perpetual california drought

Looks like acid-snow.

That's a 'canard', not a theme. Extrapolation is another name of 'prediction'; snow prediction is of vital interest, and ought not to be ridiculed.

Ditto hurricane path prediction. Katrina killed folk who had a ready excuse for ignoring the warnings.

JL always seems to believe that a system being chaotic i.e. some parameter of its state at any given time t + x is enormously sensitive to initial conditions at time t means you can say absolutely nothing concrete about the time-evolution of the system, so who knows what all those thick books by mathematicians with titles like "Chaos Theory" full of intimidating-looking equations are about

Perhaps the same things that those thick Economics books are about?

They both appear to describe why a system worked in the past, but projecting into the future is seems inconclusive at best.

John ;-#)#

Wow ! Interesting on the street signs though, that the actual metal part appears to be ok, just the green paint has been stripped off. Thermal expansion/contraction effects ?

We have had our hottest summer on record in South East Queensland. 41 degrees Celsius max for several days in Toowoomba, 2200 feet altitude. Normally max never got over 33, up until the past couple of years.

There's a million times more evidence for the objective existence of greenhouse gas-driven climate change than there ever was for the objective existence of any "invisible hand", yet Conservatives do seem to treat the latter as if it were some sort of God-given truth.

...Jim Thompson

I expect the signs aren't "paint", but are vinyl "stickers". ...Jim Thompson

-- | James E.Thompson | mens | | Analog Innovations | et | | Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus | | STV, Queen Creek, AZ 85142 Skype: skypeanalog | | | Voice:(480)460-2350 Fax: Available upon request | Brass Rat | | E-mail Icon at

Thinking outside the box... producing elegant solutions.

Along the roads, cars splash mud onto the snow. A bit back, it's pristine.

Mud is perfectly natural stuff.

Even short-term, the snow predictions here are absurd; three-day forcasts, even 1-day, are not dependable. Long-term (as in months) they are random noise.

The perpetual drought was called on account of rain.

"If you're an economist, how come you ain't rich?"

I expect it's due to prolonged soaking of the adhesive. I didn't see any indication of mangling, and can't iamgine why there would be.

NT

Some of the signs are seriously twisted. And smaller trees are bent almost horizontal, leaning into the street. Snow is heavy, and it flows.

We don't need evidence to grasp human nature. Understanding of motivations comes from empathy and self awareness.

Oh, okay. So you're basically saying that you understand "human nature" (as if there is some kind of monolithic, Platonic ideal of such a thing) because you thought about it real hard.

You have a weird understanding of "rich" - I don't know of many professional economists living in housing projects that's for sure.

If you mean "Why aren't you super-filthy rich, instead of just ordinary-rich" the answer to that one is pretty simple - Mom and Dad were probably not the latter either.

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PG

PG

John Larkin has this problem distinguishing between weather and climate.

Climate change modellers can predict a dried climate for California without saying anything about the amount of snow dropped by occasional snow storms .

In fact if John Larkin knew what he was talking about, he'd be aware that t he predictions of a long-term lower average rainfall are coupled to predict ion of more extreme "extreme-weather" events.

Extreme weather is driven by the energy stored in the atmosphere, and one d egree Celcius of anthropogenic global warming - which is what we've had so far vis-a-vis normal interglacial temperatures - means 6% more water vapour in the air over the oceans, and 6% more latent energy of vaporisation to t o be translated into faster air movement.

When that air ends up getting to the tops of California's coastal ranges th ere is a chance that 6% more water vapour will get dumped there as snow, an d the fact that the wind speeds are likely to be 3% faster means that the a ir has a better chance of getting there before it has dumped all its water vapour.

And chaotic systems aren't unpredictable when you are looking at their time averaged behaviour - the sensitivity to initial conditions makes it essent ially impossible to predict when they will go nuts, but the fact that they will go nuts from time to time can be entirely predictable. John needs to r ead up on "strange attractors".

John Larkin doesn't know nearly as much about chaos theory and chaotic syst em as he ought to - particularly when you consider his enthusiasm for invok ing chaotic behaviour as his general excuse for not taking any prediction s eriously.

er_1.JPG

PG

PG

John Larkin has this problem distinguishing between weather and climate.

Climate change modellers can predict a dried climate for California without saying anything about the amount of snow dropped by occasional snow storms .

In fact if John Larkin knew what he was talking about, he'd be aware that t he predictions of a long-term lower average rainfall are coupled to predict ions of more extreme "extreme-weather" events.

Extreme weather is driven by the energy stored in the atmosphere, and one d egree Celcius of anthropogenic global warming - which is what we've had so far vis-a-vis normal interglacial temperatures - means 6% more water vapour in the air over the oceans, and 6% more latent energy of vaporisation to t o be translated into faster air movement.

When that air ends up getting to the tops of California's coastal ranges th ere is a chance that 6% more water vapour will get dumped there as snow, an d the fact that the wind speeds are likely to be 3% faster means that the a ir has a better chance of getting there before it has dumped all its water vapour.

And chaotic systems aren't unpredictable when you are looking at their time averaged behaviour - the sensitivity to initial conditions makes it essent ially impossible to predict when they will go nuts, but the fact that they will go nuts from time to time can be entirely predictable. John needs to r ead up on "strange attractors".

John Larkin doesn't know nearly as much about chaos theory and chaotic syst em as he ought to - particularly when you consider his enthusiasm for invok ing chaotic behaviour as his general excuse for not taking any prediction s eriously.

So, because weather is chaotic and cannot be predicted more than a week, it is completely invalid to predict that it will be colder in

Weather cannot be predicted more than a week in advance; living in the UK that it is a tenet that everybody imbibes while they are growing up.

Climate, OTOH, can be predicted much more accurately, although there are variations.