's as simple as
that.

It's really a rather moot point whether storage of those chips made
long before you let anybody know you wanted them, but ending up being
sold to you, happens at the part maker, at your distributor, or even
on your own premises.  If you refuse to pre-order and store the parts
yourself, you'll either end up paying someone else for doing it for
you, or you won't get the chips.

To get back to the McD analog: your complaint would be more like some
person who hasn't eaten anything for a couple of days, although he
lives next to the McD and has the money to pay, then crawls in 2
minutes before he would die of starvation and makes a fuss that they
take 10 minutes to fry him a burger.

Production times are a largely immutable reality --- consumption time
is something *you* can influence.  You refuse to apply that influence
entirely at your own risk.

--
Hans-Bernhard Broeker ( snipped-for-privacy@physik.rwth-aachen.de)
Even if all the snow were burnt, ashes would remain.

Re: Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?
Which of the AVR chips have seen the large ordders? Also, since you're
here, which fab is the AVR production moving to?

Hul


:
:> Hi,
:>
:> Our German distributor just called to inform me, that he
:> expects long backorder delays in the next months. This may
:> have two serious reasons, I can think of:
:>
:> 1. His quasterly results are bad.
:> 2. The economical upswing (is it real? :-)) may result
:> in supply shortage, as he said.
:>
:> Can anybody confirm reason 2?
:>
:> Harald
:>
:> --
:> For spam do not replace spamtrap with my name
:>
: I am told that there are lead-time problems with a few AVR chips due to
: unexpected large orders cleaning out inventory.
: Since it takes 3-4 months to produce parts and semiconductor companies does
: not like stock
: more than their customers, this causes leadtimes to approach the production
: time of devices
: which is 12-16 weeks. The fact that the AVR production is moving to a new
: fab may or may not be relevant.
:
: God loves the companies which provide forecast and orders 16 weeks in
: advance.
:
:
:

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Re: Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?
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the production
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3)
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 Any ONE of these 3 events is cause enough for supply line concern,
from those experienced in life at the end of the pipe.
 Mention of ALL THREE is likely to cause sleepless nights....

-jg

Re: Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?

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Which is easy for larger companies doing business as
usual, but difficult for small companies with a rapidly
growing (or decreasing) business.

After reading all the responses and reconsidering the
situation, I recognized, that gambling would be the most
hazardous attitude. We will try to lower the risk by taking
the middle course and ordering a few more than usual.

Thanks to all posters,

Harald

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Re: Shortage in Atmel Microcontrollers expected?
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We use two alternative distributors for Atmel chips and usually get
what we order in 1-2 weeks.
Never heard for upcoming supply shortage.

Best regards
Tsvetan
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