ICEs vs EVs and the oil supply/price

I don't buy the oil glut thing. EV's still use energy.

Cheers

But there are other way of getting energy than burning fossil carbon.

And electric cars contain batteries, so the fact that solar cells generate power only during the day, and wind farms only generate power when the wind is blowing makes it easy to charge them up when these cheap sources of pow er are available.

Australia is getting into roof-top solar panels to such an extent that the people who look after the grid are worried that they'll too much power goin g the wrong way for the current grid to cope (which may even be true, but c ould well be yet another bid to allow them to invest even more in poles and wires and charge even more for their services). Thye'd welcome having a lo t of electric cars around that they could charge up when they'd got more po wer coming in than they could easily sell.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney

Yes, BEVs use energy. That doesn't mean they need petroleum.

People have done studies and found BEVs produce less carbon emissions when you include the whole process from the oil well to the ICE just like you ne ed to include the whole process of generating the electricity to run the BE V.

In the same vein, I can put enough electrons in my Tesla to run for 250 mil es for less than $10. A lot less actually because I am on ToS billing whic h makes it about $7. So if it were using the same amount of petroleum as a n ICE, wouldn't it cost about the same?

My pickup would use about $27 worth of gas. They are somewhat comparable b ecause the Tesla Model X I drive is a boat compared to the model 3. Even i f I use a vehicle that gets 25 mpg it would be around $22.00. I've noticed the price of gas has been coming down lately. $22 vs. $7. Hmmm... There' s got to be some better efficiencies somewhere. Is electricity for electri c cars subsidized?

Rick C.

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If you pay attention to the data these guys present they like to compare ap ples to oranges as well as argue both sides of the coin. So much of what t hey say is not very useful. But they do make a few points.

The first sales graph shows total "light-duty vehicle" sales going from aro und 80 million in 2015 to 110 million in 2040. Then they introduce this ot her guy's graph that shows sales going from about 85 million in 2018 to ove r 120 million by 2030. A 50% jump in sales in 12 years seems a bit odd. M aybe that discrepancy should be ironed out before drawing major conclusions .

They present no real evidence for why BEV sales will rise 40 fold over 12 y ears. I'm not even sure this is possible given the effort it would require . Early in the video they talk about GM et. al. being very slow to transit ion factories. Later they talk about how fast they can transition because of automation.

They also make it sound like oil sales will drop precipitously compared to supplies because Russia and Texas can't cooperate. That part might be true to some extent. Then they try to use the double edge sword again by talki ng about the rapid drop in the price of gas from the rapid drop in ICE sale s while at the same time pointing out that many will decide to stay with "o ld reliable" partly because of the drop in gas prices. So will it be a pre cipitous drop in gas prices because the sales of ICE vehicles drop or will the sales of ICE vehicles not drop so fast because the price of gas makes t hem more attractive?

So some truth, but a lot of speculation. I don't think there is any way th e auto market will be dominated by BEVs by 2030. If it is, I'll be Tesla i s out of business. I just don't think they could keep up with the majors t hat quickly. But then I'm pretty sure they won't have to because the major s won't be able to transition that quickly either.

BEVs will be maybe 40% of the market by 2030 in my opinion. I expect by th en BEVs will be a lot cheaper with significant drops in the price of batter ies. But I think there are a lot of John Larkins who won't give up their g as guzzlers because they like the way they sound.

I like the way my Tesla doesn't sound. :)

Rick C.

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I don't buy the "It will overload the grid" they are trying to sell. If more sources are added to a grid the current supplied by each device will diminish. The real problem is running the base load stations with little loads which is uneconomical.

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ate power only during the day, and wind farms only generate power when the wind is blowing makes it easy to charge them up when these cheap sources of power are available.

the people who look after the grid are worried that they'll too much power going the wrong way for the current grid to cope (which may even be true, b ut could well be yet another bid to allow them to invest even more in poles and wires and charge even more for their services). Thye'd welcome having a lot of electric cars around that they could charge up when they'd got mor e power coming in than they could easily sell.

I'm not sure the grid works that way. If your gadget is pumping out power into the grid the voltage will rise a tiny bit. When talking about generat ors some people say the frequency will increase a tiny bit, not so sure abo ut that. Anyway, the problem is if there is a lot of overvoltage I'm not s ure the sources are configured to automatically not push the power out. Th ey aren't connected to the main lines. The voltage on the local lines vary with local loads and other factors anyway. Anyone know for sure?

Rick C.

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erate power only during the day, and wind farms only generate power when th e wind is blowing makes it easy to charge them up when these cheap sources of power are available.

t the people who look after the grid are worried that they'll too much powe r going the wrong way for the current grid to cope (which may even be true, but could well be yet another bid to allow them to invest even more in pol es and wires and charge even more for their services). Thye'd welcome havin g a lot of electric cars around that they could charge up when they'd got m ore power coming in than they could easily sell.

r into the grid the voltage will rise a tiny bit. When talking about gener ators some people say the frequency will increase a tiny bit, not so sure a bout that. Anyway, the problem is if there is a lot of overvoltage I'm not sure the sources are configured to automatically not push the power out. They aren't connected to the main lines. The voltage on the local lines va ry with local loads and other factors anyway. Anyone know for sure?

Grid voltage and frequency are actively regulated.

When Telsa installed a 100MW capacity battery pack in South Australia, it p roceeded to take over the job of regulating frequency and voltage, and had made $A35 million for doing it when I last looked.

It's nominal job - buying solar and wind energy when power was cheap, and r eselling it when power was required and the power market had bid up prices for the next half hour's worth of power - had only made it $1.5 million ove r the same period.

The accompanying comments made it clear that a large battery pack and compu ter controlled inverters did a much better job of keeping voltage and phase where they were supposed to be than the hardware that had been doing the j ob.

Here's a more recent news report

which puts the actual cost at about $A90 million.

The state government in South Australia that bought the battery was Labor, and the current government is Liberal, which is to say, heavily influenced by the coal mining industry, and consequently not fond of the heavy renewab le component that Labor tolerated in South Australia's electricity generati ng mix.

The famous blackout that happened two years ago was caused by freak winds t hat blew down an important transmission link, but Liberal political propaga nda at the time - and subsequently - has tried to paint it as a direct cons equence of the high renewable content. It's a lie, but they seem to think t hat they can get away with it.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney

Yep, the well-to-wheel efficiency of ICE cars is terrible, around 8%. That's why they have huge radiator/active cooling structures to effectively convert your $$$ into high entropy waste heat and push it out to universe.

A fuel tank full of fuel has a much higher energy density than a battery full of charge, it's just that most of the energy in the fuel is wasted and doesn't serve any function other than to allow itself to be combusted and its energy mostly wasted.

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hen you include the whole process from the oil well to the ICE just like yo u need to include the whole process of generating the electricity to run th e BEV.

miles for less than $10. A lot less actually because I am on ToS billing which makes it about $7. So if it were using the same amount of petroleum as an ICE, wouldn't it cost about the same?

le because the Tesla Model X I drive is a boat compared to the model 3. Ev en if I use a vehicle that gets 25 mpg it would be around $22.00. I've not iced the price of gas has been coming down lately. $22 vs. $7. Hmmm... Th ere's got to be some better efficiencies somewhere. Is electricity for ele ctric cars subsidized?

Someone here did an efficiency comparison taking into account everything fr om the powerplant on in the case of BEVs and from the gas pump on in the ca se of ICEs. He found the efficiency to be about equal. However, many a sl ip twixt cup and lip. Likewise gasoline is not free of carbon release and energy consumption to reach the pump. I don't recall that was taken into a ccount, but maybe I just don't recall.

In any event, that's why I look at cost. Cost doesn't lie when it comes to energy. There is some aspect of electric cars that work significantly bet ter from energy and pollution perspectives than ICE. Then there are the ma ny other reasons why BEVs are so much better. If you took a ride in my Tes la they would become immediately apparent.

Rick C.

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Zero gas car sales in 2026? I bet not. Electrics are not practical for everyone, and the current bump in electric sales may be among enthusiasts. Like the PT Cruiser.

The US has tons of oil and NG and coal, so we can power gas cars and diesel trucks and electric vehicles. The market will decide who drives what.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics

You're not. you're looking at price.

Taxes and subsidies affect price.

--
  When I tried casting out nines I made a hash of it.

A generator does not pump power into the grid if there is no increase in load, it generates a potential that is regulated. If the load stays the same more generators will supply some of the current meaning the current from each generator drops. If the load drops significantly generators will start to drop off the grid automatically as the current drops below that set by the controlling electronics.

No, 2026 is far too optimistic and zero sales is absurd. It is likely ther e will be niche uses for ICE autos for some time to come just as there are still some needs for vacuum tubes.

Yeah, we have lots of oil, coal and natural gas, all of which is too dirty to continue using in the amounts we use them now. Yes, the market will dec ide and it is pretty clear which way the wind is blowing. It's just a matt er of time. My concern is which companies will come out on top.

The transition to BEVs from ICE will not be without speed bumps. At some p oint a maker (or makers) will produce a bunch of cars that have crap batter ies or motors that give up way too soon or just muck up the control electro nics and the cars self destruct far too early. I'm actually surprised the Tesla cars are proving to have very reliable power trains. But once the bi g iron companies are fully committed I think Tesla will get a run for their money. Tesla has done very well for a startup and accomplished something very amazing really. But they are still pretty small and they will have to continue to grow fast to stay ahead of the rest.

I'm just hoping they put more into their charging network to stay ahead of the pack in a way they just can't overcome so easily.

Rick C.

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s when you include the whole process from the oil well to the ICE just like you need to include the whole process of generating the electricity to run the BEV.

250 miles for less than $10. A lot less actually because I am on ToS billi ng which makes it about $7. So if it were using the same amount of petrole um as an ICE, wouldn't it cost about the same?

rable because the Tesla Model X I drive is a boat compared to the model 3. Even if I use a vehicle that gets 25 mpg it would be around $22.00. I've noticed the price of gas has been coming down lately. $22 vs. $7. Hmmm... There's got to be some better efficiencies somewhere. Is electricity for electric cars subsidized?

ry

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g from the powerplant on in the case of BEVs and from the gas pump on in th e case of ICEs. He found the efficiency to be about equal. However, many a slip twixt cup and lip. Likewise gasoline is not free of carbon release and energy consumption to reach the pump. I don't recall that was taken in to account, but maybe I just don't recall.

Uh, ok. Are you suggesting electricity is being subsidized? I think Bill will tell you how oil is being subsidized. Did you have a point or are you just trying to make noise?

Rick C.

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nerate power only during the day, and wind farms only generate power when t he wind is blowing makes it easy to charge them up when these cheap sources of power are available.

at the people who look after the grid are worried that they'll too much pow er going the wrong way for the current grid to cope (which may even be true , but could well be yet another bid to allow them to invest even more in po les and wires and charge even more for their services). Thye'd welcome havi ng a lot of electric cars around that they could charge up when they'd got more power coming in than they could easily sell.

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ower into the grid the voltage will rise a tiny bit. When talking about ge nerators some people say the frequency will increase a tiny bit, not so sur e about that. Anyway, the problem is if there is a lot of overvoltage I'm not sure the sources are configured to automatically not push the power out . They aren't connected to the main lines. The voltage on the local lines vary with local loads and other factors anyway. Anyone know for sure?

it proceeded to take over the job of regulating frequency and voltage, and had made $A35 million for doing it when I last looked.

nd reselling it when power was required and the power market had bid up pri ces for the next half hour's worth of power - had only made it $1.5 million over the same period.

omputer controlled inverters did a much better job of keeping voltage and p hase where they were supposed to be than the hardware that had been doing t he job.

or, and the current government is Liberal, which is to say, heavily influen ced by the coal mining industry, and consequently not fond of the heavy ren ewable component that Labor tolerated in South Australia's electricity gene rating mix.

ds that blew down an important transmission link, but Liberal political pro paganda at the time - and subsequently - has tried to paint it as a direct consequence of the high renewable content. It's a lie, but they seem to thi nk that they can get away with it.

The type of generator on PV panels doesn't give a rat's rear about the load . It has no way of knowing the load. It just maximizes the power produced by the PV panels and pumps that onto the power grid. It is then up to som eone else to deal with the effect of that extra 5 kW.

Rick C.

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The output volts are not regulated ??? If there were no load on the grid where would it "pump" the power ??

I found the 'only hotel solar powered' to be amusing. They imply that all t he power is solar. My guess is overall, maybe 10% comes from the panels. AC units consume LARGE amounts of power and in Chicagoland in summer it's not

ower and the panels are dead and even with battery storage, I seriously dou bt they have excess power during the day.

As for electric cars you have 3 serious problems in winter in cold climates . The car is harder to move because everything stiffens up - tires, lubrica nts and just driving on snow is equivalent to a constant incline. The batte ries are less effective in the cold and the driver doesn't want to be in a cold car. You don't have an engine with waste heat to tap into which means using electricity for heat. Granted a heat pump (are those used in cars?) i s less wasteful than resistive heating but you don't have that much to begi n with. Then the 'fun' part. Re fueling can take hours and your range can d rop to less than half. Just what I want. Drive 150 miles and then charge f or an hour and drive another 150 miles. Hybrids make a whole lot more sense .

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generate power only during the day, and wind farms only generate power when the wind is blowing makes it easy to charge them up when these cheap sourc es of power are available.

that the people who look after the grid are worried that they'll too much p ower going the wrong way for the current grid to cope (which may even be tr ue, but could well be yet another bid to allow them to invest even more in poles and wires and charge even more for their services). Thye'd welcome ha ving a lot of electric cars around that they could charge up when they'd go t more power coming in than they could easily sell.

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power into the grid the voltage will rise a tiny bit. When talking about generators some people say the frequency will increase a tiny bit, not so s ure about that. Anyway, the problem is if there is a lot of overvoltage I' m not sure the sources are configured to automatically not push the power o ut. They aren't connected to the main lines. The voltage on the local lin es vary with local loads and other factors anyway. Anyone know for sure?

, it proceeded to take over the job of regulating frequency and voltage, an d had made $A35 million for doing it when I last looked.

and reselling it when power was required and the power market had bid up p rices for the next half hour's worth of power - had only made it $1.5 milli on over the same period.

computer controlled inverters did a much better job of keeping voltage and phase where they were supposed to be than the hardware that had been doing the job.

abor, and the current government is Liberal, which is to say, heavily influ enced by the coal mining industry, and consequently not fond of the heavy r enewable component that Labor tolerated in South Australia's electricity ge nerating mix.

inds that blew down an important transmission link, but Liberal political p ropaganda at the time - and subsequently - has tried to paint it as a direc t consequence of the high renewable content. It's a lie, but they seem to t hink that they can get away with it.

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load. It has no way of knowing the load. It just maximizes the power prod uced by the PV panels and pumps that onto the power grid. It is then up to someone else to deal with the effect of that extra 5 kW.

If pigs had wings they would fly. Why would you ask such a pointless quest ion?

Rick C.

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the power is solar. My guess is overall, maybe 10% comes from the panels. AC units consume LARGE amounts of power and in Chicagoland in summer it's n

power and the panels are dead and even with battery storage, I seriously d oubt they have excess power during the day.

es. The car is harder to move because everything stiffens up - tires, lubri cants and just driving on snow is equivalent to a constant incline. The bat teries are less effective in the cold and the driver doesn't want to be in a cold car. You don't have an engine with waste heat to tap into which mean s using electricity for heat. Granted a heat pump (are those used in cars?) is less wasteful than resistive heating but you don't have that much to be gin with. Then the 'fun' part. Re fueling can take hours and your range can drop to less than half. Just what I want. Drive 150 miles and then charge for an hour and drive another 150 miles. Hybrids make a whole lot more sen se.

All that and yet BEVs are very popular in Norway. Go figure. I guess the Norwegians just drive to the store and back. Do a YouTube search on Bj? ?rn Nyland. He has a lot of videos of the crazy stuff he does with a mod el X. Yeah, he has some issues, but for the most part the cars just keep o n truckin'.

The winter effects are there, but they don't make BEVs a no-go for cold cli mates. Maybe you wouldn't want one if you lived in Barrow, Alaska. But fo r the rest of us they are just fine.

Rick C.

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