No Wonder Skeptics Are Confused

The Physics of Jet Stream Meandering

"Advances in Systems Science and Application (2015) Vol.15 No.3 294-302The Physics of Jet Stream MeanderingWalter E JanachMeggenhornstrasse 20, CH-604

5 Meggen, SwitzerlandAbstractLarge-amplitude jet stream meanders involve di abatic processes because conser-vation of angular momentum leads to vortex line stretching and shrinking. Thisrequires latent heat release during pole ward ?ow in contrast to cooling by sub-limation and radiation durin g equatorward ?ow. Moisture and its distribution,together with aero sols, play a key role. The increase of anthopogenic aerosols inthe upper tr oposphere could be a cause for the more frequent large-amplitude jetstream meanders.Keywords Angular momentum, potential vorticity, latent heat, radia tive cooling,sublimation cooling, Rossby waves.1 IntroductionAs the jet str eam ?ows from west to east, Rossby waves can form. Large merid-iona l excursions of the jet stream in form of meanders occur between alternatin gwarm high-pressure ridges extending polewards and cold low-pressure trough sextending equatorwards. The balanced geostrophic ?ow of the jet st ream is atright angle to the horizontal gradient of the pressure ?e ld, so that the resultinghorizontal pressure force is balanced by the horiz ontal component of the Coriolisforce. At the same time the angular momentum of air parcels in the ?ow remain-s constant in the absolute system , which can be expressed by the conservationof potential vorticity. Angular momentum remains constant also during hori-zontal convergence with vortex line expansion, visualized by a ballerina pullingher stretched arms close t o her body in order to accelerate the spinning rate,or during horizontal di vergence with vortex line shrinking. Potential vorticityP V =?g( ?+f)??/?p is the sum of relative vorticity ?and pl anetary vorticity f(Coriolis parameter) times the di?erence ? ? of potential temperature between thebottom and the top isobaric surf aces of an air parcel divided by the correspond-ing pressure di?ere nce ?p, with standard gravity g [1].The pressure di?erence ? ?pbetween the bottom and top of an air parcel increases during horizontal conver-gence with vortex line stretching, while divergence lets the pressu re di?erence ?pdecrease with vortex line shrinking."

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m_Meandering

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bloggs.fredbloggs.fred
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On Thursday, January 17, 2019 at 8:44:38 PM UTC-5, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wrote:

e Physics of Jet Stream MeanderingWalter E JanachMeggenhornstrasse 20, CH-6

045 Meggen, SwitzerlandAbstractLarge-amplitude jet stream meanders involve diabatic processes because conser-vation of angular momentum leads to vorte x line stretching and shrinking. Thisrequires latent heat release during po leward ?ow in contrast to cooling by sub-limation and radiation dur ing equatorward ?ow. Moisture and its distribution,together with ae rosols, play a key role. The increase of anthopogenic aerosols inthe upper troposphere could be a cause for the more frequent large-amplitude jetstrea m meanders.Keywords Angular momentum, potential vorticity, latent heat, rad iative cooling,sublimation cooling, Rossby waves.1 IntroductionAs the jet s tream ?ows from west to east, Rossby waves can form. Large merid-io nal excursions of the jet stream in form of meanders occur between alternat ingwarm high-pressure ridges extending polewards and cold low-pressure trou ghsextending equatorwards. The balanced geostrophic ?ow of the jet stream is atright angle to the horizontal gradient of the pressure ? ?eld, so that the resultinghorizontal pressure force is balanced by the h orizontal component of the Coriolisforce. At the same time the angular mome ntum of air parcels in the ?ow remain-s constant in the absolute sy stem, which can be expressed by the conservationof potential vorticity. Ang ular momentum remains constant also during hori-zontal convergence with vor tex line expansion, visualized by a ballerina pullingher stretched arms clo se to her body in order to accelerate the spinning rate,or during horizonta l divergence with vortex line shrinking. Potential vorticityP V =? ?g(?+f)??/?p is the sum of relative vorticity ?a nd planetary vorticity f(Coriolis parameter) times the di?erence ?? of potential temperature between thebottom and the top isobari c surfaces of an air parcel divided by the correspond-ing pressure di? ?erence ?p, with standard gravity g [1].The pressure di?eren ce ?pbetween the bottom and top of an air parcel increases during hori zontal conver-gence with vortex line stretching, while divergence lets the pressure di?erence ?pdecrease with vortex line shrinking."

eam_Meandering

Fred, how about an electronics post.

George H.

Reply to
George Herold

On Thursday, January 17, 2019 at 8:44:38 PM UTC-5, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wrote:

e Physics of Jet Stream MeanderingWalter E JanachMeggenhornstrasse 20, CH-6

045 Meggen, SwitzerlandAbstractLarge-amplitude jet stream meanders involve diabatic processes because conser-vation of angular momentum leads to vorte x line stretching and shrinking. Thisrequires latent heat release during po leward ?ow in contrast to cooling by sub-limation and radiation dur ing equatorward ?ow. Moisture and its distribution,together with ae rosols, play a key role. The increase of anthopogenic aerosols inthe upper troposphere could be a cause for the more frequent large-amplitude jetstrea m meanders.Keywords Angular momentum, potential vorticity, latent heat, rad iative cooling,sublimation cooling, Rossby waves.1 IntroductionAs the jet s tream ?ows from west to east, Rossby waves can form. Large merid-io nal excursions of the jet stream in form of meanders occur between alternat ingwarm high-pressure ridges extending polewards and cold low-pressure trou ghsextending equatorwards. The balanced geostrophic ?ow of the jet stream is atright angle to the horizontal gradient of the pressure ? ?eld, so that the resultinghorizontal pressure force is balanced by the h orizontal component of the Coriolisforce. At the same time the angular mome ntum of air parcels in the ?ow remain-s constant in the absolute sy stem, which can be expressed by the conservationof potential vorticity. Ang ular momentum remains constant also during hori-zontal convergence with vor tex line expansion, visualized by a ballerina pullingher stretched arms clo se to her body in order to accelerate the spinning rate,or during horizonta l divergence with vortex line shrinking. Potential vorticityP V =? ?g(?+f)??/?p is the sum of relative vorticity ?a nd planetary vorticity f(Coriolis parameter) times the di?erence ?? of potential temperature between thebottom and the top isobari c surfaces of an air parcel divided by the correspond-ing pressure di? ?erence ?p, with standard gravity g [1].The pressure di?eren ce ?pbetween the bottom and top of an air parcel increases during hori zontal conver-gence with vortex line stretching, while divergence lets the pressure di?erence ?pdecrease with vortex line shrinking."

eam_Meandering

=?g(?+f)??/?p ... anyone who posts that mus t be really smart

Reply to
blocher

On Thursday, January 17, 2019 at 10:17:32 PM UTC-5, snipped-for-privacy@columbus.rr.com wrote:

om wrote:

The Physics of Jet Stream MeanderingWalter E JanachMeggenhornstrasse 20, CH

-6045 Meggen, SwitzerlandAbstractLarge-amplitude jet stream meanders involv e diabatic processes because conser-vation of angular momentum leads to vor tex line stretching and shrinking. Thisrequires latent heat release during poleward ?ow in contrast to cooling by sub-limation and radiation d uring equatorward ?ow. Moisture and its distribution,together with aerosols, play a key role. The increase of anthopogenic aerosols inthe uppe r troposphere could be a cause for the more frequent large-amplitude jetstr eam meanders.Keywords Angular momentum, potential vorticity, latent heat, r adiative cooling,sublimation cooling, Rossby waves.1 IntroductionAs the jet stream ?ows from west to east, Rossby waves can form. Large merid- ional excursions of the jet stream in form of meanders occur between altern atingwarm high-pressure ridges extending polewards and cold low-pressure tr oughsextending equatorwards. The balanced geostrophic ?ow of the je t stream is atright angle to the horizontal gradient of the pressure ? ?eld, so that the resultinghorizontal pressure force is balanced by the h orizontal component of the Coriolisforce. At the same time the angular mome ntum of air parcels in the ?ow remain-s constant in the absolute sy stem, which can be expressed by the conservationof potential vorticity. Ang ular momentum remains constant also during hori-zontal convergence with vor tex line expansion, visualized by a ballerina pullingher stretched arms clo se to her body in order to accelerate the spinning rate,or during horizonta l divergence with vortex line shrinking. Potential vorticityP V =? ?g(?+f)??/?p is the sum of relative vorticity ?a nd planetary vorticity f(Coriolis parameter) times the di?erence ?? of potential temperature between thebottom and the top isobari c surfaces of an air parcel divided by the correspond-ing pressure di? ?erence ?p, with standard gravity g [1].The pressure di?eren ce ?pbetween the bottom and top of an air parcel increases during hori zontal conver-gence with vortex line stretching, while divergence lets the pressure di?erence ?pdecrease with vortex line shrinking."

tream_Meandering

ust be really smart

It's just the mathematical expression for potential vorticity:

"Potential vorticity (PV) is seen as one of the important theoretical succe sses of modern meteorology. It is a simplified approach for understanding f luid motions in a rotating system such as the Earth's atmosphere and ocean. Its development traces back to the circulation theorem by Bjerknes in 1898 ,[1] which is a specialized form of Kelvin's circulation theorem. Starting from Hoskins et al., 1985,[2] PV has been more commonly used in operational weather diagnosis such as tracing dynamics of air parcels and inverting fo r the full flow field. Even after detailed numerical weather forecasts on f iner scales were made possible by increases in computational power, the PV view is still used in academia and routine weather forecasts, shedding ligh t on the synoptic scale features for forecasters and researchers.[3]"

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The point is the flip side of superficial arguments used by people who crit icize these complicated weather models to predict the future course of glob al warming. I don't see a damned one of them getting into the complicated p hysics and fluid dynamics to explain the errors and thus demonstrate that t he physics, which we do know for certain, confidently predicts planetary wa rming to be a non-issue.

Reply to
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred

Of course not. Our point is that "the physics" can't predict much of anything in either weather or climate.

Our 5-day forecasts change daily, and even 12-hour forecasts are often dead wrong.

Our "perpetual California drought" has us at 103% of longterm average snow water content, and the reservoirs will probably have to be dumped to avoid overflow. One town a bit north of here got 8" of rain in two days this week.

The base at Sugar Bowl is over 10 feet, and we usually get most of our snow later in the season.

So find something else to despair over; drought won't do.

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John Larkin

302The Physics of Jet Stream MeanderingWalter E JanachMeggenhornstrasse 20, CH-6045 Meggen, SwitzerlandAbstractLarge-amplitude jet stream meanders inv olve diabatic processes because conser-vation of angular momentum leads to vortex line stretching and shrinking. Thisrequires latent heat release duri ng poleward ?ow in contrast to cooling by sub-limation and radiation during equatorward ?ow. Moisture and its distribution,together with aerosols, pla y a key role. The increase of anthopogenic aerosols inthe upper troposphere could be a cause for the more frequent large-amplitude jetstream meanders. Keywords Angular momentum, potential vorticity, latent heat, radiative cool ing,sublimation cooling, Rossby waves.1 IntroductionAs the jet stream ?ows from west to east, Rossby waves can form. Large merid-ional excursions of t he jet stream in form of meanders occur between alternatingwarm high-pressu re ridges extending

ced geostrophic ?ow of the jet stream is atright angle to the horizontal gr adient of the pressure ?eld, so that the resultinghorizontal pressure force is balanced by the horizontal component of the Coriolisforce. At the same time the angular momentum of air parcels in the ?ow remain-s constant in th e absolute system, which can be expressed by the conservationof potential v orticity. Angular momentum remains constant also during hori-zontal converg ence with vortex line expansion, visualized by a ballerina pullingher stret ched arms close to her body in order to accelerate the spinning rate,or dur ing horizontal divergence with vortex line shrinking. Potential vorticityP V =?g(?+f)??/?p is the sum of relative vorticity ?and planetary vorticity f(Coriolis parameter) times the di?erence ?? of potential temperature betw een thebottom and the top isobaric surfaces of an air parcel divided by the correspond-ing pressure

en the bottom and top of an air parcel increases during horizontal conver-g ence with vortex line stretching, while divergence lets the pressure di?ere nce ?pdecrease with vortex line shrinking."

t_Stream_Meandering

ccesses of modern meteorology. It is a simplified approach for understandin g fluid motions in a rotating system such as the Earth's atmosphere and oce an. Its development traces back to the circulation theorem by Bjerknes in 1

898,[1] which is a specialized form of Kelvin's circulation theorem. Starti ng from Hoskins et al., 1985,[2] PV has been more commonly used in operatio nal weather diagnosis such as tracing dynamics of air parcels and inverting for the full flow field. Even after detailed numerical weather forecasts o n finer scales were made possible by increases in computational power, the PV view is still used in academia and routine weather forecasts, shedding l ight on the synoptic scale features for forecasters and researchers.[3]"

riticize these complicated weather models to predict the future course of g lobal warming. I don't see a damned one of them getting into the complicate d physics and fluid dynamics to explain the errors and thus demonstrate tha t the physics, which we do know for certain, confidently predicts planetary warming to be a non-issue.

Excuse me, but when you get a year's worth of precipitation over a two week period, and then nothing at all for the other 50 weeks, you have a drought . The annual average becomes a ridiculous figure to cite.

Reply to
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred

18 Jan 2019 06:44:22 -0800 (PST),

. snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wrote:

, 2019 at 10:17:32 PM UTC-5, snipped-for-privacy@columbus.rr.com wr ote:

cs of Jet Stream Meandering

ystems Science and Application (2015) Vol.15 No.3 294-

302The Physics of Jet Stream MeanderingWalter E Janach Meggenhornstrasse 20, CH-6045 Meggen, SwitzerlandAbstr actLarge-amplitude jet stream meanders involve diabati c processes because conser-vation of angular momentum leads to vortex line stretching and shrinking. Thisreq uires latent heat release during poleward ?ow in contr ast to cooling by sub-limation and radiation during eq uatorward ?ow. Moisture and its distribution,together with aerosols, play a key role. The increase of anthop ogenic aerosols inthe upper troposphere could be a cau se for the more frequent large-amplitude jetstream mea nders.Keywords Angular momentum, potential vorticity, latent heat, radiative cooling,sublimation cooling, Ro ssby waves.1 IntroductionAs the jet stream ?ows from w est to east, Rossby waves can form. Large merid-ional excursions of the jet stream in form of meanders occur between alternatingwarm high-pressure ridges extendin g

equatorwards. The balanced geostrophic ?ow of the jet stream is atright angle to the horizontal gradient of the pressure ?eld, so that the resultinghorizontal pr essure force is balanced by the horizontal component o f the Coriolisforce. At the same time the angular mome ntum of air parcels in the ?ow remain-s constant in th e absolute system, which can be expressed by the conse rvationof potential vorticity. Angular momentum remain s constant also during hori-zontal convergence with vo rtex line expansion, visualized by a ballerina pulling her stretched arms close to her body in order to accel erate the spinning rate,or during horizontal divergenc e with vortex line shrinking. Potential vorticityP V = ?g(?+f)??/?p is the sum of relative vorticity ?and pla netary vorticity f(Coriolis parameter) times the di?er ence ?? of potential temperature between thebottom and the top isobaric surfaces of an air parcel divided by the correspond-ing pressure

andard gravity g [1].The pressure di?erence ?pbetween the bottom and top of an air parcel increases during h orizontal conver-gence with vortex line stretching, wh ile divergence lets the pressure di?erence ?pdecrease with vortex line shrinking."

.. anyone who posts that must be really smart

It's just the mathematical expression for potential vo rticity:

one of the important theoretical successes of modern m eteorology. It is a simplified approach for understand ing fluid motions in a rotating system such as the Ear th's atmosphere and ocean. Its development traces back to the circulation theorem by Bjerknes in 1898,[1] wh ich is a specialized form of Kelvin's circulation theo rem. Starting from Hoskins et al., 1985,[2] PV has bee n more commonly used in operational weather diagnosis such as tracing dynamics of air parcels and inverting for the full flow field. Even after detailed numerical weather forecasts on finer scales were made possible by increases in computational power, the PV view is st ill used in academia and routine weather forecasts, sh edding light on the synoptic scale features for foreca sters and researchers.[3]"

e flip side of superficial arguments used by people wh o criticize these complicated weather models to predic t the future course of global warming. I don't see a d amned one of them getting into the complicated physics and fluid dynamics to explain the errors and thus dem onstrate that the physics, which we do know for certai n, confidently predicts planetary warming to be a non- issue.

ysics" can't predict much of

ther or climate.

ly, and even 12-hour forecasts are often

.

Weather forecasts in New England are remarkably g ood given the usual old saws about New England weath er's unpredictability.

My forecast has been saying it's going to snow here on Sunday for four days now, it'll be only the second major snowfall of the year w hich is rather unusual. I'm confident we're going to get some.

us at 103% of longterm average

and the reservoirs will probably have to be dumped

to avoid overflow. One town a bit north of here got 8 " of rain in two

Sugar Bowl is over 10 feet, and we usually get most o f our

thing else to despair over; drought won't do.

Reply to
bitrex

On 01/18/2019 02:11 PM, bitrex wrote: The point is the flip side of superficial arguments used by people

A couple years ago I think it may have been 2015, January thru March it was awful there were about six major snowstorms over a period of ten weeks with accumulations of over 6" for each of them, most of them hit on the weekend too naturally. As far as I recall the forecasters predicted all of them accurately at least 5 days out.

Reply to
bitrex

Sigh. When I read obvious bullshit like that I know they're trying to blind us with science in the hope we just accept it all without question. It makes me even more convinced that the whole GW thing is just a giant scam.

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Reply to
Cursitor Doom

But, why wouldn't daily updates be a good thing? The 12-hour forecasts are always right, as far as I can tell. What does 'dead wrong' mean? A shower forecast for your area might be correct even if the rainfall ony hits a few miles from your location, you know. It's all the same city...

Weather forecasts have a lot of information, it's correct enough to be useful. There's no 'dead wrong' going on.

Reply to
whit3rd

Annual average is about 20 inches. 8" is not a year's worth. But some years we might get 10, some years 40. It doesn't rain all summer, so our rain and snow is delivered in a few big winter storms. I like it.

Precipitation here is very erratic, day to day and year to year, and has been since records started in the 1860's. The patterns haven't changed much in that time. The Indians warned the first Spanish settlers about floods and droughts and massive fires.

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If you look at a satellite image, what's notable is that in most places in the US, big weather fronts are sorta obvious and predictions are reasonable. But the US west coast is dominated by chaotic swirls and atmospheric rivers, so the forecasts are terrible.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
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Reply to
John Larkin

We get the chaotic messes off the Pacific and lowpass filter them for you.

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Reply to
John Larkin

They would if the predictions about tomorrow's weather didn't change so radically.

The 12-hour forecasts are always

Sunshine instead of rain, for example.

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Reply to
John Larkin

Why don't the people who made the errors explain them?

Meandering jet streams are another example of the phenomenon of meandering rivers, honey coiling when poured, and train wrecks forming serpentine rows of cars. Those are not caused by "anthopogenic aerosols."

Reply to
Tom Del Rosso

Looks like there's no getting around the extreme sensitivity of these model s to inputs about which we have inexact information, like these atmospheric aerosol concentrations. And then things are complicated by circular intera ctions between all these high sensitivity inputs and outputs.

Reply to
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred

This is more interesting.

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Reply to
Winfield Hill

The Camp Fire wouldn't have happened if you didn't have a short summer drought, thoroughly drying grass and brush, etc., and the rain that failed to come before dry high Santa Ana winds arrived. Shortly after the fire was out, the rain came. Not a good thing.

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Reply to
Winfield Hill

That's about the normal weather pattern.

Plants grow here and then they burn. The average piece of California used to burn about every 10 years, and the fires were just part of the natural cycle. Now, we put out the fires with massive resources, so the fuel loads build up for decades. The fires used to be small enough to burn off the small stuff and let the natives walk away and the big trees survive.

If the fuel loads build without limit, there will always be an ignition source. The later it starts, the bigger the fire will be.

Paradise CA was a firebomb waiting to happen. What's impressive is that blocks and blocks of housing, basically the entire town, burned but most of the trees *didn't* burn.

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Paradise was also a maze of dead end streets. It was idiotic.

On our property in Truckee, we are required to clean up the brush and pine needles and low tree limbs and maintain a defensable space around the cabin. The first floor is concrete blocks and the roof is steel. No flaming ember is going to burn us down.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
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Reply to
John Larkin

All of which makes the models silly.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
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Reply to
John Larkin

That's a short answer, but not a clear one. Rain stops, the sun comes out, and you can get BOTH, not either 'instead'.

On a five-day forecast, what were the differences, I wonder? And what were the similarities?

Reply to
whit3rd

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