So how would you start the economy when the pandemic is fading?
I would keep the schools shut down until the usual time that schools start in the fall. By the time the pandemic is fading ,there would only be a few days that schools could be open before the regular end of school.
I would open domestic air traffic a couple of weeks before opening international flights. And require records being kept of the seats people were in case some one is exposed to someone who tests positive but shows no symtoms.
I would open restaurants , but would require payment by credit card for a couple of months or require keeping records of who ate when so that if there is any vius casos it would fairly easy to determine who might be exposed.
These are thoughts I had today. The main thought is I would spend some time thinking about the best way to start up life after the pandemic fades.
The more fundamental thought is that you don't take a community out of lockdown until you are pretty sure that here aren't any infectious people around - which would be a fortnight after the last local case had been detected.
You'd define a community as people who interact closely enough to pass on an infection, and you'd have borders that kept people out from adjacent communities who hadn't been free of new infection for a fortnight.
You'd probably lay off large gatherings - church services, theatrical events, sports events, election rallies - for a bit longer.
You can't really do useful contact tracing and isolate potential new infectees if an infected person turns up with one of them in their recent history.
They should have just let the damn thing rip AFAICS. If they don't change course the world economy will end up crushed and the 1930s will seem like a cake-walk by comparison. The course they have chosen - if not altered PDQ - will result in the worst possible outcome.
No, _I do not specify what point the decision whatis made to start removing restrictions. _Obviously to me that point is after the hospitals are not overloaded and before every last case of the virus has been detected and treated.
If you believe that it is necessary to know what constitutes a community , explain why and then how you would start getting the economy going.
art in the fall. By the time the pandemic is fading ,there would only b e a few days that schools could be open before the regular end of school.
rnational flights. And require records being kept of the seats people were in case some one is exposed to someone who tests positive but shows no symt oms.
a couple of months or require keeping records of who ate when so that if t here is any vius casos it would fairly easy to determine who might be expos ed.
ome time thinking about the best way to start up life after the pandemic fa des.
Do we know a person who is immune can't spread the disease the same way a d oorknob or table surface does? How does being immune from the disease make a person safe to be around? Seems rather opposite to me. If they are imm une you will never know they gave it to you.
Being immune isn't enough. You will need to be immune and not come in cont act with not immune individuals. So we will need three classes of people, immune community, not immune-not infected community (with distancing) and t he infected community.
All three classes of people would need to be isolated from one another. I can't see that working. Better to just keep the isolation as long as possi ble and maintain social distancing after. The fact that you are immune doe sn't mean you aren't a doorknob.
Essentially now we are treating everyone as if they were infectious. Poten tially the immune and infected communities could be safely merged and only the not infected put in quarantine. But that would likely mean families wo uld need to be split up and that sounds pretty unworkable.
Am I wrong?
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Rick C.
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I'm thinking we should handle this like humanity has handled disease outbreaks for thousand of years -- quarantine the affected area and individuals, while the rest of the people carry on.
That's what our forebears did with typhus, yellow fever, leprosy, tuberculosis, polio, SARS, Ebola, Hantavirus, smallpox, measles...
Back to SARS-CoV2, most of the U.S. is clear --
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The current approach isn't meant to reduce the number of people who ultimately get sick. In fact it may increase that number. The current approach is meant to make sure they don't all get sick at the same time, to prevent hospitals being overloaded.
But this means that when we all come out of hiding, whenever that is, hungry, to hunt grubs and snakes to eat in our post-apocalyptic society, that our vulnerable venerables will be surrounded by asymptomatic individuals who might kill them, rather than immune individuals whose bodies fight the illness instead.
That makes me nervous for Mom, whom I'm rather fond of.
At this point I have two friends who contracted the WuFlu. Both recovered, both are fine. One was exhausted for a month, the other was out-of-sorts for a week, then back to long-distance running.
The latter got it via community-spread in southern California. Thought it was a sinus infection, WuFlu confirmed by testing. Three weeks quarantine with wife and kids, none of whom were infected.
All of the above is anecdotal and you probable can't understand why that doesn't matter. What matters is the number of people filling hospitals and ICUs and the morgues. Can you understand that?
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Ricky C.
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Seems unlikely to be correct. The world economy is in suspension, rather than crushed and should be able to turn back on as soon individal areas get down to no new cases fora fortnight.
China is there already, and South Korea never had to bother to go into lock-down.
The US is in a less happy situation, but it currently has a half-wit in charge. That may need to be corrected.
It may be obvious to you, but it is wrong. If there's one virus carrier running around they can start a new tree of infections, and with no restrictions, the tree will expand just as fast as it did when the epidemic started.
What constitutes a "community" is going to come out of contact tracing - the geographical relationships between the individual who infected other people, and the individuals they infected.
If there isn't an infected person close enough to a community to infect anybody in it, you can take off the restrictions within that community.
How did that work? What's fairly obvious is that the US is in a mess now because they didn't think about what might happen in time to isolate the population as a whole from potentially infected people.
The people who should have been nervous about what might happen clearly weren't nervous enough, or thoughtful enough.
Actually, a whole lot did, but John Larkin doesn't do reason and doesn't understand what's involved in appealing to it.
They can, but being immune means that you immune system can recognise the v irus and kill it off before it can replicate in your body.
Seems rather opposite to me. If they are immune you will never know they gave it to you.
They won't give it to you, They may let somebody else's viruses give it to you, but it's pretty unlikely.
ntact with not immune individuals. So we will need three classes of people , immune community, not immune-not infected community (with distancing) and the infected community.
I can't see that working. Better to just keep the isolation as long as pos sible and maintain social distancing after. The fact that you are immune d oesn't mean you aren't a doorknob.
entially the immune and infected communities could be safely merged and onl y the not infected put in quarantine. But that would likely mean families would need to be split up and that sounds pretty unworkable.
The immune are safe to work with the infected, and they could be useful the re.
art in the fall. By the time the pandemic is fading ,there would only b e a few days that schools could be open before the regular end of school.
rnational flights. And require records being kept of the seats people were in case some one is exposed to someone who tests positive but shows no symt oms.
a couple of months or require keeping records of who ate when so that if t here is any vius casos it would fairly easy to determine who might be expos ed.
ome time thinking about the best way to start up life after the pandemic fa des.
The problem is that the affected but not symptomatic can infect other peopl e.
You have to quarantine not only the visibly affected but also the potential ly infected - which is what South Korea did.
That's exactly what it is intended to do.
It shouldn't. China and South Korea are now down to no new domestic cases - what they are now reporting are returning travellers.
James Arthur doesn't seem to have noticed that China limited the number inf ected to 81,708 people, while the US is now at 336,830 with 34,196 new case s on the 4th April. On Sunday there were fewer, but that was probably the r eligious going out and infecting their congregations when they should have been going to the doctor to get tested.
That's an incidental advantage.
The bodies of immune individual kill the illness stone dead, but only where it gets exposed to their immune system.
Getting to James Arthur's "everybody immune" heaven - actually 60% of the p opulation being immune which would give enough herd immunity to stop epide mics expanding - involves killing off about 50 million people around the wo rld - 4.7 billion people would have to catch the disease, which at a 1% mor tality rate would be 50 million dead. Current mortality rates look more lik e 3.4% which would be closer to 160 million dead.
I assume that he avoided physical contact with the wife and kids during his quarantine, and disinfected any surfaces that he'd contacted before he let them contact them.
virus and kill it off before it can replicate in your body.
Yes, that's the definition of "immune" and not relevant.
? Seems rather opposite to me. If they are immune you will never know the y gave it to you.
o you, but it's pretty unlikely.
Yes, you play with words as if you are saying something worthwhile. No one cares who "owns" the viruses. If it is unlikely for an immune individual to transmit a virus to someone who is not immune, then it's no more likely for that to happen with a doorknob which you previously said could happen. There's no reason why a hand shake with someone to shook hands with an inf ected individual is less likely to transmit the disease than using a doorkn ob used by a infected individual.
contact with not immune individuals. So we will need three classes of peop le, immune community, not immune-not infected community (with distancing) a nd the infected community.
I can't see that working. Better to just keep the isolation as long as p ossible and maintain social distancing after. The fact that you are immune doesn't mean you aren't a doorknob.
otentially the immune and infected communities could be safely merged and o nly the not infected put in quarantine. But that would likely mean familie s would need to be split up and that sounds pretty unworkable.
here.
Yes, that's what I said, the immune can come into contact with the infected . But they would need to be very, very careful not to transmit the virus t hemselves. The standard PPE does not provide much of a barrier over the co urse of a working day with many healthcare workers getting sick and even dy ing. Such workers can also transmit the disease even if they are immune.
--
Rick C.
-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209
he virus and kill it off before it can replicate in your body.
nd? Seems rather opposite to me. If they are immune you will never know t hey gave it to you.
to you, but it's pretty unlikely.
ne cares who "owns" the viruses. If it is unlikely for an immune individua l to transmit a virus to someone who is not immune, then it's no more likel y for that to happen with a doorknob which you previously said could happen . There's no reason why a hand shake with someone to shook hands with an i nfected individual is less likely to transmit the disease than using a door knob used by a infected individual.
That the virus lasts longer on stainless steel than on most surfaces is one reason. The fact that the individual is likely to wash his hands between h andshakes is another - door-knobs don't do that.
The critical point that somebody who is infectious is generating lots of ne w virus particles. Anybody who isn't actually generating virus particles is n't going to have anything like the number of virus particles to spread.
n contact with not immune individuals. So we will need three classes of pe ople, immune community, not immune-not infected community (with distancing) and the infected community.
r. I can't see that working. Better to just keep the isolation as long as possible and maintain social distancing after. The fact that you are immu ne doesn't mean you aren't a doorknob.
Potentially the immune and infected communities could be safely merged and only the not infected put in quarantine. But that would likely mean famil ies would need to be split up and that sounds pretty unworkable.
there.
ed. But they would need to be very, very careful not to transmit the virus themselves. The standard PPE does not provide much of a barrier over the course of a working day with many healthcare workers getting sick and even dying. Such workers can also transmit the disease even if they are immune.
But they don't have anything like the number of virus particles to spread.
Wrong on two counts. 60% of the population has to get infected to provide enough herd immunity to stop the epidemic, and even at at 3.4% mortality rate that's only 2% of the population.
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