The effect of climate change on US agricultural output

I would like.

y can grow grapes and make wine.

What Dan and John are too ill-informed to appreciate is that a re-run of Th e Younger Dryas is one of the possible consequences of anthropogenic global warming. When the Greenland ice sheet slides off into the North Atlantic, it could dump enough fresh water there to stop the Gulf Stream for a while

- the Laurentian ice sheet seemed to manage to stop it for 1300 years.

A real ice age isn't on the cards, but Chicago got a lot colder during the Younger Dryas, even as the most recent ice age was ending.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman
Loading thread data ...

e,

John Larkin does swallow the denialist conspiracy theory that explains cli mate change as a hoax devised allow Al Gore and climate scientists to make money.

Al Gore does seem to have made some money out of climate change, but he wro te "Earth in the Balance" in 1991 and it got published in 1992, long before there was any prospect of making money out of it. Climate scientists just get their academic salaries - if they managed to debunk anthropogenic they' d get plum appointments and a slightly higher grade of academic salary, but now only idiots waste time trying for that route to advancement.

Dr. Seuss

formatting link

Neither had I - I'm too old for Dr. Seuss. John Larkin's reading age doesn' t seem to have got to Dr. Seuss yet - he only reads denialist web-sites, de signed to entrap the seriously cognitively challenged.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

Actually Bill Sloman does not know what Chaotic means. For a real understanding of " Chaotic " consult any dictionary.

In Slomanese it means what ever Bill wants it to mean. Do not confuse him with facts.

Dan

Reply to
dcaster

formatting link

is an example, and since John Larkin was trying to use the word in the mathematical sense - which is what I was referring to - Dan's advice was as fatuous as ever, which he might have found out if he'd had the wit to test it.

Dan is clearly unwilling to come up with any facts that might confuse me - if he wasn't such a persistent half-wit, one might imagine that he had tried to find a definition of "chaotic" and had come up empty.

formatting link

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

1 Greenland continues to melt. 2 Reverse Gulf Stream stops, since it is driven by cold water from the glaciers. 3 Gulf Stream stops, since the water can't "pile up" off Norway. 4 There are polar bears in London, just as there are in Churchill.

There are already ambiguous signs that the Gulf Stream is shifting further south :(

Reply to
Tom Gardner

I haven't kept up, but surely by now the arctic ice cap has completely melted and all the polar bears have drowned.

--
John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
John Larkin

Sloman provides an invaluable service to s.e.d. He is the perfect example of the ideal combination of personality traits that make a bad and unemployable electronic designer.

--
John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
John Larkin

Nah :) But it appears to be on its way :(

After all, the Northwest Passage is open for the first time in recorded history. As I kid I was taught how many sailors died trying and failing to find such a shipping passage.

"...a Chinese shipping line is planning regular voyages of cargo ships using the passage to the eastern United States and Europe, after a successful passage by Nordic Orion of 73,500 tonnes deadweight tonnage in September

2013. Fully loaded, Nordic Orion was too large to sail through the Panama Canal."

We can deprecate and then ignore the mixed statements about the Nordic Orion; the big picture is clear.

formatting link

Reply to
Tom Gardner

Better tell the bears. They are breeding like rabbits.

"Norwegian Roald Amundsen made the first complete passage in

--
John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
John Larkin

I didn't know that!

His boat, at 45tons, was just an oversized canoe because he knew that any commercially-sized ship would fail. I don't think his boat would have had any difficulty fitting through the Panama Canal.

Now ships 1500* larger have made the passage, which is significant commercially (fine) and otherwise (not so fine).

Reply to
Tom Gardner

formatting link

There's less Arctic sea ice than there used to be, but still quite a bit (though what there is is thinner than it used to be).

Polar bears drowning does seem to have been one of those emotionally-appealing bits of Greenpeace propaganda which has been shot down.

formatting link

The message seems to be that they are doing fine at the moment, but could find life more difficult after 2040, when there will probably be a lot less Arctic sea ice around

John Larkin is right. He doesn't keep up. Relying on Anthony Watts's web-site for climate information isn't wise.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

I was employable from 1973 to 2003, and performed rather well, after which I got too old to be easily employable.

John Larkin doesn't value patents - which makes sense in his situation - and can't make sense of papers published in the peer-reviewed literature, so his judgement of what might be a good or bad electronic designer is a trifle idiosyncratic.

In a company that turns around a "new" design in a fortnight - on average - I might not be the ideal employee. Then again, I might not find John Larkin the ideal boss.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

Shooting down Greenpeace propaganda is like shooting fish in a barrel; they are a disreputable organisation.

But that doesn't mean everything Greenpeace says is false, nor that every cause they espouse is wrong.

Reply to
Tom Gardner

Me neither; that is just one way in which they are disreputable.

Reply to
Tom Gardner

True. But the Greenpeace enthusiasm for going for the emotional reaction when there is a perfectly respectable intellectual case to be made means that they don't get any financial help from me.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

What is your basis for that idea? Estimating polar bear numbers is notoriously difficult, but certainly recent surveys have shown more malnutrition (mainly due to shrinking habitats), and more problems due to pollution.

Note the timings - it took 3.5 years for Amundsen to make that journey.

Reply to
David Brown

than I would like.

so they can grow grapes and make wine.

e

le

ly

Ah, but in 1942 the first east to west trip through the NW Passage was made in a single season by the St. Roch:

formatting link

John

Reply to
John Robertson

That Nordic Orion thing is basically a 75,000 ton icebreaker. It makes its own Northwest Passage.

--
John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
picosecond timing   precision measurement  
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
John Larkin

What John Larkin doesn't know is that curve fitting generates an error-magnitude surface around the best fit point.

Any sensible curve-fitting program tests the quality of the fit of each of the parameter by finding solutions along the three-standard deviation contour line.

If two parameters are strongly correlated - as usually happens if you have hundreds of tweakable parameters - neither of them ends up well-defined.

People who write those sorts of multi-parameter non-linear curve-fitting programs are well-aware of the "banana-valley" problem, and include data in the program output that tells you when you are trying to fit more parameters than the data can define.

The one I wrote for my Ph.D. work back in 1968 certainly did.

John Larkin's bleating about using "hundreds" of tweakable parameters is simply amateur-night carping by somebody who doesn't know nearly enough about the subject he is carping about.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
eacaws

nd of december. 10 years ago, monsoon start on time from early nov to dec. Because of monsoon started end of dec, it disrupt the fruit flowering proce ss which appear on early jan. So there is reduce fruit production (mango).

Weather is predictable something like ten days in advance. It is chaotic at all time scales, but the sensitivity to initial conditions takes that long to become a problem. Climate doesn't seem to be chaotic in a way that prev ent useful predictions - farming has been profitable for the past ten thous and years. Odd things do happen, but they do seem to reflect ocean currents moving around which would be easy to allow for if we knew more about deep ocean currents.

What is that supposed to mean?

The one degree Celcius temperature rise over the past century is an observa tional artifact? Admittedly Anthony Watts has claimed this, but that's beca use his obsession with Stevenson boxes has blinded him to the rest of the t emperature measuring technology around.

John Larkin's capacity for critical thinking seems to be non-existent, and he believes the nonsense he finds on denialist web-sites. Sad really.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
eacaws

ElectronDepot website is not affiliated with any of the manufacturers or service providers discussed here. All logos and trade names are the property of their respective owners.