Comet C/2013 A1 -- very close approach to Mars

Just discovered January 3rd, 2013, there is a finite probability of a collision of a large Oort cloud object with Mars on October 19, 2014. It's coming through the orbital plane from a steeper angle than Pluto, but looks as though it will come surprisingly close (or possibly hit) Mars. The object size is unknown at this point, but estimates place the size anywhere from perhaps as little as 10km to as much as

50km in diameter. (Absolute magnitude is 10.3.) In short -- big. Because it is retrograde, the estimated approach velocity to Mars is significant -- perhaps more than 56 km/s.

Interesting reports on current orbital elements as they develop are found below The first link is the initial announcement and the 2nd link was updated today with new observations and a refined set of elements. The original estimate put it to a distance of 703 microAU from Mars' surface. Today's estimate adjusts this to about 249 microAU from Mars' surface.

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Decent orbital simulation using earlier orbital parameters follows:

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You can change your perspectives on it, which is nice. That simulation places it about 703 microAU from Mars, per the earlier orbital elements.

Worth a look.

A blog on the topic:

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Jon

Reply to
Jon Kirwan
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Neat! Thanks,

George H.

Reply to
George Herold

e-collision-with-mars/

g=0;cad=1#orb

Let's get the word out. This is a serious close approach event. It may not get close to earth but it may make for some fun comet watching.

?-)

Reply to
josephkk

Yesterday's new measurements put it slightly further away from Mars, at perhaps 459 microAU. More to come each day, I suppose.

The comet will be less than .9 AU from Earth about two months before it encounters Mars, but in the southern hemisphere and about 1.6AU from the sun at that time, I think. By the time it passes by Mars (which is also just about it's closest approach to the sun, as well, at about 1.4 AU), it will be more than 1.6 AU away from us and proceeding rapidly away from us after that. Unfortunately for us in the northern hemisphere, as it gets really close to the sun and nears Mars, Earth's tilt will be such that the northern hemisphere is tilting almost directly away.

I'm hoping it is very interesting to see, just the same.

Jon

Reply to
Jon Kirwan

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