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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Friday, March 30, 2018 at 1:53:50 AM UTC+11, snipped-for-privacy@krl.org wrote:
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Brexit hasn't happened yet. What were the predictions being tested against?

With any luck, the Brits will realise that the public were duped into making a bad decision, and - at the very least - test it again while taking more care to block expensive covert manipulations of public opinion.

Then again, they might just chuck it out.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On 29/03/18 15:53, snipped-for-privacy@krl.org wrote:
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I'll soon have black and white evidence about how much brexit
*will* reduce my income.

I was planning on drawing my pension after brexit. I've
been informed that the pension will be reduced if I do that.
I've asked "how much?", and I am waiting for the reply. (The
pension company is the slowest company I've ever come across
at replying: 10 day turnaround and it would be faster to walk
with the response from their offices to my house!)

And that's on top of the 15% fall in the pound after brexit.


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On 29/03/2018 15:53, snipped-for-privacy@krl.org wrote:
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Statins are probably better for most people than the alternative of  
clogged arteries, strokes and heart attacks even if a small number of  
them suffer unwanted side effects. I never liked margarine.

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Brexit hasn't happened yet. The main effects so far have been that the  
currency crashed and various multinationals are making active plans to  
move their HQ out of London. Our government is making an unbelievable  
mess of negotiating the exit and we may well crash out with no deal.

ARM might still be a British company if we had voted remain. The fall in  
the currency made them an easy takeover target for by Japan's Softbank.

The problem with populist policies is that for every difficult complex  
problem there is a really simple wrong answer. Brexit is one of them.

It will in fact harm the very people who voted for it the most.

--  
Regards,
Martin Brown

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On 30/03/18 13:46, Martin Brown wrote:
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And yesterday GKN fell.


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Just so.

And when they figure that out, where will people turn?
Probably the two indistinguishable bedfellows, the hard
left and hard right.

Welcome to the Weimar Republic, mark 2.

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On 30/03/18 13:46, Martin Brown wrote:
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That's what the "disaster capitalists" want, because there will
be rich pickings in the carcass.

At least one prominent brexiteer (John Redwood MP and ex cabinet
minister) is publicly advising his clients to get their money out
of the UK, since they will make less money here.


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Fri, 30 Mar 2018 13:46:37 +0100, Martin Brown

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Exactly.  Either you do or don't have unwanted side effects.  I don't.
Either you do or don't have clogged arteries.  I do.  Not much of a
decision here.  I don't mind margarine.  The stuff we use is just
vegetable oil anyway.  It actually tastes quite good (but isn't worth
a damn for baking).

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 10:27:51 AM UTC-4, John Larkin wrote:
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Global Warming works to within an order of magnitude, too.  Add CO2
and the planet will fry.  Or blossom.  Or plunge into an Ice Age.

Give or take.

Cheers,
James Arthur
~~~~~~
Four legs good, CO2 baadddd.

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Friday, March 30, 2018 at 2:45:55 AM UTC+11, snipped-for-privacy@yahoo.com wrote:
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on
e

Global warming is an observable phenomenon, not a theory. The predictions m
ade earlier about today's climate have been much closer than "within an ord
er of magnitude".

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James Arthur cant' do quantitative thinking - or doesn't want to, because h
e doesn't know the numbers.

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum

records a rapid 5 degree Kelvin temperature rise over about 2000 years, tha
t is accompanied by a sudden drop the Carbon 13 to Carbon 12 ratio in carbo
nated deposited at the time, which seems to reflect the sudden release of p
erhaps 500 gigatons of carbon as methane during this period. The release ra
te was modest - some 0.2 gigatons per year, peaking at 0.58 gigatons per ye
ar - while we are releasing about 10 gigatons per year (and only some of it
 is methane).

The total carbon dumped into atmosphere over the PETM was somewhere between
 2000 and 7000 gigatons spread over about 20,000 years.

That's the observational evidence (from paleology).  

The earth got warmer (but didn't exactly fry). It may have blossomed, but n
ot enough to be obvious from the geological record. It certainly didn't plu
nge into an ice age, but the land mass distribution at the time isn't one t
hat would have been compatible with the formation of thick and stable ice s
heets - few are.

James Arthur is less than well-informed, and may be deliberately spreading  
misinformation - denialism is one of several right-wing delusions he active
ly supports.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Friday, March 30, 2018 at 1:27:51 AM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
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 led > >> >> to glaciation."
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ed  
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Physicists do concentrate on problems where simple mathematical models work
.
As an approach, it has produced impressive results, but a lot of the real w
orld is more complicated than that.

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Human beings are remarkably complicated constructions. The models of what's
 going on inside our bodes and our brains are grossly over-simplified (as t
hey have to be if they are to be manipulable enough top be useful). Chemist
ry had phlogiston theory at one point ...

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ame.

Half of it has below average intelligence, and quite a few of the bright pe
ople prefer beliefs they like to belief's that are evidence-based. John Lar
kin's rejection of anthropogenic global warming is a prime example.

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Weather predictions aren't too bad these days - but the butterfly effect me
ans that they can't be much good for more than about ten days.

The solar system has the same problem, but it only starts showing up when y
ou try to predict more than a million years in advance.

The US public's aversion to climate predictions is largely due to what is b
eing predicted - the predictions are too long term for their rejection to b
e evidence-based.

Economics is a special case. Anybody with enough money can buy the kind of  
prediction they want, and endow a chair at some university to give their ta
me prophet academic respectability. "Social engineering" is merely tinkerin
g by ideologically motivated nut-cases. Social science is strictly in the o
bservational evidence-collecting phase at the moment.

https://www.amazon.com/Social-Physics-Networks-Make-Smarter/dp/0143126334
  
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Statins are useful drugs, with side-effects. Nobody went around saying that
 they were "healthy", and more than they say that penicillin is healhty.

Margarine is a food, and the people who sold it made all sorts of claims ab
out it. Advertising claims aren't science, even if the actors in the advert
isements put on white coats to make their claims.

John Larkin is a gullible twit, and his understanding of the world is corre
spondingly shallow and frequently inadequate. Naturally, he doesn't appreci
ate quite how little he knows, or quite how much of what he thinks he knows
 has been inculcated to make him a more profitable customer.

--  
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world

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Wrong again. Butter and climate are different things. See this article:
  
"EPA to its employees: Ignore science when talking about climate change"

174 comments to date. Most believe the climate predictions and trash the EPA.

https://tinyurl.com/ybktrfc5


Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 10:15:18 AM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
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Years ago I was in New Orleans, boarding a plane ahead of two nerds gushing
about fuzzy logic.

(This was back when Bob Pease was, similarly, annoyed by it, after years
of breathless reports going nowhere in EE Times by R. Colin Johnson.)

"Fuzzy logic?," I asked loudly. Their heads snapped toward me.  "Well,
I guess it's better than than no logic at all," turned, and walked onto
the plane.

Cheers,
James Arthur

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thu, 29 Mar 2018 08:39:30 -0700 (PDT), snipped-for-privacy@yahoo.com
wrote:

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Fuzzy Logic is thankfully gone. For some strange reason, Neural
Networks linger.


--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing   precision measurement  

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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thu, 29 Mar 2018 10:27:54 -0700, John Larkin

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No, it's certainly not gone.  Democrats have fully embraced it.

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Wednesday, March 28, 2018 at 9:39:40 PM UTC-4, George Herold wrote:
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And that's a problem, isn't it?  Believing on faith in others, who are
taking it on faith, isn't science.

The gentleman I swapped notions with a decade ago--one of the model-writers
at NOAA--said it was b.s., not science.

So the real scientists simply went about their jobs, cringing as their
politician-bosses spouted scientifically unsupportable predictions
designed to glorify their departments, rationalize their existence,
and justify their need for more funding.

But neither he nor any of his NOAA colleagues dared say so because they'd
be instantly terminated.

Settled science?  Here's a simple test: if it's settled science then it
should be easy to show models being relied on today for <whatever>
predictions
 a) correctly predicted today's surface and ocean temperatures, and
 b) still use 2003's same 'settled' fiddle factors, e.g. dT/d(CO2).

Cheers,
James Arthur

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 8:16:46 AM UTC-7, snipped-for-privacy@yahoo.com wrote:

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An anonymous mystery source?  The Oracle at Delphi can go
you one better, she gets it from Apollo.   I hope you aren't
believing on faith, because that's a problem.

Members of a complex society do rely on specialists.   That's
not a  bad thing.   And, it's not 'faith'.

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
wrote:

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But it often is faith. Entire fields of specialists are sometimes all
wrong. Just because a few thousand self-declared experts agree doesn't
make them right.


--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing   precision measurement  

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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 12:57:07 PM UTC-7, John Larkin wrote:
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In the sciences, it's 'few thousand observations' or 'few thousand experiments'.
Not persons, phenomena.
You're thinking of some other 'expert' field, I guess.    

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
wrote:

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Climate experiments? Macroeconomic experiments? Nutrition experiments?


--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing   precision measurement  

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Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thursday, March 29, 2018 at 4:14:31 PM UTC-4, whit3rd wrote:
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No,  
I think you can find lots of examples of two or three (or one)  
big guys in a field, getting an idea, and that idea can dominate
the field for a long time.  It probably happens more  
in medicine and nutrition.

George H.  

Re: OT: Greenland is literally cracking apart and flooding the world
On Thu, 29 Mar 2018 14:44:03 -0700 (PDT), George Herold

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"Science progresses one funeral at a time."


--  

John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc
picosecond timing   precision measurement  

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