> On Tue, 12 Aug 2008 19:36:15 -0700, John Larkin wrote:
>> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>There are just an amazing amount of new battery possibilities when
vehicles
>>>>>>>finally move away from the inefficient, polluting, and heavy ICEs, and
>>>>>>>towards an era of clean electric drive.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Except that everything else, so far, is less efficient, more
>>>>>> polluting, and heavier. Not to mention way more expensive.
>>>>>
>>>>>This is not true.
>>>>>
>>>>>Electric drive is 4X more efficient (not even counting regenerative
braking), zero-pollution at the tailpipe (it has none), and
>>>>>is
>>>>>much lighter than an ICE.
>>>>
>>>> Only if the electricity magically comes from somewhere free, and you
>>>> lug enough batteries for 20 miles of travel.
>>>>
>>>> But the electricity sas to be generated somewhere, at thermal
>>>> efficiency levels. Transport, chargers, and batteries throw a bunch of
>>>> it away. Batteries are heavy and full of nasty chemicals.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>More expensive ? Prototypes are always more expensive.
>>>>>But let's see :
>>>>>
>>>>>ICE : Complicated engine with lots of rotating and moving parts, with oil +
water cooling system, with emission control (incl
>>>>>catalytic converter with precious metals), with transmission and a
differential and exhaust system and a massive amount of
>>>>>pipes
>>>>>and sensors.
>>>>
>>>> And it all works great. I can load up 200 HP-hours worth of energy in
>>>> about 2 minutes at a gas pump. That's about a 5 megawatt equivalent
>>>> charging rate. And I can drive coast-to-coast on about an hour of pit
>>>> stops.
>>>
>>>You seem to confuse electric drive with EVs.
>>>Electric drive with a small auxiliry power unit will give you all the
benefits of the current gasoline (or another fuel)
>>>infrastructure.
>>>Like in the Volt (the only model with electric drive that GM actually has a
plan for)....
>>
>> Stuff like this has been "planned" for decades. I'll be impressed whan
>> quantities of them are on the road.
>>
>> A plug-in hybrid does make sense for city drivers. But small, light
>> cars make sense no matter what propels them. A small, light
>> gasoline-powered car may make the most sense.
> The external costs of the fuel do not appear in the price. And if these
> costs were part of the price then biofuels would be the best current
> alternative. This is true here in the USA because we actually have the
> land necessary to produce that fuel and it is land that is not currently
> serving any good purpose or land that is serving a purpose that is not as
> environmentally and economically valid as it would be if devoted to fuel
> production. An example of this latter case is the production of paper
> that ends up in the land fills as trash. We could do with a bit less
> paper and use the pulp trees to make fuel. That is probably a good trade.
>>>
>>>>
>>>> Sometimes I get into my Rabbit in the morning, start it up, drive away
>>>> 5 seconds later, turn on the radio and the heater, ignore the steep
>>>> hills and the cold rain, and marvel at the whole process. And that
>>>> hundreds of millions of other working people can afford to do the same
>>>> thing.
>>>
>>>Yes. me too.
>>>The ICE has served us greatly over the past 100 years that oil was abundant
and cheap, and the engineering advances made are
>>>magnificent.
>>>The ICE also enabled an astounding economic growth that we (as the people of
this planet) have created for ourselves.
>>>It also created a number of really big problems, which start to become
apparent, increasingly difficult and pressing as well as
>>>more
>>>and more expensive.
>>>More expensive for individuals, as well as nations, as well as the planet's
eco systems.
>>>It's time for change (before another 2 billion people join in our lifestyle).
>>>
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Electric drive : a few melon-size electric motor/generators and a power
control unit.
>>>>>Add a small (40hp) auxiliry power unit and you drive a 80mpg vehicle.
>>>>>
>>>>>Mmmm. What would be cheaper in mass production ?
>>>>
>>>> What *is* cheaper?
>>>
>>>Want to bet ?
>>>In mass production, I want to bet that electric drive is significantly
cheaper to produce than ICEs.
>>>
>>>> If electric cars are cheaper and more efficient,
>>>> why aren't they popular? Conspiracy?
>>>
>>>John, I don't believe in conspiracies. In a free market the most cost
efficient solution wins. But big changes take time.
>>>The incentives are there now (to start moving to electric drive, away from
oil and towards electricity), but only for the last
>>>couple of years.
>>>Also the political will to change (to start moving away from oil and fossil
fuels) has not been there.
>>>We are just getting started (with PHEVs).
>>>This process is going to take a while (to move vehicles away from oil and
towards electricity).
>>>15-20 years is my estimate.
> And biofuels are a big part of that which fills the gap.
I hope so. But there is a lot of work to do.
The promising biofuel segment of fuel production from biomass is very, very
small right now.
Here is an example plant (in Germany) :
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3938#more
Unfortunately, this process in still not cost effective (even though the biomass
is free, the plant still looses money).
With that free enterprise will not jump on it....
And remember that it would require a monumental increase (think hundreds of such
$100M+ plants) to even compensate for 1 million
barrels/day of oil.
So I don't see how biofuel can compensate for the adsurtly immense requirements
of the US ICE engines.
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Batteries cost ?
>>>>>If you are an average American, you spend around $3,000/year in gasoline
right now.
>>>>>I bet that for $3,000/year you can lease a top-of-the-line battery pack.
Even at current low-volume prices.
>>>>>
>>>>>What is cheaper ?
>>>>>What is cleaner ?
>>>>>What is more efficient ?
>>>>>What is better prepared for the post Peak-Oil era that we just entered ?
>>>>
>>>> The peak oil point is always 10 years away.
>>>
>>>That is impossible.
>>>Oil will peak at some point if it did not already.
>>>
>>>>
>>>> Hey, build yourself an electric car and save a bundle. There are lots
>>>> of conversion kits on the market.
>>>
>>>I might just do that, although retrofits are very seldom cost-effective.
>>>I pretty much have to throw away half the vehicle (ICE/drivetrain etc etc you
know it).
>>>And the other half (chassis) got crumbled on I 238 last week :o(
>>>
>>>>
>>>> There just aren't any good batteries.
>>>
>>>After all we talked about, this is what you say ?
>>>It seems to me that you have made up your mind on this subject.
>>
>> Where's the great battery? I suspect a really good auto battery may be
>> impossible.
> Biodiesel is one super duper battery. The shelf life is really good and
> the weight is not all that bad for the energy content. The photosynthesis
> is a the way you charge the battery. We need better algae that can get
> 20% efficiency as opposed to 8%.
The problem (with algae oil or another liquid biofuel) is also that it needs to
be burned in an ICE before it powers the wheels.
That goes with an efficiency of 20% (or maybe 30% for diesels).
But 30% of 8% is an overall photons->wheel power efficiency of less than 3%.
It's going to be very difficult to make that process cost-effective.
> There was some promising research on
> this and some folks observing less than 8 photons to cause proper
> reactions and then .... nothing. There were some dudes shifting light
> wavelengths from blue to yellow red and that seems to have gone also.
> Nothing is happening that I can find.
We talked about this. Algae plants will not be much more efficient than open
ponds, around 2,000-3,000 gallons/acre/year. Maybe up
to the Dimitrov limit of 5,000 gallons/acre/year.
That means that a cost-efficient algae plant thus needs to be very cheap
(open/closed ponds of plastic foil tubing).
Did you see any large-scale algae experimental plant already that matches that
criterium ?
We are gonna need a LOT of these plants (the ones that are currently not there,
and not cost-efficient in their pilot versions) to
make any dent in the 20+ million barrels/day that the US uses. Maybe we should
do something on the 'consumption' side (with EVs and
PHEVs) ?
> How do I search (like google) the patent data to find stuff like this?
Try http://www.freepatentsonline.com
Or simply google for a search string of interest and include the 'patent'
keyword.
> --
> "I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers
> of society but the people themselves; and
> if we think them not enlightened enough to
> exercise their control with a wholesome
> discretion, the remedy is not to take it from
> them, but to inform their discretion by
> education." - Thomas Jefferson
> http://GreaterVoice.org/extend
>
["Followup-To:" header set to sci.energy.]
>>
>> And biofuels are a big part of that which fills the gap.
>>
> I hope so. But there is a lot of work to do.
> The promising biofuel segment of fuel production from biomass is very, very
small right now.
> Here is an example plant (in Germany) :
> http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3938#more
> Unfortunately, this process in still not cost effective (even though the
biomass is free, the plant still looses money).
> With that free enterprise will not jump on it....
My opinion is that the best near term use for cellulosic biomass is
for applications that need low grade heat. Displacing high quality
fuels like heating oil and nat gas for residential heating. You can
displace a quad of heating oil and nat gas with a quad of switchgrass
pellets, that same quad of switchgrass nets at most .7 quads of liquid
fuel (probably more like .55 in practice). Pellet presses are much
cheaper than FT reactors.
My $0.02.
>> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>There are just an amazing amount of new battery possibilities when