Mr. M vs. SEC: Magic Numbers

Magic Number:

#1 420 #2 500,000 #3 700,000?

Mr. M claims to have 1M RoboTaxis on the road by 2020. That's less than a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anything?

Reply to
edward.ming.lee
Loading thread data ...

a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anything ?

No, that is over a year and a half. "By 2020" means by some point in 2020. Now redo your maths. Also, I'm not clear on your numbers. They have mad e a LOT of cars to date. They will have another factory open this year (in theory) churning out another third of a million a year. The statements of Shanghai being open by the end of this year are exactly that, the end of t his year.

There is also the issue that talking about expectations in the following ye ar is far enough out that it would not be considered guidance in the same w ay as an annual report.

--
  Rick C. 

  - Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
gnuarm.deletethisbit

On Friday, April 26, 2019 at 9:49:49 AM UTC-7, snipped-for-privacy@gmail.com wrote :

:

n a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anythi ng?

  1. Now redo your maths. Also, I'm not clear on your numbers. They have m ade a LOT of cars to date. They will have another factory open this year ( in theory) churning out another third of a million a year. The statements of Shanghai being open by the end of this year are exactly that, the end of this year.

I don't know at what point of production they claims to be self drivable, b ut any car over a year old probably don't have the necessary stuffs. So, i f by their gross (negligence) estimate of self-driving hardware (plus softw are updates), i would be surprise to find more than 300,000.

Reply to
edward.ming.lee

te:

te:

han a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is implyin g a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anyt hing?

020. Now redo your maths. Also, I'm not clear on your numbers. They have made a LOT of cars to date. They will have another factory open this year (in theory) churning out another third of a million a year. The statement s of Shanghai being open by the end of this year are exactly that, the end of this year.

but any car over a year old probably don't have the necessary stuffs. So, if by their gross (negligence) estimate of self-driving hardware (plus sof tware updates), i would be surprise to find more than 300,000.

I was reading about just that. I believe they are using gen 3 hardware in all model 3 cars. The S and X are still using gen 2 hardware. So we may n eed upgrades, but I expect they will offer it. There is word on the street they will include it in new S and X models when they get a refresh in the near future.

Even so, it is not clear that the gen 3 software will be required for full self driving.

--
  Rick C. 

  + Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
gnuarm.deletethisbit

rote:

rote:

than a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is imply ing a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying an ything?

2020. Now redo your maths. Also, I'm not clear on your numbers. They ha ve made a LOT of cars to date. They will have another factory open this ye ar (in theory) churning out another third of a million a year. The stateme nts of Shanghai being open by the end of this year are exactly that, the en d of this year.

e, but any car over a year old probably don't have the necessary stuffs. S o, if by their gross (negligence) estimate of self-driving hardware (plus s oftware updates), i would be surprise to find more than 300,000.

n all model 3 cars. The S and X are still using gen 2 hardware. So we may need upgrades, but I expect they will offer it. There is word on the stre et they will include it in new S and X models when they get a refresh in th e near future.

l self driving.

Too early to tell, it is also not clear that the gen 3 hardware will be suf ficient for full self driving.

The system has not been proven (acceptable by regulations) yet; so, it may yet require another updates for all cars in the future.

Expecting regulatory approvals in less than 1.5 years is just gross neglige nce miss-representation.

Reply to
edward.ming.lee

ote:

e:

ss than a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is imp lying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anything?

in 2020. Now redo your maths. Also, I'm not clear on your numbers. They have made a LOT of cars to date. They will have another factory open this year (in theory) churning out another third of a million a year. The state ments of Shanghai being open by the end of this year are exactly that, the end of this year.

ble, but any car over a year old probably don't have the necessary stuffs. So, if by their gross (negligence) estimate of self-driving hardware (plus software updates), i would be surprise to find more than 300,000.

in all model 3 cars. The S and X are still using gen 2 hardware. So we m ay need upgrades, but I expect they will offer it. There is word on the st reet they will include it in new S and X models when they get a refresh in the near future.

ull self driving.

ufficient for full self driving.

y yet require another updates for all cars in the future.

gence miss-representation.

I think you are reading too much into what he said. Here is the headline I read...

"Elon Musk claims Tesla will have 1 million robotaxis on roads next year, b ut warns he?s missed the mark before"

Elon often qualifies his statements. He knows he is promoting rather than actually forecasting.

One very clear fly in the ointment for the robotaxi as he described for car owners... if everyone can be a taxi service, the supply can easily outstri p the demand. But I guess at some point people would just stop buying cars and only use taxis. Still, it will reach some level where the cost of the taxi would be comparable to the cost of owning the car plus some profit, l imiting the *big* money to be made this way.

--
  Rick C. 

  -- Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
gnuarm.deletethisbit

Tesla lost 0.7 gigabucks last quarter. Sales are down. They will run out of cash. The only way they can survive is to raise more investment dollars, and the only way to do that is for Boy Genius to promise some technology breakthrough even spiffier than what they have now.

Good chance the entire empire will crash, Solar City and Boring and Powerwall and all. Maybe the SpaceX rocket thing will survive.

I wonder how many of the car deposits were actually low-risk speculations, and how many will become sales.

--
John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
picosecond timing   precision measurement  
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
John Larkin

a year away. Even if every single T car will participle, he is implying a production of at least 700,000 by 2020. Why is the SEC not saying anythin g?

Larkin is far from a financial genius. While Tesla may need to raise more capital funds, they are a long way from going under. At the end of the qua rter they had $2.2 billion in cash equivalents, so they could continue to l ose money at the current rate if necessary, but it's not going to happen. They are undergoing a transition while ramping up for sales in China and Eu rope and the current situation was expected by anyone familiar with the sto ck. I've been posting in a Tesla forum about this to much derision by the fanboys.

The good news is that by the end of the year the Shanghai factory is expect ed to be online and bringing in more revenue. Even if it is late the curre nt quarter will not be repeated again with sales of the model 3 ramping up in China and Europe. So the outlook for 2020 is good.

A good example of Larkin's lack of knowledge is that he is still going on a bout the reservations while they are pretty much played out. He doesn't kn ow much about Tesla because he has adopted a bias about the company apparen tly because of a personal dislike for Musk. Oh well, no accounting for tas te.

--
  Rick C. 

  -+ Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
gnuarm.deletethisbit

Just what we need. We already have most cars transporting only one person. Soon our roads will be clogged with cars transporting no one.

Jeroen Belleman

Reply to
Jeroen Belleman

Lol! So then we can convert all the parking lots back to paradise.

--
  Rick C. 

  +- Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
gnuarm.deletethisbit

Err.... the last-quarter draw from cash reserves is for a good reason, they're expanding.

Sales 'are down' may be because they filled a bunch of backed-up preorders in the previous quarter.

There's no imminent 'run out of cash' situation. It's a reminder of the Apple situation about 20 years ago: a couple of pundits thought it was too small to survive. October 2018, Apple was the largest corporation (market capitalization) in the world.

Reply to
whit3rd

s
e

on

I wouldn't compare Tesla at this stage to Apple. Tesla is in a *very* capi tal intensive business and needs to introduce new products successfully as well as entice the world to convert to a new paradigm of automotive propuls ion. It is too early to say any of this has been successful.

I expect by the end of the year we will have a better idea if Tesla will be around in 5 years or not. It is not inconceivable that five years from no w they will not have been successful and will have to close the doors. On the other hand, of things go according to plan they may be on the way to be coming the largest auto maker in the world.

--
  Rick C. 

  ++ Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
gnuarm.deletethisbit

ers

the

tion

pital intensive business and needs to introduce new products successfully a s well as entice the world to convert to a new paradigm of automotive propu lsion. It is too early to say any of this has been successful.

be around in 5 years or not. It is not inconceivable that five years from now they will not have been successful and will have to close the doors. O n the other hand, of things go according to plan they may be on the way to becoming the largest auto maker in the world.

One thing to consider is that they have to separate the self-driving stuffs from car building stuffs. For self-driving to grow, our car makers has to adopt it. If not, they will just support something else. No car makers w ould support another makers' tech, no matter how good it is. For example, Tesla was far ahead in charging tech, but everybody else went to a differen t tech.

Reply to
edward.ming.lee

n
,

rders

f the

ration

capital intensive business and needs to introduce new products successfully as well as entice the world to convert to a new paradigm of automotive pro pulsion. It is too early to say any of this has been successful.

l be around in 5 years or not. It is not inconceivable that five years fro m now they will not have been successful and will have to close the doors. On the other hand, of things go according to plan they may be on the way t o becoming the largest auto maker in the world.

fs from car building stuffs. For self-driving to grow, our car makers has to adopt it. If not, they will just support something else. No car makers would support another makers' tech, no matter how good it is. For example , Tesla was far ahead in charging tech, but everybody else went to a differ ent tech.

Other car makers has to adopt it.

Reply to
edward.ming.lee

l be around in 5 years or not. It is not inconceivable that five years fro m now they will not have been successful and will have to close the doors. On the other hand, of things go according to plan they may be on the way t o becoming the largest auto maker in the world.

fs from car building stuffs. For self-driving to grow, our car makers has to adopt it. If not, they will just support something else. No car makers would support another makers' tech, no matter how good it is. For example , Tesla was far ahead in charging tech, but everybody else went to a differ ent tech.

I think your comments about other automakers adopting technology is not muc h on target. The other automakers aren't using Tesla chargers because the y can't. While Musk has indicated he would be happy to discuss sharing the network, clearly it would require substantial investment by others and to this point they are not interested in doing that. When I visited the Chevy dealer about the Bolt they were happy to tell me all about it and I had a test drive, etc. But when I asked about charging they looked very sheepish and would only say, "charging happens"... While charging is a huge advant age for Tesla, the other automakers don't need it just yet and are letting the infrastructure develop on it's own mostly. So it's not that Tesla won' t share, it's more than the other car companies aren't interested. The "te chnology" isn't different BTW. They are just power supplies controlled by the car. The only real difference is the connector used and the details of the communications. Tesla makes a Chademo adapter you can use on the Elec trify America chargers.

As to the self driving tech, the other companies would very much like to sh are that. GM is sharing with an Asian company. I would bet money that in a few years Tesla self driving tech shows up in other vehicles. This is no t something a company can produce itself in a few years. Tesla has one *hu ge* advantage which is testing their software in billions of vehicle miles on the cars they are selling.

It's not unprecedented for one car maker to support another. They have bou ght stock in each other and use parts from one another or sell cars made by others or even build assembly plants together as GM and Toyota did. I don 't see any impediment to selling/sharing self driving technology. In fact, the big issue will be insurance. It won't make sense any longer to buy yo ur own insurance since you aren't driving the car. The car maker will need to provide the insurance. I can see the automakers forming a coalition to insure all self driving cars.

--
  Rick C. 

  --- Get a 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
gnuarm.deletethisbit

ElectronDepot website is not affiliated with any of the manufacturers or service providers discussed here. All logos and trade names are the property of their respective owners.