Fauci: Masks, Social Distancing Likely Until 2022

"Coronavirus vaccines -- once approved and distributed widely to the public -- won?t be a ?knockout punch? that eradicates the virus, he said. Instead, he expects the process to take time and anticipat es a 70% effectiveness rate for an approved vaccine."

formatting link
ly-until-2022

I wonder if the 70% effectiveness anticipated for the vaccine is influenced by all the money that's been spent on them. The history of immunizing agai nst lower respiratory track infections is just not that good.

formatting link

The effectiveness of the mask is beyond 99.9% and it doesn't cost nearly as much. People just aren't interested in something that doesn't cost a lot o f money and requires a little bit of discipline.

Reply to
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred
Loading thread data ...

ic -- won?t be a ?knockout punch? that eradicates t he virus, he said. Instead, he expects the process to take time and anticip ates a 70% effectiveness rate for an approved vaccine."

kely-until-2022

ed by all the money that's been spent on them. The history of immunizing ag ainst lower respiratory track infections is just not that good.

as much. People just aren't interested in something that doesn't cost a lot of money and requires a little bit of discipline.

None of these masks will be 99.9% effective when worn. It is virtually imp ossible to achieve that level of seal against the skin with a simple constr uction. So 95% effective measured is probably as good as 99.9% measured wh en it comes to real world conditions.

What's more important is that masks offer somewhat less protection when not worn on the face at all. And I personally believe it is even more importa nt to understand that it is even MORE important to realize that no mask or social distancing or any of the other measures will assure that you are pro tected. The benefit of taking protective measures is in reducing the rate of infection over the population as a whole.

The bottom line is you can't live in a bubble... unless you live in a bubbl e. The best way to fight this disease is to practice the best self protect ive measures you can and allow the disease to spread at an ever reducing ra te until it can be managed with contact tracing... and actually do effectiv e contact tracing.

MD and VA are presently not in the group of states with significantly risin g infection rates. The infection and death rates are not as high as many s tates, but they are higher than many countries with the similar populations . South Korea is amazing with fewer total infections and deaths than the U S has in one day.

Why can't we learn from those who are making it work???

--
  Rick C. 

  - Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
Ricketty C

ing infection rates. The infection and death rates are not as high as many states, but they are higher than many countries with the similar population s. South Korea is amazing with fewer total infections and deaths than the U S has in one day.

It's called "American exceptionalism" and depends on the idea that America is unique - which it was at one point, until everybody else noticed it was doing remarkably well and copied the good bits. They also rejected some of the founding tax evaders less useful innovations - the executive presidenc y and the electoral college come to mind. American exceptionalists think th at the grab-bag of innovations that founding tax evaders put together was s ome kind of complete prescription for a perfect society and pay no attentio n to anything that's done in the rest-of-the-world, which isn't a perfect c opy of what they've got, and correspondingly irrelevant.

It's the worst kind of magical thinking, but remarkably popular in America. James Arthur articulates it here from time to time. John Doe expresses muc h the same opinion rather less elegantly. They are both nuts.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

"We are not going to control the pandemic. We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas," White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."

From the "Things everyone knows"-department. By "we get" in this context he likely means White House staff, I suppose.

"What we need to do is make sure that we have the proper mitigation factors, whether it's therapies or vaccines or treatments to make sure that people don't die from this," Meadows said.

By "people" he means "people who matter."

Reply to
bitrex

"We are not going to control the pandemic. We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas," White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."

From the "Things everyone knows"-department. By "we get" in this context he likely means White House staff, I suppose.

"What we need to do is make sure that we have the proper mitigation factors, whether it's therapies or vaccines or treatments to make sure that people don't die from this," Meadows said.

By "people" he means "people who matter."

Yes, they engage in magical thinking a lot, they fully believe that so long as the right people (themselves) are able to stay in power to continue making none of the right decisions, the overall consequences will still be better than if someone other than them had made some of the right ones.

The old joke used to be "You can always count on an American to do the right thing after all other options are exhausted" and they're out to prove that old saw wrong, you can always just start recycling exhausted options.

Reply to
bitrex

Are you saying that you won't get any of it?

Reply to
Michael Terrell

e

Bitrex is doing a useful job, and making money. He probably will some spill

-over after the really rich have been looked after.

Michael Terrell is even further down the pecking order.

And the way to end the epidemic is to make sure that nobody at all is infec ted, and the Trump administration can't imagine that this is possible (thou gh some other countries have managed it), and certainly aren't going to spe nd enough money or slow down the economy enough to let this happen.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
Bill Sloman

Terrell is an eliminationalist - no eliminationalist would ever dream his favored group of goons would ever put him on the hit list accidentally, much less on purpose.

Reply to
bitrex

Ancient Chinese proverb: Man who wants to die for his country often given job appropriate to his skillset.

Reply to
bitrex

I believe the initial criteria was a *50%* effectivity for a vaccine. And, of course, you have to TAKE it, rely on those around you to also take it (to address the potential ineffectiveness of your single instance), hope that there are no adverse side effects (there always are though hopefully not frequent enough to be an issue), hope that the virus doesn't mutate in the coming year(s), etc.

And, of course, you may not be medically capable of taking the vaccine! Thus, truly reliant on "herd immunity" to keep yourself safe (barring other interventions)

Our ice cream salesman goobernor (AZ) drank the trump-ade early on. And, expressly forbid the democratic mayors of the largest metropolitan areas in the state from enacting any tougher regulations.

"Arizonans are responsible people and will Do The Right Thing (TmReg)!"

Then, he watched AZ panned in the national press for how poorly it was handling the outbreak.

"Ooops! I sure as hell don't want to get tagged as responsible for this mess -- by my lame restrictions and prohibitions against more stingent "local" restrictions. So, I'll let the mayors enact their own safeguards (yet will avoid taking the "blame" from the denialists for imposing anything statewide)."

Our infection/mortality rate dropped with the introduction of masks, social distancing, limited occupancy constraints, etc. While masks are mandated in most establishments, there's very little done to ensure the quality and effectiveness of the masks (folks not covering their noses, masks that don't seal against the face well and let air leak out the top/sides, folks still using bandanas, folks using VENTED N95 masks -- medical facilities won't allow you inside wearing one! D'uh!)

Then, school came along. And all of the colleges took the same attitude as the goobernor "Our students are responsible adults and will Do The Right Thing" (yeah, like none of them would EVER consider underage drinking, skipping class, unprotected sex, DUI, etc. Un-huh!).

And, folks started rationalizing that they could gather in small groups (backyards) cuz it's just like eating outdoors! No need to wear a mask -- just sit 6 feet apart!

(No one has explained to these folks that it's an integration effect; more time means more transferred virus, regardless of how effective the distance/masking appear to be! Spending 4 hours in your backyard, unmasked, with guests, is probably just as bad as spending many minutes face-to-face with those same folks!)

And, folks decided that a lexan face shield was just so much BETTER than a cloth mask! (who told them this?)

So, the numbers are headed in the wrong direction, again.

I guess I feel sorry for these people, to some extent. (most are not suffering financially... retirees, etc.) But, it's amusing to see how the same folks who were glued to their cell phones despite the presence of warm bodies immediately nearby are now, suddenly, CRAVING personal contact!

I wonder how they would have fared in England during The Blitz? ("I can't stand living in a darkened house with the shades drawn! I'm going to turn on all the lights and exercise my FREEDOM!!")

OTOH, I only wear a mask when in stores -- and that's very infrequent (even before the pandemic). I can't imagine what it would be like to WORK in those stores and be wearing one all day long!

We're now speculating as to whether our normal influx of Winter Visitors will manifest, this year. Or, will they decide they can be "locked in" back home just as easily as they can, here? (esp as most of the "free entertainment" that they rely on to occupy their time is no longer available. and, many restaurants have either closed or severely restricted seating -- even though we can dine outdoors throughout the winter months).

I wonder how "getting sick" thousands of miles from "home" will figure into their calculus??

Reply to
Don Y

More like Dachau 1944 but in this alternate history the Germans line themselves up to go to their own death camp. I've heard it said that history repeats twice, once as tragedy and the second, if not comedy at least the ironic version.

Reply to
bitrex

ising infection rates. The infection and death rates are not as high as man y states, but they are higher than many countries with the similar populati ons. South Korea is amazing with fewer total infections and deaths than the US has in one day.

a is unique - which it was at one point, until everybody else noticed it wa s doing remarkably well and copied the good bits. They also rejected some o f the founding tax evaders less useful innovations - the executive presiden cy and the electoral college come to mind. American exceptionalists think t hat the grab-bag of innovations that founding tax evaders put together was some kind of complete prescription for a perfect society and pay no attenti on to anything that's done in the rest-of-the-world, which isn't a perfect copy of what they've got, and correspondingly irrelevant.

a. James Arthur articulates it here from time to time. John Doe expresses m uch the same opinion rather less elegantly. They are both nuts.

There you go again with more of your pretense of wisdom and expertise you d on't have. The exceptionalism bullshit is a continuation of the original Am erica First movement which was originally grounded in eugenics and fascism. This all leads back to the untold story of 400 years of white trash again .

formatting link
The isolation campaign was just a ruse. They wanted a complete Nazi takeove r of Europe.

Reply to
Fred Bloggs

blic

the virus, he said. Instead,

rate

nced

They'll go lower than that in practice. The way things are now with a proje cted half million deaths by February, they'll do 15%.

),

t

The side effects of the virus are far worse than anything the vaccine can d o. A lot of these technologies have been around decades so they really have been studied longer than people know. Serious side effects would have show n up by now. Let the virus go ahead and mutate. The vaccine specificity wil l not be affected by it.

If the vaccine truly imparts neutralizing immunity, it won't matter if ever yone gets it or not, as far as your protection goes.

The monoclonals, mABs, are another that have been in research and use for a bout 45 years. They're mainly used for cancer therapeutics with nearly a hu ndred being approved for that use. The antivirus COVID-19 use is really at the low end of their spectrum of complexity. What the mABs really need is a breakthrough in mass production technology. They're still difficult to man ufacture and are therefore very expensive.

y as

t of

ing

)

Sorry state of affairs in U.S.

Reply to
Fred Bloggs

Possibly. The 50% comment I'd seen was from months ago. Note that flu vaccines are typically "disappointing" if they only achieve 60%!

Yes, but there aren't just two choices -- vaccine or virus. There is also a real possibility of avoiding the virus AND the side effects of a vaccine until better treatments are available, etc.

That hasn't been the case with other corona virii. Predicting the future is always a tough game!

You've neglected the rest of my comment -- you might not be ABLE to take the vaccine! My other half is allergic to compounds found in almost all vaccines. A "flu shot", "shingles vaccine", etc. will result in her hospitalization. Her protection lies in not being exposed to the virii as well as me not bringing anything into the house.

It's not a practical WIDESPREAD solution. So, unless you have a dozen doctors attending to your needs and live in a big white house, you're unlikely to have them available "on demand". Specialty treatments that rely on timeliness of administration are notoriously underperformers (due to problems of access)

I suspect the "bigger hammer" will be more effective treatments and not immunizations. But, it will have to be a readily available (i.e., not *effectively* rationed) treatment that is safe to administer without lots of preconditions/indications.

E.g., you treat a patient suspected of heart attack a certain way and worry about whether or not he's actually HAD a heart attack, later!

Reply to
Don Y

Official C19 US deaths are running about 800 per day now and mostly flat, down from the April peak of 2200. The death rate would have to spike radically to hit half a million by mid-Feb.

The US is #10 in per-capita deaths. Mexico is creeping up on us.

Belguim is having a huge second case spike, approaching 10x the first, April, one. And it's still curving up. And it seems somewhat deadly.

Netherlands is similar. France too. The US is not uniquely stupid or anything.

Reply to
John Larkin

You mean like the 500% increase we saw in AZ from June 20th to July 20th? Note that was JUNE, not the 1800% increase we saw nationally from Mar 20 to Apr 20 (when, you can argue, folks didn't "know better").

Mexico doesn't *claim* to have The World's Best Healthcare! And, living conditions, in general, in MX are a fair bit worse than in the US.

So, you're using "other people are stupid, too" as a defense for YOUR stupidity? Are you a 3rd grader who claims "Tommy's Mom let's HIM stay up late..."?

Reply to
Don Y

Every place that gets hit by this virus starts with exponential growth. You can pick a start point and compute 18,000 per cent if you want.

Most every place peaks and declines too. This virus has a fairly repeatable life cycle.

New York had a gigantic, and very deadly, peak in April. Arizona peaked about two months later.

The first peak, actually the rising edge of the first peak, seems to be the deadly one.

Maybe it isn't a matter of stupidity at all. We might discuss what could actually be happening, if you were willing to stop shreiking and think some. Seems unlikely.

Reply to
John Larkin

Oops, my mistake. You were already on my ignore-this-guy list.

Reply to
John Larkin

Try xnews. It has a plonk file

formatting link

Setup and config info on the web.

--
Science teaches us to trust. - sw
Reply to
Steve Wilson

public

es the virus, he said. Instead,

ess rate

luenced

g

ojected half million deaths by February, they'll do 15%.

nce),

sn't

n do. A lot of these technologies have been around decades so they really h ave been studied longer than people know. Serious side effects would have s hown up by now. Let the virus go ahead and mutate. The vaccine specificity will not be affected by it.

veryone gets it or not, as far as your protection goes.

r about 45 years. They're mainly used for cancer therapeutics with nearly a hundred being approved for that use. The antivirus COVID-19 use is really at the low end of their spectrum of complexity. What the mABs really need i s a breakthrough in mass production technology. They're still difficult to manufacture and are therefore very expensive.

!

arly as

lot of

d,

as

"
s

ds

ything

uh!)

e

s

an

rs

Many countries are having a second wave, but very few are claiming how grea t they are managing their individual disasters and even less are telling th eir populations not to worry, this disease is a breeze to get through.

It is amazing to me that anyone can look at data... raw, unbiased data, and put their own personal spin on every data point they observe. I guess the y just ignore anything that doesn't fit their world view.

South Korea is showing the world how to manage this disease even with their second wave completed where they reached a high 7 day average of 343 new i nfections per day in a country of 51 million. Japan with 126 million popul ation has only ever had an average infection rate of 1,442 which is just 2% of the US 70,000 per day figure with a population not even 3 times greater .

It's not rocket science. It is amazingly simple, but the US has literally some of the dumbest people in the world. Trump has already talked about ho w dumb our WWII soldiers were to get killed or captured. He put down McCai n for having been captured. The US is a country of losers, led by the grea test loser of them all.

Hail loser!

--
  Rick C. 

  + Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging 
 Click to see the full signature
Reply to
Ricketty C

ElectronDepot website is not affiliated with any of the manufacturers or service providers discussed here. All logos and trade names are the property of their respective owners.