OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world - Page 7

Do you have a question? Post it now! No Registration Necessary

Translate This Thread From English to

Threaded View
Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world

Quoted text here. Click to load it

But since the temperature hasn't varied a lot, and the "tipping
points" never happened, nothing latched up forever, there must be
negative feedbacks. AGW theory assumes positive feedbacks.

Solar output changed climate then; so why not now?


--  

John Larkin   Highland Technology, Inc   trk

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Monday, April 2, 2018 at 7:05:47 PM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Well the ice ages look like bang-bang oscillators,
so there very well could be some reason to keep burning stuff.

I guess my only point about AGW is we need more data and  
models.  More skeptics in the climate modeling community .  

Something like that,  
George H.

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Monday, April 2, 2018 at 4:05:47 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

Quoted text here. Click to load it

What fantasy are you living in?  The creation  of an oxygen atmosphere
was a pretty big tipping point, and there have been numerous others.

The extinction of species is always a 'latched up forever' event,
and even minor things (desertification) that recover after a few
millenia are too slow in recovery for a human lifetime (or a recognizably
continuous cultural span).

'the temperature hasn't varied a lot', presumably meaning past temperature
changes, still hasn't penetrated more than a few feet into permafrost.   I'm not
sure how deep it will go, or what all the consequences are.    

Stop telling people not to be scared:  it's like that PA announcement in the
World Trade Center on 9/11/01, with some well-intentioned individual  
" instructing workers to stay in, or return to, their offices, instead of evacuating".

If your ancestors didn't die before puberty, it was because they knew when to be
scared.

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
wrote:

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Was there positive feedback associated with creating atmospheric
oxygen? I think not.

"Tipping point" in the AGW vocabulary means a positive feedback gain
Quoted text here. Click to load it
is required to have a high CO2 sensitivity, and tippling is necessary
to have a good panic.


Quoted text here. Click to load it

Actually, no: most of them knew generally to be scared. The few
exceptions were leaders and heroes.

The threat landscape has changes immensely in the past few hundred
years, but most people are still wired to be afraid.


--  

John Larkin   Highland Technology, Inc   trk

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Tuesday, April 3, 2018 at 12:40:36 PM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
y
re
 I'm not
Quoted text here. Click to load it
 the
Quoted text here. Click to load it
f evacuating".
Quoted text here. Click to load it
en to be
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Heroes and leaders know enough to be scared, and have the courage to do wha
t's necessary despite being scared.

It's the foolhardy who aren't scared, and they get themselves killed before
 they can do any good at all.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Perfectly correctly. There are a lot more real threats to be frightened of.

Any sensible person is nervous of the prospect of another asteroid hitting  
the earth - it hasn't happened for 65 million years, but we didn't know tha
t it had happened until a few decades ago. Anthropogenic global warming is  
a more immediate, if less severe, threat and we can do something about it.  
In fact we are doing something about it, but we could do more if the idiot  
fossil carbon extraction industry wasn't spending so much on lying about th
e nature of the threat, and gullible idiots like John Larkin had enough sen
se to realise that they were being lied to.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Monday, April 2, 2018 at 7:40:36 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it



Okay, then take the creation (from a storm) of a hurricane: in some conditions, a storm
that grows large enough to persist overnight will get enough energy gain from
sunlight and water to grow exponentially, becoming a hurricane or typhoon...
That's positive feedback.  it does happen that way.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

not AGW vocabulary, just colloquial American English.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Huh?  Radiative heat transfer causes CO2 sensitivity relevant to this discussion.
What is a good panic?
The tippling idea, though: yep, a brandy after dinner would be nice.


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On 03/04/2018 03:40, John Larkin wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Killing almost all the things that relied on a reducing atmosphere was a  
pretty big step as was laying down what are now our most valuable iron  
ores as the oxygen increased iron(II) stopped being water soluble.
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Tipping point means hysterisis in the system so that the chaotic  
attractor that drives our weather shifts to some other position. If that  
happens then things will be different - some ocean circulations will no  
longer work making some places colder but in a globally warmer world.

You can safely ignore the ultragreens who think that the Earth is  
fragile. It isn't and neither are the simulations. It is very hard to  
make the planet uninhabitable but it is quite easy to add 10m to sea  
level if you follow business as usual policies for too much longer.

This is a game where you control the acceleration and changes now will  
take considerable time to have their full effect on the climate.

I don't think we have much choice but to find out what lies beyond the  
next tipping point since there is no political will to prevent it. I am  
equally sure that when the chickens come home to roost the politicians  
will blame scientists for not explaining clearly enough what AGW means.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Radiative losses are determined by R = kT^4

Which means that for an increase in temperature dT that dR = 4kT^3dT

So provided that the AGW gain of the planet stays under 4 the whole  
system is unconditionally stable but with more water in the oceans. It  
is this longer term sea level rise that will hurt humanity the most if  
we are stupid enough to continue trashing the planet.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Tuesday, April 3, 2018 at 6:28:41 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:


Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
:


Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
:


Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
On Tuesday, April 3, 2018 at 6:28:41 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:


Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

There is not a lot I can do,  but I do what I can.  As improve the insulati
on in my house, lower the temperature the thermostat is set to at night, an
d use leds lamps instead of incandescent lamps.  Also replacing an central  
air coditioning system with a heat pump.  


There is not a lot I can do,  but I do what I can.  As improve the insulati
on in my house, lower the temperature the thermostat is set to at night, an
d use leds lamps instead of incandescent lamps.  Also replacing an central  
air coditioning system with a heat pump.  


Quoted text here. Click to load it

There is not a lot I can do,  but I do what I can.  As improve the insulati
on in my house, lower the temperature the thermostat is set to at night, an
d use leds lamps instead of incandescent lamps.  Also replacing an central  
air coditioning system with a heat pump.  


Quoted text here. Click to load it

There is not a lot I can do,  but I do what I can.  As improve the insulati
on in my house, lower the temperature the thermostat is set to at night, an
d use leds lamps instead of incandescent lamps.  Also replacing an central  
air coditioning system with a heat pump.  And I believe that PV cells will  
become more cost efficient with time.  When they clearly provide  cheaper p
ower than natural gas everyone will start using them.  So there are a lot o
f little things that will reduce the energy used per capita and also reduce
 the number of people.  These are things that will happen because there are
 economic reasons for them to happen.

I do not think a carbon tax will have a lasting effect over say forty years
. A carbon tax would provide for more public spending , which will require  
the use of more energy.  So I am with  George H.  Continue on as we are goi
ng for another ten years and see where we are.  

                                       Dan

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Tuesday, April 3, 2018 at 9:05:47 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
ave  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
rs.
erent  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
rect  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum looks very like the world hitting a ti
pping point, which dumped a lot of methane into the atmosphere over about 2
000 years, warming the place up by 5 degrees Kelvin, which then freed up a  
lot more methane over the next 20,000 years, warming it up even more.

Once the stocks of methane had been exhausted, the climate reovered over th
e next 200,000 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum

Looked at from the right perspective, the alternation between ice ages and  
interglacials happens at discrete tipping points. Ice sheets form on the mo
re northern land in the northern hemisphere, which cool the planet by refle
cting more light, which cools the oceans which soak up CO2, decreasing gree
nhouse warming. O the ice sheets melt and slide off into the oceans ...

Quoted text here. Click to load it

It's a productive assumption. It's impossible to go from the tiny Milankovi
tch fluctuations in insolation to an alternation between ice ages and inter
glacials without positive feedback.

The positive feedback does latch up for quite a while - ice ages are now la
sting close to 100,000 years, though they started off closer to 40,000 year
s.

It looks as if the more or less regular  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinrich_event

provide an opportunity for the less-northern northern hemisphere ice sheets
 to melt. Heinrich events seem to represent an instability in the ice sheet
s affected, and seem to coincide with some Dansgaard-Oeschger events

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/abrupt-climate-change/Heinrich%20and%20Dansgaard%
E2%80%93Oeschger%20Events  
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

The slow, and progressive, expansion of the sun has raised solar output by  
about 30% over the last five billion years. We've understood it since we wo
rked out how nuclear fusion fuels the sun. The cyclic variations in solar o
utput are tiny - about 0.1% - and not significant.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world

  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it







  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

There are many other factors, as the above articles show.  

AGW theory shows adding CO2 to the atmosphere increases global  
temperatures.

There are many positive and negative feedbacks. For example, increasing  
ocean temperatures forces CO2 out of solution. Melting permafrost releases  
CO2 from the soil. Warmer temperatures allows trees to grow faster, pulling  
CO2 from the air.
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

I don't understand your question.  
  


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Tuesday, April 3, 2018 at 1:03:08 PM UTC+10, Steve Wilson wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
s  
Quoted text here. Click to load it
ng  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

You have to realise that denialists use variation in solar output to explai
n the warming we are seeing at the moment, which means that the extra CO2 i
n the atmosphere actually isn't having any effect, and the fossil carbon ex
traction industry can go on making money by digging up fossil carbon and se
lling it as fuel. Obvious self-serving nonsense, but good enough to fool gu
llible suckers like John Larkin.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Monday, April 2, 2018 at 8:03:08 PM UTC-7, Steve Wilson wrote:

Quoted text here. Click to load it

A quibble, here: that's not related to anthropogenesis, it's  
thermodynamics 101 applied to our planet,  atmosphere, and sunlight.

It only becomes 'anthropogenic' when we account for human-caused
inputs and outputs in addition to knowing the sensitivity.   If
human action reduced greenhouse gasses, we'd have anthropogenic
global cooling, but the thermodynamics of radiative
heat transfer  would be exactly the same.

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On 03/04/2018 00:05, John Larkin wrote:

[snip]

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Tipping point is where there is significant positive feedback moving the  
planets weather to a new attractor. More like the effect of hysteresis  
in comparators or magnetic media once you go past a certain point it  
flips and you have to pedal in the other direction hard to flip it back.

The classic ones known to affect climate significantly are:

Insolation at 70N when it falls below a certain value more snow builds  
up on the large land masses reflecting more sunlight into space making  
it colder and forming glaciers. That is the initiation of an ice age.

In the other direction once you start warming up the same large land  
regions of permafrost you unlock huge quantities of sequestered carbon  
in the tundra as methane and carbon dioxide.

We are doing the same thing by burning vast amounts of fossil fuel.

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Because we have satellite monitoring of solar flux and have had since  
the 1970's. It hasn't changed by enough to explain the observations!

Only lying dittohead sites try to pretend that the solar variation can  
be used to explain away AGW. Roughly half of the temperature changes  
seen since 1840 can be allocated to solar variation but no more than  
that. The sunspot cycle represents a 0.1% ripple with period 11 years.

The suns output slowly increases over geological timescales - it was  
dimmer in the distant past but its rate of brightness change is so slow  
as to be imperceptible except over billions of years. There are minor  
fluctuations in output but the delay time for a photon to get from the  
core reactions to the photosphere is of the order of a million years.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Tuesday, April 3, 2018 at 8:27:19 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
fferent
re
direct
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Of course you have to have enough land close to the poles to build up the i
ce sheets on. Geologically speaking, this happens infrequently, which is wh
y there aren't that many ice ages in the geological record.

We've had them for the last 2.6 million years. Before that we had the Karoo
 Ice Ages from 360 to 260 million years ago. The one before that - the  And
ean-Saharan Ice ages, ran from 460 to 420 million years ago. They aren't th
at common.
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

The tundra around the Arctic Circle is releasing quite a bit of methane at  
the moment. Nothing significant as yet - we are dumping about 10 gigatonnes
 of carbon into the atmosphere every year, and the Arctic methane emissions
 were estimated at 17 million tonnes of methane per year in 2013, up from 3
.8 million tonnes estimated in 2006. There seems to be some 50 gigatonnes o
f methane up there that could come out fairly quickly with a bit more warmi
ng, out of a reservoir of perhaps 1400 gigatonnes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_emissions

Quoted text here. Click to load it
  
Quoted text here. Click to load it

Others have claimed about 100,000 years. It's not exactly accessible to dir
ect measurement, but there are a lot of photon scatterers along the route.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Monday, April 2, 2018 at 8:21:53 AM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:

Quoted text here. Click to load it

It progressed, with the passage of time, from that, but
I'm not certain what you mean by 'recover'.  

Planets orbit, and spin, but don't fail or succeed or stumble or recover.

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
wrote:

Quoted text here. Click to load it

I meant that 4000 PPM was not a latch-up, not a "tipping point." The
planet somehow got from > 4000 PPM to < 200 through carbon
sequestration.

Actually, we have been runing out of CO2 in the last hundred million
years, with a trend that would kill most of the plants on Earth.


--  

John Larkin   Highland Technology, Inc   trk

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
We've slightly trimmed the long signature. Click to see the full one.
Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Monday, April 2, 2018 at 4:09:51 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it



Did it do so in a time short compared to a growing season?  A human lifetime?  
A culture's span of existence?  The million years of the existence of humanity?
No, the half-life of that carbon was in the 50-100Myear range.    

A uA555 timer can be triggered in a short time, by a slow-slewing input,
that passes the threshold.  It then goes through a cycle that is timed
by components unrelated to the timing of the triggering input,  and for
the duration of that cycle, there is no sensitivity to the trigger input,  no
'recovery' of the original state.    

It IS done with an internal flip-flop, a latch.    Some triggers, you do NOT
want to pull.   Even if you know you can release it if something bad happens.

Your children can't wait even 50Myears for their next dinner.




Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Tuesday, April 3, 2018 at 9:09:51 AM UTC+10, John Larkin wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it
.

We've had intermittent ice ages for the last 2.6 million years which has al
lowed the oceans to soak up more CO2. The atmospheric CO2 level during an i
ce age is about 180ppm, versus 270ppm during a normal interglacial.

Plants work fine at both CO2 levels. Stomata in leaves tend to be a bit big
ger when CO2 level is low, so plants lose more water, but since the tempera
ture s lower, the partial pressure of water vapour in the leave is lower, t
hye don't lose as much extra water as you might think.

When the continents drifted into positions that allowed large scale glaciat
ion plants might have taken a hit, but they've adapted, and the plant popul
ations we've got now will take just as big a hit if we restore the climate  
to the state it was in 20 million years ago. That includes all the plants w
e grow for food ...

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On 02/04/2018 16:21, John Larkin wrote:
Quoted text here. Click to load it

[snip]

Quoted text here. Click to load it

4000ppm << 30000ppm (3%) and even that was still recoverable although a  
lot of high value real estate vanished as the seas rose inexorably.
(the CO2 level I chose is close to the human limit of tolerance)

4000ppm is slightly under 2^4 so around 12K warmer global temperatures.  
It means significantly higher sea levels - the planet is very resilient  
but if we provoke it sufficiently it will destroy a lot of very high  
value low lying populous land like London, Miami, Tokyo & Calcutta.

You can see the prehistoric raised beaches from the last geological warm  
period in parts of Scotland when seas were much higher than now. Wave  
cut platforms are left high and dry well away from the seashore.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world

Quoted text here. Click to load it

Exactly where is this "tipping point"?  I thought AlGore got rid of
her.

Site Timeline