a dangerous positive-feedback loop

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A new dangerous positive-feedback loop is accelerating Antarctic melting: freshwater injection at the sea surface replaces cold sinking saltwater, allows warm subsurface seawater to advance inland and rapidly melt glacier base.

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    - Win
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Winfield Hill
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Relax, take your life vest off, have a nice glass of wine.

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Just pray that the comimg ice age won't be too bad.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics
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John Larkin

:

allows

.

Almost three years old and obsolete study. You really think you're going to get a mass gain at temperatures at the poles averaging 40oF above normal? You're a special kind of stupid if do. Ice loss is accelerating, everything is accelerating because of positive feedback effects finally producing mea surable results.

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bloggs.fredbloggs.fred

So utters Chicken Little >:-} ...Jim Thompson

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| James E.Thompson                                 |    mens     | 
| Analog Innovations                               |     et      | 
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Jim Thompson

I can make a fortune selling big beds that people can hide under. You get a special discount.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
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John Larkin

I think peoples' fear system is like their immune systems. Sort of an AGC system: in the absence of true threats, the sensitivity ramps up until we get allergies and neurosis. That probably evolved to be protective.

It is nice that the WashPost (like our local San Francisco Comical) occasionally gives us a break from All Trump Every Page for a little refreshing AGW doom.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
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John Larkin

Probably causes pimples too >:-}

...Jim Thompson

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| James E.Thompson                                 |    mens     | 
| Analog Innovations                               |     et      | 
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Jim Thompson

Oh, chickens are still around, are they? How about the distress cries of Allosaurus Little, Diplodicus Little, Stegosaurus Little, and Trilobyte Little, and all that crew?

Worrisome predictions are a guide to the future, just like any other predictions. Use 'em, or lose.

Reply to
whit3rd

:

allows

.

Probably a waste of time. If we hadn't burned all that fossil carbon, the n ext ice age wouldn't have been due for a few tens of thousnads of years - t his was always going to be a long interglacial.

And John Larkin didn't read the NASA report carefully enough. The Antarcti c ice sheet as whole is gaining mass - as you'd expect with warmer oceans p ushing more water vapour into the atmosphere - but the west antarctic ice s heet is losing ice, as it slides off faster into the ocean than the extra s now is adding mass to the top.

It can slide a lot faster, and there's a couple of metres of sea level rise coming up quickly when it it does. More of what we saw at the end of the l ast ice, albeit with different ice sheets.

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Bill sloman, sydney 
Bill Sloman, Sydney
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bill.sloman

The bird-brained response. What you'd expect from Jim-out-of-touch-with-reality-Thompson.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

ue/

ing:

er, allows

ase.

to get a mass gain at temperatures at the poles averaging 40oF above norma l? You're a special kind of stupid if do. Ice loss is accelerating, everyth ing is accelerating because of positive feedback effects finally producing measurable results.

Probably not. When the ice sheets do start sliding off, the people living i n low-lying coastal areas aren't going to see much benefit from hiding unde r the bed when the sea-water level reaches their local floor level.

There are business plans and business plans. This one sounds unrealistic en ough to feature on "The Apprentice".

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

e/

ng:

r, allows

se.

next ice age wouldn't have been due for a few tens of thousnads of years - this was always going to be a long interglacial.

tic ice sheet as whole is gaining mass - as you'd expect with warmer oceans pushing more water vapour into the atmosphere - but the west antarctic ice sheet is losing ice, as it slides off faster into the ocean than the extra snow is adding mass to the top.

se coming up quickly when it it does. More of what we saw at the end of the last ice, albeit with different ice sheets.

The thing with the west antarctic is the ice is sitting in a bowl. Water is just now flooding the bottom of the bowl by eroding the previously sealed interface with warm water. When this happens the ice will start floating, a nd because the ice a conglomeration of fractured regions, it will then star t breaking apart and fall into ocean to be swept away by the currents. So y ou can expect to see big chunks of it falling into the ocean versus a slow melt or slide.

Reply to
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred

rue/

ting:

ter, allows

base.

he next ice age wouldn't have been due for a few tens of thousnads of years - this was always going to be a long interglacial.

rctic ice sheet as whole is gaining mass - as you'd expect with warmer ocea ns pushing more water vapour into the atmosphere - but the west antarctic i ce sheet is losing ice, as it slides off faster into the ocean than the ext ra snow is adding mass to the top.

rise coming up quickly when it it does. More of what we saw at the end of t he last ice, albeit with different ice sheets.

is just now flooding the bottom of the bowl by eroding the previously seale d interface with warm water. When this happens the ice will start floating, and because the ice a conglomeration of fractured regions, it will then st art breaking apart and fall into ocean to be swept away by the currents. So you can expect to see big chunks of it falling into the ocean versus a slo w melt or slide.

That's the broad outline. The mechanics of the "slide off into the ocean" p hase are hard to predict, because there's a lot of ice there, with a lot of features, none of which are easy to see or well mapped.

There's historical evidence - from the end of the most recent ice age - tha t when and ice sheet starts to move fast it moves very quickly indeed, and you get huge ice masses out on the ocean, dropping accidental boulders onto the sea bed a long way off-shore, but that kind of activity is hard to mod el and consequently hard to forecast.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

no the govt should just consider the cost of that when they make energy decisions.

problem is Republicans can't plan strategically, they just go for short-term gains.

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Reply to
Jasen Betts

But it might only take a few decades for Antarctica?s growth to reverse, according to Zwally. ?If the losses of the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica continue to increase at the same rate they?ve been increasing for the last two decades, the losses will catch up with the long-term gain in East Antarctica in 20 or 30 years -- I don?t think there will be enough snowfall increase to offset these losses.?

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Reply to
Jasen Betts

The usual state of this planet is covered by kilometers of ice. We are now in a lovely but unusual interglacial. Past interglacials, with CO2 up to 6000 PPM, were when we had gigantic proliferation of life.

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There are hints that solar activity may be trending down. A few degrees C increase would cause a little disruption in places, but would be overall beneficial to life, as would more CO2. A few degrees drop, and less CO2, another ice age, would indeed threaten most life on Earth.

We need more nukes. We need to reserve all available methane, in the ground and deep in the ocean, so we can pump it into the atmosphere to make enough greenhouse effect to mitigate the next ice age.

Don't be afraid of warming. Be afraid of ice.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 

lunatic fringe electronics
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John Larkin

e:

-true/

elting:

water, allows

r base.

the next ice age wouldn't have been due for a few tens of thousnads of yea rs - this was always going to be a long interglacial.

tarctic ice sheet as whole is gaining mass - as you'd expect with warmer oc eans pushing more water vapour into the atmosphere - but the west antarctic ice sheet is losing ice, as it slides off faster into the ocean than the e xtra snow is adding mass to the top.

l rise coming up quickly when it it does. More of what we saw at the end of the last ice, albeit with different ice sheets.

r is just now flooding the bottom of the bowl by eroding the previously sea led interface with warm water. When this happens the ice will start floatin g, and because the ice a conglomeration of fractured regions, it will then start breaking apart and fall into ocean to be swept away by the currents. So you can expect to see big chunks of it falling into the ocean versus a s low melt or slide.

phase are hard to predict, because there's a lot of ice there, with a lot of features, none of which are easy to see or well mapped.

hat when and ice sheet starts to move fast it moves very quickly indeed, an d you get huge ice masses out on the ocean, dropping accidental boulders on to the sea bed a long way off-shore, but that kind of activity is hard to m odel and consequently hard to forecast.

Then there's this:

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os-antarctica

Reply to
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred

I was walking around with Mo and I estimated that 10% of the people out on the street were clinically insane. She contradicted me; she thinks it's 50%.

The number of people who live in fear is probably 90%.

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John Larkin         Highland Technology, Inc 
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Reply to
John Larkin

e/

ng:

r, allows

se.

losses

You obviously know next to nothing. Unless some huge mountain range appears or a vast expanse of ocean opens up, there is little chance of the Earth e ntering a new ice age. See the section on atmospheric carbon dioxide:

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Reply to
bloggs.fredbloggs.fred

e/

ng:

r, allows

se.

losses

It isn't. The planet has been in the unusual state of having ice ages - whe re appreciable chunks of the northern hemisphere have kilometre thick ice s heets most of the time - for the past couple of million years.

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This has been drawn to John Larkin's attention whenever he posts this fatuo us claim, but he's a little slow to get the message.

CO2

Interglacials in the current ice age are associated with CO2 levels around

270ppm.

The most recent seriously warm period, The Eocene-Paleocene Thermal Maximum some 65 million years ago, probably was caused by a CO2 spike, but to no h igher than 2500ppm. Higher values are much earlier, when the sun was smalle r, and consequently radiating less heat.

This goes back half a million years, and the CO2 levels were cycling betwee n 270ppm (interglacial) and 180ppm(ice age).

He means sun-spot numbers, not power output, though he probably doesn't rea lise it.

Be afraid of ignorant half-wits republishing total nonsense.

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Bill Sloman, Sydney
Reply to
bill.sloman

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